I think SLCA has had more hype to it than HCLP for a few reasons. HCLP is an MLP so less people get into it... it pays out $2.7 per share a year. HCLP is the lowest cost extractor and their management is upfront about who they are contracted with and what those companies break-even oil prices are. Other sand companies are being ambiguous about their numbers. IMO HCLP management has been more transparent than the other sand stocks, so people understand it better and value it more fairly. I think EMES and SLCA are not as transparent and it led to more speculation. HCLP executives took big positions recently as well.
arithmetic...thanks for the history lesson--hadn't heard of "Spindletop" before. Don't know if I want to wait till 2025-2030 for my investment in sand to pay off--oh well--other ventures to pursue !
As with all "Gold Rush" scenarios, this one will take a while to play out. The problem is, people cannot go away and hibernate....they gotta feed themselves three meals a day, and they have to live and sleep somewhere.
As with Spindletop in 1901, success is spectacular but it takes a long time for the market to absorb the excess. At Spindletop in Texas at its height, a barrel of water cost more than a barrel of crude oil. Before the automobiles started turning up (1890s) gasoline was sold as a patent medicine (yuck!).
Chevron did a form of "fracking" in California, in the 1980s, with steam injection near Bakersfield CA. It was not supportable with the low price of crude ($6 bbl in 1986). But by 2013, Chevron was minting money with steam in those fields.
Fracking will have its place...probably in 2025-2030, when it is even more advanced!
Too successful for our own good--too much oil--who would have thunk it ? All that great technology to get oil from shale rock now leading to drilling to dry up???? Sad !!!!! Hope I'm wrong but things do do not look very good !
Yemen is falling apart. They are an oil producer, but small and barely cover domestic needs. They don't add to the world glut. Iran and Saudi, Iraq, are going to continue to pump large amounts for the next few months at least. The accumulated millions barrels per day excess is building. US oil stockpile surplus largest ever! So this pause above $47/ bbl is just a pause.
it's means "it is". Just forget the apostrophe. "shifting its trend from down".
Regardless of the chart pattern, I do not believe the future bodes well for SLCA. I held it in the 40s, and got out with a tiny profit. But with major layoffs, so swift by domestic oil service companies, I think SLCA stock price will go with the flow...down.
FMSA's been around a very very long time and weathered declines many times. Furthermore, they have an established customer base well beyond those in the same sand sector.
As for a trade, HCLP and EMES offers some very good volatility for short term gains. I just feel FMSA albeit it's debt, retains the least risk at least for me. Glad I didn't buy the IPO that's for sure.
The 10-K was filed on Feb. 26 last year so I would assume approx. the same time frame. End of year reports usually require more time to complete thus the extra month.
SLCA does have a better diversified revenue stream, but I think you're correct on your valuation
and sentiment points.
I'm curious why you think FMSA and SLCA are the best of breed over HCLP, EMES, and other non-public sand companies? I disagree and I want to hear your argument.