Since the company is now stabilized , it all depends on how China is tamed. Once that situation comes under control, I will be looking for the pop made by the covering of 11.37M short stocks . In the interim, there will be volatile trading in the range of 10-13. I will hold half of my positions and try and make profits with the remaining half. But, not before it hits at least $12/- GL
Earnings reports are mixed, Apple is a big weight on the market. the S&P 500 is right on a support point. After I hear them talk about things, I'll have a better idea about tomorrow.
How about that Facebook and Amazon!. Wish I would have bought those stocks on Tuesday. Just on TV...another big earthquake in the Pacific.
I'll have to listen to the report, I would have much preferred to see a eps in the black but I'm happy with the EPS. It beat the consensus of (44) by 25 cents. We have to remember that aluminum was still low for much of Q1. I know the devil is in the details...but I'm not crying...yet.
inexoem, it says in their 10k filings that they do have those sorts of agreements. Honestly, despite what BMO may have said, I really think it's clear from the 10k filings that these guys make most of their money from the Aluminum Premium. Premiums are still at 8 cents/lb. Profits will not be coming, and I fully expect the stock to retrace $6, unless the premiums rise....
Cynthiacandice, I remember your earlier prediction - great foresight! Perhaps you would like to make another prediction moving forward from today? Good Luck.
BMO used a lower multiple (6-6.5) than I (so I'm guessing our rudimentary math is in the same ballpark) and also issued a downgrade in Feb when the stock was trading at $6... (Albeit from OutPerform to Market Perform...) Stock is up over 50% since then... I don't think anyone is capable of accurately projecting what will happen over the next 12 months with this stock. Also, I think it's a little early to give CENX a 15 multiple until they actually begin to grow earnings, so, at least back in Feb, BMO was probably the better call... Now, with AL trading up over .75/lb, it would surprise me if some did'nt start to reevaluate. Assuming CENX does not post a loss this quarter and that they maintain their control on costs such that breakeven is still in the $1450 range, the multiple should gradually creep closer to 10. Input costs will be a big factor into this equation as well... I haven't been following ore pricing as well as I have been following finished Aluminum... It would be interesting to see if CENX has a similar agreement with mining companies as they do with power... (Ore as a % of LME) I hope some analyst asks that on the call...
BMO issued a report a month or so ago that said for every one cent increase in aluminum, CENX should increase about one dollar in value. Using their formula, aluminum was around 66 cents at 75.5 right now. The price was around $5.50 when it was issued. Using their formula CENX should be sitting at $14.50 now. Seriously undervalued. It all depends on the report now.