if the stock gets cheap enough I will play it via out of the money Jan/14 CALL OPTIONS
kevi said we would get clearer E timeline data in january after management meeting with abbvie
Thanks for that post. I feel exactly the same way. I don't know why Neurocrine even bothered with the update as there really wasn't an update. I basically learned that there will be no news for a good while. I'm not sure how I feel about the additional dose in the UF trial. Like you say, Abbvie has screwed around a bit. Didn't they even through an estrogen blocker or agonist into the mix at some point? I can't recall.
Anyway, I decided to exit for now and will look to enter if we hit that $7 mark you mentioned. I'm not happy with what I heard yesterday...it was confusing to say the least.
typing with left hand have tendinitis in right arm.
the earliest we see E for Endo is october but most likly december.
VMAT is a 2015 event and kevi gave us a bunch of mombo jumbo on current and pending P2b results
IMO their is lonterm value but the timimg of positive P3 E results leaves this stock vunerable to trading down on any significant mkt sell-off.
short term upside is thru may/june trading is around $12 PPS
given our recent highs upwards towards $17, the stock is going to have resistance above $12 PPS
tough slog over the summer even with E p2b for UF reading out like July/august
would not be a buyer above $10 as we could see $7's in a mkt sell-off really want to say $6's but $7 has value written on it.
I have a core position but its all $3/$4/$5 stock so I will hold for the ride. everbody knows I trade the stock outside my core position. I don't hold my traders long buy in multiple lots and get $.50 cents up and i'm out.
the future is cloudy as VMAT is up in the air and just a reminder to those who have been here from the Idiplon days and Pfizer!!!!! Abbvie has srewed around with the P3 trial patient population size and the timelines have slipped and slipped and that makes every investor nervous including myself.
there are several posts on the investor village mmssg board draw your own conclusions on their confusied state of mind. some, seem to hate management but love the stock .........
Just got done reading some of the posts on the Investor Village board about todays conference call.
Lot of negative stuff posted. sounds like both VMAT and E trial timelines are pushed out again.
My $10/$11 price target range is on HOLD.
Need to listen to the CC myself don't have time at this moment so any additional comments welcome
I've been around NBIX for many years as well. The other x-factor here is uterine fibroids. Abbvie is running that study and I don't believe they are under any obligation to release/share data. I believe that trial will complete this December. There is always the x-factor that Abbvie releases data in late 2013/early 2014 if that data is very strong. That would pop us up.
Back in today (8.83). Did pretty well last time, don't want to think about the time before that (hint: Indiplon).
Not expecting a buyout, but hoping for good news on VMAT2 at high dose.
WOW talk about oversold
The bigger question is the rotation out of the small CAP Biotech sector in general over? ? ? ?
Tax Loss selling season starts very soon
the stock has had a 50% haircut from its 52 week high in September.
Sign me up. That would be 3x in 1 yr, give or take. I'm in. :)
Seriously, I do think a buyout is more likely now (not necessarily likely, but more likely). We'll see where we are after December and Kinnect 1, 2 results.
Read your post on IV board.
Given NBIX has no pipeline beyond Elagolix ......... Abbvie buy-out sooner than later.
IMO, after we get 1ST E P3 readout . $25/$30 per share
You think exactly as I do. They haven't had anything to do this year except 2 VMAT2 trials and they screwed both of them up. The even more annoying thing is their hubris in the face of their demonstrated incompetence. No mea culpa and no acknowledgement that their trial design and supervision sucked. They just sit up in their luxury campus and marvel at the fact that they have survived for twenty years without producing a single commercial product. Lyons, though still on the BOD, got canned after the Indiplon fiasco. They should do the same with Gorman. If his lips are moving, untruths and half truths are spilling out.
Throw in the $2 in Cash and NBIX should be trading around $11/$12 PPS
I for one would not mind an Abbvie buy-out at around $17/$18 PPS.
lets just see what types of year End bonus and stock options management gives to themselves for their cowdung 2013 performance. These guys would blank-up a wetdream
per share is in play.
VMAT2 has been discounted out of the PPS ....... Elagolix is worth $10 PPS
Its a good thing that Abbvie has complete control over E's development programs
Looks like we may not get Elagolix P3 trial Investor update untill late 2014/early 2015
according to a post today by go-irish on the Investor village mssg board.
dead money for a longtime if that is the case at hand
Unless of course we get an unexpected positive update from Abbvie regarding Elagolix (in UF) or there is unexpected positive data out of the Kinect trial in Dec. If Abbvie really believes in Elagolix (which is appears they do) then why not just buy NBIX at these levels? NBIX will be much much higher on any positive Elagolix date. We were just at $16.