I don't usually pay attention to chart technicals too much, but it seems a great looking ' J-Hook ' pattern is developing today. Of course, you don't want to trade based on the chart readings unless you are a day-trader or a short-term swing-trader. However, this type of chart pattern appearing in turn after a surge to panic short sales and profit taking, and to low volume drifting side way, can tell us the immediate term pps movement forecast. the next few weeks will be very impressive imho. This timing also represents a great buying opportunity as an entering point ( or accumulation and average-down for existing longs.) GLTA.
This was the lowest shorting volume ever since I started to watch after galaxy trial termination. Short movement tells much about the share price for short-term trend (2 ~ 3 weeks and even further out to 3 ~ 6 months.) For SNTA, not having a lot of new short interests kicking in, and confirmed bottom from yesterday's closing, today will be the day for the remaining shorts to cover that pps will go down a little but without any significant variation at low trade volume. Tomorrow, we will see the green on the chart, but next week will be the week to witness the true uptrend in this stock. By the way, Zacks' Analysts finally initiated their interests on this stock, which can be good or bad (I never trust what Zacks say. They are always a tempo behind.) I am not going to post the short volume report anymore from tomorrow unless there is any significant issue or changes that we need to know. Good luck to you all, and Hope you the successful trading.
I can surely be wrong, but imho based on what the short trade trend has been showing so far, the pps will gradually rise to .40 +/- level next week to beginning part of May, and then it may start shoot up again responding to Q1 Earning Report as I am thinking there should be some more positive news coming. (Remember? The merger was preplanned and put together by SNTA director(s) and investor Kovner. And I am certain there is something that they are not disclosing yet.) If this surge happens, the very heavy effort to drive the pps over to $1 will impact the market that it can actually be possible.
Talking of technicals, Without currently having any established resistance level, pps can quickly rise in the staircase model to reach $0.74 setting a new resistance within a next couple of weeks. If it happens, the $1.00 plateau that many mentioned on this message board may well be passed through. Best luck to everybody.
High volatility, which is the great sign showing this stock is alive and getting lots of attention. One interesting thing we can guess looking at the trading pattern is that pretty much all types of traders are into this right now (day traders, swing traders, longs, shorts, new acquisitions or accumulations, profit takers, averaging downs...) When this happens, usually it means the possible surge to the next level. Based on many of us on this board were forecasting that happened and happening, breaking through 200 ma ($0.47) looks very near. As I and many others had said or agreed even before the merger announcement, anything under $0.60 still (even more now) looks very healthy and profitable entry point. I'm not sure whether pps will go up again tomorrow, or slight pull back or sideline, but it certainly looks like it will go on the path of J-Hook pattern. Somebody who posted here a few days ago said he needs 7 times of the current pps to break even on his investment he made in year(s) back. At this stage, I'd like to say who know whether it will be done? Do you remember what happened to CPXX? Anything can happen. I wish many longs who trusted Snta can recoup and be profitable again. GLTA.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Another enhancing news, this time about the early termination on Synta's leased business location. (Original lease expires on November 30th, but agreed to early terminate and vacate the space by May 1st.) First of all, this news confirms that the merger plan is proceeding on the schedule as some people were skeptical whether it will really be completed. Also, this news self-answered many investors' concern about what Synta will do with its current facility because the annual rent payment of over $365,000 that adds up close to $1.1 million per quarter was not the amount that can simply be ignored. As per their merger agreement, they will now, if they have not already done it, try to secure a new real estate premises in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania to use it as the merged company's new location (headquarters). Good thing that the current locations of Synta (Massachusettes) and Madrigal (Pennsylvania) were close enough to each other that it will be economically affordable to move all the testing equipment and F.F.&E. As we all know, Paul Friedman CEO/Chairman elected for the new company was resigned from director position at Synta as of the day of merger announcement, so most likely some of Synta's existing employees are in the process of relocating and some are resigned. We don't know yet how many researchers and general employees Midregal has at this moment, but they will probably not hire any more new ones, not for awhile. Overall, this new merger plan will eventually save some overall overhead costs. Lastly, Synta's balance sheet shows they have about $420k worth of equipment and $1.21 million research/test related assets that the new company may not need to purchase any new ones, once again, at least not for awhile. We can safely conclude that this merger is a very successul one. Good luck to you all !
Some people may get confused about the structure of this merger as if SNTA is taking over MADRIGAL. But it is NOT. Rather, MADRIGAL is taking over SNTA by buying 64% of SNTA. What is the difference? MADRIGAL's asset that nobody knows yet as they are a privately held company at this very moment.
One of the posters named "endoramaglobal" did the calculation from the prospective view of SNTA taking over MADRIGAL. One big piece he did not consider is the asset of MADRIGAL. What if the current asset of MADRIGAL is over $100 million? (just as an example.) The pps after the merger will be? Not knowing the asset of MADRIGAL, nobody is able to calculate the immediate future value of pps nor market cap after the merger completion. But one thing we can make an experienced guess is that MADRIGAL's asset is much more than SNTA's (at least by the ratio of merger.), and if it is, pps should settle at much higher than today's. SNTA made a great decision that created a true win-win situation for both companies as MADRIGAL now does not go through IPO process. If pps goes above $1, why still r/s? One of the major reasons is to satisfy institutional shareholders? (We as shareholders of SNTA, need to vote for this merger.)
Speaking of CPXX, I only have the regrets that I should have bought more, but then again who knew, right? good luck to you and thanks for the good posts.
Although recent severe price drop was due to the termination of Galaxy 3 trial in phase III, SNTA still has other on-going mature projects in phase I, II and III. Further, still has a great amount of cash that will last throughout this year up to probably the mid 2017 considering the fact that the expenses are significantly reduced now. With one or two positive news, pps will easily run back over to a dollar. Let's wait and see. Time will tell. GLTA.
When it dropped from $2.37 (on 2/22/16) to $1.49 (on 3/10/16 just 5 days before it shot over $9), who would have except a few lucky ones possibly imagine? A month later, it is staying at around high $15's. (over 10 baggers...) Of course I am not saying the same thing will happen to SNTA. But what I am doing differently this time is that I try not to ignore the possibility (backed up by the facts). Just trying to learn from my regretful mistake. Wish all of you the best.
Comparison of 5-days short trade activities (from pre-merger announcement to bottom price settlement), shows and proves that the one day surge responding to the merger announcement was neither a bubble nor pump & dump. As if it was teaching the textbook trade formula, the price has nicely settled down at $0.3251 (36% gain from pre-merger announcement) creating a new support. As it was predicted and agreed by many posters on this board, the pps from this point on will be upside trending even without any news because the strong sentiment was built on the fact that 'one-day-surge' has survived through short attack and profit taking sell off. It seems that $1.00 target will very well be achieved. Good Luck To You All !
4/13 (Day before merger announcement) : 52,963 ---- usual short volume
4/14 (Day of merger announcement) : 896,926 ---- panic short covering
4/15 (Next day / Friday) : 213,315 ---- profit taking and rest of short covering
4/18 (Monday) : 125,452 ---- profit taking and rest of short covering
4/19 (Tuesday / Yesterday) : 57,598 ---- back to normal short volume / * Share price settled at the bottom !
AND the TOP 5's out of 95 are;
The overall number of shares held by the institutional investors has not been much changed noticeably that they should know something (surprisingly positive) that we are not aware of yet. Please share if anybody on this board knows or heard any good (or bad) news. The patience is of the essence in this type of situation.
1.CAXTON CORP 21,696,894 shares
2.VANGUARD GROUP INC 4,286,483 shares
3.RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC 2,504,200 shares
4.BLACKROCK FUND ADVISORS 2,445,933 shares
5.GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC 1,304,762 shares
I don't usually watch day trading ticks, but I've been doing it with snta all day as if I became a day trader. Almost all the trades are being made by a small block (10,000 shares) that new shorts want to buy at high and old shorts want to sell cheap when the majority traders are holding. Definitely, I smell the coffee is brewing again. Remember? When we were stalled in the silence, not many knew or even thought about a merger. I was thinking of equity distribution, selling a company or announcement of new trials, but never thought of the merger. Let's see what they come up with this time. Good Luck.
Hi min. In my opinion, most likely in Q1 Earning Report, there should be a detailed announcement as to how they are going to handle the reverse split whether to proceed before the merger completion (Spept.31st), OR move the listing to NASDAQ Capital Market starting June 1st to gain another 6 months. Simply put, at this very moment, the whole thing including merger plan itself is in the hands of business people, not in doctors' and researchers' which means they (the business men - institutional investors, Mr. Kovner and Mr. Friedman (CEO elected for the new merged company and the current director of snta) and his wife (the current director of Midregal), will try their best to promote their own interests that happens to be perfectly in-line with the other shareholders like ourselves. As a trader, I do trade. But in this snta case, I am watching (and kind of enjoying it at the same time) because I know it will be the matter of how much profit I will be making. Reverse split before or after merger? I really don't think it matters. Personally, I would prefer pps moves over $1 and then 1:10 split at which pps to be $10 with about 40 million shares outstanding whether or not before/after merger.
I like the way you're saying things. Not because I have snta shares, but for how you conclude your theory. Agreed and well said, Bio.
Certainly seems that way although it looks like there is still some friction created by shorts today. I noticed this by watching the ask and bid sizes and prices throughout the day.
I emailed snta's IR asking what is the asset (total and net) of Madrigal, but no answer (I did not think I will get the answer anyways.) Well, Madrigal can have surprising amount of asset or possibility of not. However, rather than the total (or net asset), what is truly count in biotech/medical research/pharma is their actual cash/cash equivalent position. I'm sure Madrigal has some plus $9 millions committed to be invested. In the worst case, supposing Madrigal has absolutely no cash/cash equivalent, the new company will start with a minimum of $37.5 millions ($28.5 mill of minimum cash requirement from Synta as a merger condition - I think there will be more, and $9 millions of new investment.) Even with this worst case scenario, it is actually not bad to start the new venture with that kind of cash because they will able themselves to the immediate cash by public offerings of new shares after reverse split without impacting the shareholders' value and interest. The new company can truly be a cash rich. This is where I give the high grade for this merger plan because it creates the win-win situation not just for the company but for the shareholders because we don't need to be anxious, angry and worried all the time about discounted dilutive offerings all the time. Let's say they do 1:10 reverse split at $1.00 pps, then the outstanding shares will be about 40 million shares more or less. Hypothetically, now at around $10 pps, issuing 60 more million shares will easily fund them $600 millions. The merger is engineered to provide the necessary funds for many years without scaring off the shareholders and investors until and beyond the phase 3 stages and approval processes on their currently tested drugs. The questions is whether the drugs will be successful for commercialization? Well, it is too far off to think about., but in the mean time, we can invest, day or swing trade, or whatever we do to make some great profit. Best Luck To You All.