I agree SSW is a buy but I'm low on cash and don't have anything ready to sell. Now at $14.62. Perhaps it will go lower. Wondering if they are battening down the hatches for tougher times ahead. Yield is solid, IMO, but may not be increasing its dividend for awhile.
Not a single call on SFL alone. Whole market. At this point, it's all about the charts, and my gut feeling. Just started really diving into charts and history of dollar and there are some signs there that suggest the long anticipated 'crash' came and went already. We live in the Matrix these days.
SDLP is solid. 4 major oil companies were upgraded to a buy today. Oil will rise to 50 to 60 a barrel by the end of summer. Opec meeting in June and Memorial Day coming that will eat up the reserves plus fuel prices rising. That will mean only future extractions. This nation must have oil, everything runs on it. Plus u are missing a great dividend. The price is holding and it is hitting a resistence predicated on Oil Crued. Good luck. I am still buying.
I took a profit on ARCC last month (sold too low) and took the opportunity to buy it back today ($14.59). Goes ex-div in a few weeks so may sell before then, but I like it as a hold if the trade doesn't happen. ACAS management had a plan to grow NAV and restore its dividend but couldn't pull it off. ARCC is a strong BDC with good management acquiring a weak one that chronically trades at a significant discount to NAV. Seems to me to be a good point to jump back in.
Bob, not a hit piece on ARCC. Simply pointing out what occurs many times when deals happen. Keep in mind though that when operating within a sector I've seen where even good companies have to run afoul of the rules to keep up with others in the sector who are cheating and lying to gain advantage. There are no 'Polly Anna's' when it comes to big business.
Bob, my comment is not on this deal in particular as I don't follow ARCC. It's just that I have seen this type of m&a action before, particularly leading up to the financial crisis. As I said, it can go on for some time before the sector becomes overvalued.
I bought ARCC in late 2009, just before they announced the were buying out Allied Capital, a troubled BDC and middle market financier. They assimilated them easily and based on ensuing steady, if not spectacular performance, nothing was hidden. That's your negative way of assessing a deal. I have no regrets whatsoever on that deal and I'm sure today's announced deal will produce similar results. ARCC management is smart, very smart.
Mark, absolutely right. Also, buying up another company also allows the buyer to 'hide' underlying financial problems within the company. Shuffling debts and other negatives between entities.
Ed, on the muni retreat, yes many of the muni CEFs have pulled back from their earlier highs from the first week of May. Many of the names that I own have pulled back and sometimes pierced their 50 dma. Some are attempting to retake those levels. A lot of this retreat accelerated when the Fed governors started talking about a June rate hike. If rates are actually raised, I would expect a further decline, but that's a very big if. However, if rates are not raised in June, I think the sector will rally, especially if there is further evidence that the economy continues to slow. Many of these muni CEFs are up 15-20% SINCE December, with their 6% annual divies not included in the price increase. They were well overdue for a correction. There are still a few that are still selling at good discounts to NAV, but many are approaching par.
Typically when we start to see mergers and acquisitions in a sector that usually marks the beginning of the end of the bull market. The reason is understandable. The companies can't keep increasing their returns through the normal process of getting business so they try to "buy" it by acquiring competitors and sometimes using their (sometimes overvalued) stock as currency. We have already seen this in some of the mREIT names. This trend can continue for awhile and will probably put a floor under some of the names in each sector as if they trade too far under book, they will be forced to consider selling out.
Bayman, the book I mentioned has a chapter on the history of the big bank versus small bank problem. Part of the reason why the Fed was created and why the New York Fed in particular seized power from the other Federal reserve banks, was because of this big versus small battle.
William, I agree with your point. They have been rolling up the industry for years. It's what happens in many industries where a large firm, which can use the capital markets to supply lower cost financing, to buy up smaller players who don't have the heft to compete. There was a TV show on Showtime several years ago called six feet under which had that as a minor theme. But it would seem that they have a long way to go before they have completely consolidated the industry amongst a small number of players. There has been plenty of disagreement among those who are long the stock versus the doubters.
Board members...CEFL (yield about 22% and pays monthly) is up almost 6% today and if anybody is interested (???), sarge has posted 'a real good message on high yield stocks' on the AMNB message board (on 11 different picks)...! Stagg...!
your one of the best MB members here
Cheers to you
I do miss some of the news cycles
thanks for what you do for us all