Rex - The Fed can have it both ways - they will just revise the 3.7 down to 1.9 when they release next months numbers. When you control the cookie jar anything can happen.
I do agree that they are in a squeeze at the moment.
Although China continues to add liquidity, I see no real change in fundamentals.
Friday should be interesting.
With the possibility of two big up days coupled with a substantial level of doubt could mean profit taking going into the weekend.....a lot of mixed signals
I still think we are going to experience another bottom starting in the near future...jmo
It would seem to me that the Fed has now caught themselves in a Catch-22 situation.
Todays report of a 3.7 GDP number for the 2nd Quarter runs contrary to any notion that there is no urgency in raising rates by 25 basis points next month.
Furthermore, if the CBO's revised number for 2015 at 2.0 is correct, it would seem to indicate that the only way to be able to average down to that level would mean the 3rd and 4th Quarters will be dismal with many companies missing their estimates.
You can't have it both ways!
If I had a nickel for every time I was wrong I would be rich(er)
We are not running a contest here, but rather simply trying to provide factual information so as to give those here a different perspective, one which might not have been considered before..
Market did well today.....Feds water dripping hints that they might not raise rates next month is what the market was looking for.
Yesterdays CBO's "midday" announcement that they were revising 2015 GDP estimates downward by 30% gave the FED the excuse they were looking for.
China's currency was down again today vs.the dollar.
Another thing to consider, I never make any sentiment on stocks.
Personally, my biggest concern going forward is that I question the validity of any economic/financial comments coming out of China. and if their GDP drops 2-3 points below the 7% they continue to claim it could throw the world into a recession
True i was wrong about China...Was looking at the wrong figure..when i wrote that post..I made a mistake...shoot me.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Yesterday was a no-brainer
I have played the dips for many year and I can tell you that rarely when the market opens up by more than 2% does it finish the day in positive territory.
You always show a strong buy sentiment which indicates to me that you feel that the market has reached a bottom...I hope you are correct, but I have serious doubts that we are anywhere close to a bottom.
You are a man of few words and no facts.
You saying yesterday that China is doing better was a total distortion of reality and you were wrong
Seems the market agreed. The spread Tuesday was 800 points, 600 up and finishing 200 down.
We are just trying to provide useful information about the situation allowing investors to draw their own conclusions
You are always welcome to chime in with a "factual" view point.
I rarely listen to Jim Cramer, however there were a couple points he made that caught my attention.
I do not hold nor have I ever bought into the China market.
Growth is a major concern with China...that is a given, but hundreds of stocks in their markets are being financially propped-up by the government and sell between 40 and 70 time earnings---now compare that to the US market with EPS averaging 15% or so makes China seriously overvalued
IMHO, China's market overall needs a serious haircut to the tune of at least 30-40%
I only mention this because it may become a big part of why nothing they can do with rate adjustments will prevent the ongoing plunge in their own markets.
Also, historically September has always been the poorest month for the markets---and that is just around the corner
CBO said today that revenues are up reducing the debt slightly, but (and here is the bad news) said that it is revising its estimate on US GDP from 2.9 downwards to 2.0, a 30% reduction
As if news out of China was not bad enough.
Is it possible that Gasman may be correct and the government may start printing more money and calling for a QE4?
Thinks have not turned in Asia (China) for the better.
Their market was down over night by another 7.6% and cutting rates by 25 basis points is not enough, as they did this several times before and it has not helped.
The real issue with China is one of growth.
As long as the broader markets believe that their growth is actually slipping to levels far below what they are broadcasting, the markets will follow them downward.
Please keep in mind, "One up day is not a trend----two weeks of strong losses IS a trend"
The reason you are seeing or should see a rally at open is because China cut rates over night and added liquidity
However, futures early morning was over 600 points on the DOW, but now has dropped to the 300 level.
What the day brings is any ones guess!
things have turned in Asia for the better....Dow futures up sizable,,,hopefully we get a bounce
Sentiment: Strong Buy
The Feds created this bubble and now do not know exactly how to resolve it.
Projected growth was never achieved with QE and raising the interest rate now will hurt both Wall Street as well as Main Street.
I heard reports out of China today that estimated the real growth for the year may be in reality between 2-3%---far worse than China has been pumping of +7%.
Tine to lock-in more low rates on property