I'd wait to see if it holds the 9.20 area where it traded in July. I'd be surprised if they maintain the .30 pay out when they announce in Dec.
NLY share price is at a 15 year low, the dividend is great but the p/e on yahoo finance (190) looks like a mistake. The stock is trading below book value but what circumstances would have to take place to get the share price higher?
I don't understand any of how these numbers work with this company. When I read that they reported a $0.68 loss vs expected profit of $0.31 I sold this morning right away. Good luck to you all. I will keep an eye on this one and determine whether to get back in or not.
Well its easy to say core is .30 if you dont count this or that (lt cpr modeling adjustments)
hey anh missed earnings .14 v .15 and part of that is from their legacy hedges which hurt earnings so really in line
and book was pretty much flat
and they got whacked.
dx ivr and earn are the only ones that have bounced since their p/b were too low relative and the numbers were better then their peers and good enough to keep them moving forward.
mfa they beat and book was flat and they rolled over some too even though they were underperforming others? why? because p/b was too relative to others and in general.
nly numbers were very good but part of their prev bounce was this talk about $1bil buyback - how many shares did they buy because i read that their share count increased????
they were down a little after the bell, but i dont expect much since numbers were good versus say two which missed .22 v .23e v .26 divi and they lost 5% book (2.6% net) so maybe a 3 to 5% drop there would make sense wtih what you are seeing in most names.
check the others after their earnings - cracks
"p/b is well over others looking for 2 to 4% drop to get more in line with others"
Why does NLY have to be valued like others when its a better managed company with greater scale?
chuck 960 ...i predict that your name: chuck" 960" will also witness a 10% move in 2016.
"Unfortunately down. The FED continues to send the message that they intend to raise rates slowly for a long period of time. NLY is highly leveraged, so an increase in rates will effect the yield significantly."
Not necessarily, not likely.
1. NLY's profitability is impacted by the interest yield curve, and not just on any one short-term rate. As long as we have a normal yield curve (ie, rates increase with increasing maturities), NLY will do beautifully.
2. Interest rates: the Fed sets only short term interest rates (the Fed Funds rate). Contrary to popular (uninformed) belief, gentle and gradual rate increases are actually very bullish for NLY and the entire equity market as it signifies a strengthening economy (it's sharp and excessive spikes that creates problems). In this scenario, long rates will rise, also, maintaining a normal yield curve which is essential to NLY's profitability.
3. Near zero interest rate policy to date: necessitated by weak domestic/global economies. See # 2 above.
4. The mortgage market & Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac: huge political football. But, to the extent that Fannie and Freddie's roles may shrink over time, this is hugely positive for firms such as NLY.
Fortunately it's only .25 percent rise, and this is more than factored in the price for the past 2 years. That much I'm greatful for. Plus they are diversifying more into commercial to mitigate interest rate risk. They are a very stable and cautious company waiting to pounce with more leverage once the opportunity arises! The best in the sector IMO.
The very best of luck:-)
Unfortunately down. The FED continues to send the message that they intend to raise rates slowly for a long period of time. NLY is highly leveraged, so an increase in rates will effect the yield significantly. Until the FED message changes, NLY may not reverse its downward trend. The irony is that NLY would trade much higher in price even with a much lower yield, if only the FED sentiment was to maintain low rates, as it should be.
Congrats to you for your wise investment in NLY. I agree with your thinking, now maybe you should reinvest and then maybe take two months in Florida instead of one.