rude - There are dissenters on the board but the majority still wants to keep the "considerable time' language. They have themselves covered no matter which way the economy goes! Below is what I cut out of the September minutes:
"The Committee again anticipated
that it likely would be appropriate to maintain the current
target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable
time after the asset purchase program ends, especially
if projected inflation continued to run below the
Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided
that longer-term inflation expectations remained well
anchored. The forward guidance also reiterated the
Committee’s expectation that, even after employment
and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic
conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping
the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee
views as normal in the longer run. Two members, however,
dissented because, in their view, the statement language
did not accurately reflect the progress made to
date toward the Committee’s goals of maximum employment
and inflation of 2 percent, and they believed
that ongoing progress will likely warrant an earlier increase
in the federal funds rate than suggested by the
forward guidance in the Committee’s post-meeting statement.'
I guess the issue is what constitutes a "considerable time" My guess is that 6 months is a considerable time!
I am not big into TA. But it looks like HON has bounced off $90 for the 5th time since April.
My understanding: to the traders, that means that HON has very solid support around $90.
I am not saying it's bad to have that exposure. However, since HON does have that exposure, earnings may come in less than expected.
For example, at the next conference call, HON may reduce forward earnings estimates.
Like any stock, HON's price is determined by expectation of future earnings, if those expectations change, then the share price will change.
That said, the market is known to hugely over-react in the short term. Even if HON has to reduce it's forward earnings estimates, the forward PE would probably go from 14 to 15 - which is very low for a companies with HON's solid earnings growth.
Wait a minute. Let's be fair. If revenue from those countries is going to be less than expected, then HON's earnings may be less than expected. In this market, that could be seen as a big deal.
On the other hand:
I have worked in the defense sector myself, for many years. In my experience, defense spending is not like discretionary consumer spending. Defense spending has much less to do with interest rates, inflation, job growth, or other such economic matters.
On the other hand again: HON is not purely a defense sector company.
Yes, because the company has too great of an exposure in Europe, Russia and China whose economies are slowing. This will translate into reduced earnings for the long term, therefore a lower stock price.
Looking at the YTD chart, it seems that HON has bounced off $90 four times since last April. Does it matter that HON is below $90 now?
Wonder why? FWIW, last time I checked: thestreet gives HON an A+, Morningstar gives HON a 5 out of 5. Motley Fool also gives HON a 5 out of 5.
In 2009 Dave Anderson said that the stock would be over $90 in 2014 and some people thought he was crazy. Shortly after it got there he left and it has been a roller coaster ever since. Maybe he was as good at projecting a downturn as he was the climb up, and he got out near the peak to ensure that all of his options would cashed out at the right time. Hopefully they will report a strong Q3 and we can watch this climb back up through the end of 2014, but I am glad that sold some of my shares over the past 3 months. I am just not sure if it is safe to jump back in yet.
All these clowns who take credit for how much they grew earning are about to face the truth. They aren't that bright nor worth the millions they steal from shareholders and employees. Profits are due to low interest rates provided by the Federal Reserve stealing from the bank accounts of the average American.
Europe hurting US stocks. Euro conversion rate now down about 8% from around 1.36 and hurts companies that repatriate overseas earnings into dollars. Cote has in the past used a "worse case" conversion rate of 1.25 in his earnings forecasts and we are now there. Don't think this will be a major impact but along with the slower Europe recovery it could limit any earnings upside. Hopefully, the Euro will get back up in the 1.3 range before the end of the year.
I don't like to see posts that seem to contain mis-information. To say that Honeywell is near it's 52 week low is not really accurate. That is why I responded with a more objective assessment.
Thank you for pointing out that HON is hardly up at all YTD. It is surprising that a company with such stellar earnings, and earnings growth would be flat, while the share prices for far worse companies are through the roof.
I am seeing the present price at 90.60. The 52 week low is 81.04 and the 52 week high is 98.09.
HON is getting pounded, but I am not sure it's that near it's 52 week low. Even now, it's still closer to it's 52 week high.
90.60 - 81.04 = 9.56
98.09 - 90.60 = 7.49
Still holding up a lot better than RTN, or GD; about even with ITA.
Looks like it's getting closer to its 52 week low. Remember: Buy low, sell high...which is just the reverse of what you did when you bought this stock
I just bought to honeywell, so I am underwater, and not too happy about it.
But, to put it in perspective:
The entire market is down hard as all hell. Honeywell is only slightly worse than SPY, and HON is doing better than ITA, and hon is doing way better than other defense sector stocks. BA is down 2.13%. RTN is down 2.39%. LMT is down 2.68%. NOC is down 2.84%,
Honeywell has strong earnings growth, and a low PE.
Also, honeywell is significantly closer to it's 52 week high, than it's 52 week low.
I wish I knew why this is happening, or what is going to happen tomorrow.