I have some shares from 1998 that I would consider parting with at $50 :)
Hope I'm above ground long enough to do it!
Glad to see you still on the board.
Thank you - I indeed checked in the site. I am an retail investor on my own knowledge of the available data and the probabilities of drug's success, and I do not overanalyze the market movement. NBIX is not in a hot sector of drug (hepatitis C or cancer), and the management team is mediocre, but Elagolix and VMAT2 inhibitor are very likely to succeed in my opinion. Currently, the market did not give what NBIX deserves (probabilities of the success, and the market size of the candidate drugs) - that's why I invest in. The good things about these candidate drugs are: targets have been clinically validated, and NBIX seems to come up with a better pharmacological profile of drugs - usually meaning the probabilities of success are compelling. In fact, a number of Phase IIb results support this assumption. I would be very surprised Elagolix fails
An injection form of GnRH antagonist has been used in this practice - so theoretically Elagolix can be used although not in clinical testing. In my opinion, better not being used, because Elagolix is a small molecule - never know which effects on babies.
From PropThink. I thought it is a very nice summary to pass on. In addition, I thought that the analyst may underestimate the huge advantage of convenient use, which will likely result in wider adoption by patients than old drugs. The uptake of Elagolix and its peak sale should be revised upwards. Of course, the first thing is to hear the Phase III results by Jan. 2015.
Orally active. Elagolix is given as a once-daily oral tablet, avoiding injection-site reaction seen with depo formulations. Elagolix can be dose-titrated and quickly discontinued if necessary.
Reversible. Because elagolix can be quickly discontinued, ovulation returns typically after the first month of cessation of therapy. Women receiving long-acting formulations of Lupron and Depo Provera can take months to see normal return to ovulation.
Rapid effect. Elagolix does not cause the initial GnRH flare effect seen with agonists (drugs that simulate GnRH which the body then shuts down via feed back loop), which can worsen symptoms near-term and take weeks or even months before they reduce symptoms.
Less side-effects. The mechanism of action of a GnRH antagonist (GnRH suppression seems to have a benign affect on changes in bone mineral density and hot flash as elagolix does not suppress estradiol levels to the effect of Lupron).
If elagolix pricing can peak at $9 to $10 per day by 2025, we arrive at a peak U.S. opportunity for elagolix in endometriosis of $800 million (800k patients x 50% penetration x $9.50 per day x 210 days). 0.8 x 5 =4 b market cap.
took the words out of my mouth
These guys have milked NBIX with their Bonuses and Stock Options for years.
Indiplon run to $65 was when?? so long ago
I was being sarcastic, when I talked about the "novel" compounds and the "gauntlet" came from O'Brien talking new compounds on the last CC. Kevy has been talking about them since the Q4 2011 conference call in February 2012 and hasn't gotten anything out of development since GPR119 went to BI in 2010. I know management too and would be delirious with $50.
preclinical pipeline means very little in terms of valuation. If Abbvie comes shopping their will be very little kevy and the boys will be able to do. Abbvie management team are master at takeovers.
i have been around NBIX as an investment since around 1997/98 ,,,,, long, on the side lines, long, on the side lines, long. My current position I bought in 2010 Have sold 60% of it since than.
I know management and given their track record I'll be very happy with $50 in the bank
"limited pipeline after E and VMAT 2"? Have you forgotten about the two novel compounds for novel indications that are working their way through the "gauntlet"? ;-))))
I like your buyout target of $50, but I think Kevy is bent on keeping VMAT2 in the US as his rice bowl.
Elagolix is an exciting compound that seems to be superior to the current therapy, particularly in an oral tablet. The pharmacological mechanism of this pill is very clear and predictable. There are some confusion to me when Abbvie will report P3 results on Elagolix. And will Abbvie report the full results or just the top line data? If you could share the information, I would greatly appreciate. Go NBIX
The stock does want to go to $20+ PPS Before E P3 Results.
Positive trial results we head towards $30 as Abbvie will buy out NBIX north of $50
No reason for NBIX to be a stand alone biotech given its limited pipeline after E and VMAT2
Sentiment: Strong Buy