We'll have to agree to disagree on this regarding GV. Not sure if $0.70 will fill soon, but pretty certain $1.30 is in the not too distant future. Good luck!
Gaps don't have as much relevance for stocks that trade on relative small volume. Also, if the H&S pattern was to play out, then the stock would go to minus 4.
Better to look at volume breakouts like today.
Mr. Davis made that statement on March 25, 2013. The context was backlog. Backlog is down 40% YTD. That is a huge challenge for future revs. We'll know more when the next Q is posted on how this is impacting them, but it doesn't look good for now. Good luck!
I have followed GV for years, and I don't recall the inaccuracies you speak of. To give you a recent prediction, which the CEO has been pretty spot on with. He said back in the spring that he felt GV can replace the additional revenues from the CREZ project, soon after the project completed, from new business.
With the CREZ project, GV was posting around $22M-$25M/qtr all through 2013. Revenues outside CREZ in late 2012 and through the first 3 quarters of 2013, were around $14M-$15M/qtr on average. Well CREZ was finished in August, and even with having to finish that(it was part of the sept qtr), they were able to secure $23.4M revenues outside CREZ in the Sept qtr. Therefore it appears as soon as CREZ was finished, GV was able to almost immediately replace those revenues with more short term business. In addition to the impressive showing, GV increased their backlog outside CREZ by $5M in the Sept qtr. As if all that wasn't impressive enough, they then said in the 10Q, that contracts recieved since Sept 30, and more expected to come will significantly augment Dec qtr revenues.
To me, from what I'm seeing, it seems GV is doing great and growing strong(despite the two weak qtrs in Mar and June). Just because they haven't gotton another long term contract like CREZ, doesn't mean they can't keep growing revenues and earnings. Right now I expect $.10+ for the Dec qtr, and hopefully we'll hear of the aquisition they spoke of, or maybe even another large contract.
Either way, the stock is rediculously cheap at $2, as that translates to only a 5 PE or less fully taxed going forward.
In addition to fundamental challenges, there are some TA problems as well. Gaps at about $1.70, $1.30, and $0.70. There also appears to be a pennant flag and pretty well formed head and shoulders pattern in the chart. There are also gaps at $3, $4.50 and $5.25. I believe there will be a great buying opp sometime during the next 6 months. Good Luck!
Unless I"m missing something they made $0.17 EPS last Q4.
I've been adding at these levels. I agree with improving growth going forward.
I can't give you a value on South East Power. I do know that the Head of marketing of South East Power is a former Quanta administrator. I know his back ground very well. He has an excellent track record. GV is smart to have him on their team. It seems GV is in the beginning stages of acquiring electrical contractor companies (C&C) as Quanta has done over the many years. You make very good points in your brief outline as to what value GV could bring to Quanta as well as the motivating factors in a possible case for a buy-out. I believe in the absence of attaining the big contracts, GV is a profitable force as Dalton has diagramed out in his posts. Now if you add being awarded huge contracts on top of their growing core business, that's frosting on the cake.
Just an off-hand ballpark guess.
At GV's current size + C&C, I see 120 million per year rev. maximum. More if they keep growing organically or with acquisitions. Fully taxed, and with consideration for future special charges, I think a realistic net income going forward to be 8%, = $9.6 million per year. At this rate, in 2 1/2 years book value would be $2 per share... Add that to whatever % of a return Quanta expects to receive. To get the 8% return, = $120,000,000, or 4.80+ per share. 4.80 + 2.00 = $6.80 + per share. JMHO
Foe that to happen, I would think GV needs to prove that they are capable of winning large contracts on a regular basis,... And therefore capable of reducing Quanta's revenue through competition. On the other hand GV now possesses a medium sized & experienced work force/ equipment fleet with a good customer base, which could give Quanta an instant $80-100 million yearly revenue boost. GV has sold it's core businesses in the past. What do you think would be a realistic price for South East Power/ Power Corporation of America?
"They aren't very informative."
Nor have they been in all the years I've watched, first as a cheerleading investor, now still occasionally
as a jeerleading critic.
sail on, captain cactus...
EPS has dragged this year, but the one time expenses from STEC are finished. I hope they announce in December when C&C is purchased. They aren't very informative.