Jk, I havepreviosly posted my holdings, but FYI will repeat, GMLP , KNOT, DLNG, AMID, SXCP, and a few spec plays like CNNEF. LNG shipping is in a slightly better shape than LPG shipping, but unless there are contracts in place like DLNG, not a time to invest. From a foreighners point of view , trump is an ignorant loose cannon. Bad for the world. Fed will not do anything that can be seen as a political move.
Bill,always enjoy your imput. Is there any reason you don't want to disclose your investments? As a whole, we here can benefit the most by sharing our investments. Tough times are ahead, no doubt about it. It's time we here open up and help one another. Don't you think? Obviously you think we're in for a down time. What do you think? 5%? 10% down? Please restate your core holdings. Let's get the ball rolling here. We'd all better tighten up our thoughts here and share. I'm holding very few issues. VXX is my biggest with a smattering of LNG shipping and commodity holdings. Bought a small position in VNRBP. Oil is going down imo from here. Do like the LNG shipping as a long term hold. And I do believe we'll see another QE from the fed before the election. It's the last hope they have of derailing Trump.
Jk, I have made my position clear. Core holdings with sustainable dividends, 30% cash, and ride out the market correction I think may be in the initial stage.
Well Mark, it seems that you and I and sometimes the gambler are the 'downers' here. I love the discussion and banter here. I see SFL headed to the 13's again within a month. Who knows, right? NRZ, NYMT, other reits, energy, shipping (LNG), who knows the outcome? I think many here could do us all a better service if they were more forthcoming with their thoughts. So what if you're wrong in a week, a month or a day? Between those who post here I think if we laid our cards out face up more without being so concerned with the chastising we might get we'd all be better off. Guys, we're headed into choppy waters now. I want to hear from you. Everyone of you. Where are you at, and just what do you expect? We're all in this together.
Recent earnings report was outstanding, coking coal only, 1.6 DCF, maintained/confirmed
2016 guidance, improved margins, beat the street on earnings, 20% div/yr, distribution approved, X/D on 5/12. I plan on selling part of my holdings before X/D, but also believe there is merit to long term hold. Thanks William for the heads up.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
What's up the most is DPM. They reported AFTER the bell, and according to Seeking Alfalfa, beat on earnings and missed on revenues. (Trading AH was weird, first up, then down, then even.) I like DPM (yield about 9.0%), a recovering energy MLP. Excellent sponsorship from Spectra and Phillips 66. Second place today goes to GLOP.
DH still doesn't understand (after all these years) the myth of the money on the sidelines. At all times, stocks are owned by someone. When institutions sell, someone has to buy what they are selling. The issue is at what price is the selling done. The institutions could sell (or sell overvalued names) and wait to get back in when the market is much lower (after all the margin calls are settled), which is what they did in 2009. But that doesn't mean that the market has to stay at current high levels. No one is arguing that the market will stay down forever. The argument is that it will fall until it reaches a better value (or when the Fed, like the Japanese central bank, comes in to buy up stocks in order to keep confidence up).
As for inflows into 401k's, DH must not understand demographics and the tidal wave of money that is set to come out of 401ks for the baby boomers. As JK pointed out yesterday, the younger generation is underemployed and has less participation in 401k's and pensions, yet the younger generation has higher debt costs for school and other costs like housing. The older generation is living longer and spending their money on assisted living and medical costs. The younger generation may inherit wealth from their parents or grandparents (if they don't spend it first) and maybe that money finds its way back into the market.
Again, if DH was so confident in the market, then why isn't he 100% invested, and the reason is because he knows it is overvalued and the risk of it declining is high and growing. He says it hit a double bottom in March, and yet he didn't go 100% fully invested then. Why not? Sometimes people like to talk a good game, but when it comes to betting with their own chips, they are more risk averse than how they talk.
I love getting to point out the mistakes DH keeps making in his arguments. First, DH doesn't seem to realize that it is an entirely new game. This isn't the same game that Warren Buffet is used to playing. Warren never had to deal with negative interest rates or HFT's or computer algos until recently. If the only thing that matters is corporate earnings, then why is the market up when earnings have declined for 3 quarters in a row and the p/e is 23 and near all-time highs? Why does the market go up when the central banks issue some statement about "doing what it takes" on the same date that earnings or economic news is negative? DH speaks of the long term but apparently he doesn't remember the 1930's. Sure we came out of that with a little war or two, but there was a decade of stock market underperformance.
DH does acknowledge the problem with the national debt, but he's confident it will be dealt with. The way it is going to be dealt with is the way Japan is dealing with theirs, which is to have the central bank buy up all of the ETFs and stocks to keep the market up and hope that they eventually can generate enough inflation to inflate the debt away. Still hasn't worked, but there are those, like Krugman, who think we just need to do a little more.
The proof is in the pudding. The Fed ended QE (except for the reinvestment of principal) in late late 2014 and shortly after that the US stock market went sideways while corporate earnings went down. Where's the correlation with earnings again?
Finally, if DH was so confident, why was so much of his money in TIPs and cash. He likes to talk big that he fully believed in the stock market recovery, then why didn't he put 100% in the S&P, or even triple positive ETFs.
Did anyone see this article regarding the REIT sector?... "Dividend-Paying REITs to Become Their Own Sector: Managers May Be Forced to Buy". Certainly an interesting article for those who invest for dividends. Won't change the fundamentals on REITS, but could provide some impetus to get their stocks closer to book values.
I guess if you want to watch the FED, or Hillary, or The Donald you can come up entire lists of worries or bullishness depending on your personal ideology. I frankly don't care about any of that nonsense, except maybe for a short term trade. Ditto on geopolitical events. In the end, the only thing the market cares about is corporate earnings and corporate earnings forecasts, which in the long term have always gone higher. That is why betting on business has always been the #1 road to wealth in this country. Don't believe me, then go talk to Warren Buffet.
The only caveat I have to this is regarding our national debt, which apparently is no longer an issue…really? No the U.S. is not going to default in my lifetime, perhaps not even in yours, but eventually some action will need to be taken…by someone made of steel. Tax rates will have to go up and spending will have to go down significantly, and even with this, we will probably need one mother of a strong economy concurrently. Of course no one wants to tackle this, because who the hell wants to be the bearer of bad news. If they do tackle it, that will put pressure on incomes, corporate and personal, and services; and will probably drive earnings and PE ratios down to lows not seen in many decades. This is the big worry. All the rest is just fodder to keep the masses entertained.
I'm a Conservative Republican and Trump bothers the hell out of me because of his unnessary nasty comments. He's won the nomination and still can't refrain from insulting someone's Grandfather. WHY?
Why does he trash talk like an 8th grader on the playground?? Hell, almost all of our candidates spent most their time with insults. I'm afraid I have at least 4 years of listening to a screechy lying #$%$.
Shame on me for going political, but I have to chuckle about former world "leaders" like Vincente Fox of Mexico and the now-discredited Tony Blair of the UK speaking as representatives of the international version of the Stop Trump movement. Now that the GOP establishment has failed in this effort do the Foxes and Blairs of the world really think the average US citizen gives a hoot what they think?
k-bon...I not knocking energy stocks, as there was a time when we could buy almost any of them and make a nice profit...the problem with me is, at this time, that I am not smart enough to pick the right ones (you and william really have me beat on that)...! Your research is very good...please keep it up...! Stagg...!
LOL! I've been hearing about how we are going down for 9 years now. I won't hold my breath, or risk negative real returns, waiting on it.