NLY may be the California Chrome of the year. Looking like a thoroughbred for past five months, above both the 50-day and 200-day moving average and not even half the companies can make that claim at the present time. I'll be happy with another 17% gain, especially if you throw in the dividend as a bonus. Time for folks to stop crying in their beer and consider that fact that they have a tiger by the tail!
You have expressed much of the same sentiment I have. My real concern is in fact inflation. I see some real signs it is ticking up, and will be watching very closely the indicators. As of today's share price, I'm at B/E. I'm hoping for a couple more dividends before I need to make any decision. If I can get another 5 months, and two dividends, I will be well above my B/E. I'd love to be able to put a stop loss in at $11.10 and hope it never fills. I'm well above the 10K share mark and currently am over-weighted in Mreits. Do you have any other Dividend stocks? I'm always interested in what others have found. I have a large position in LINE too.
With regard to taking advise from this or any MB, you are spot on. I simply like to through an idea out and look to see if I get any thoughtful response back. Sometimes it makes me think and dig into something I've not thought of.
As a fairly substantial holder (at least for my fairly small sized portfolio) and someone who is planning on holding over the next 10 years or so as long as the current management philosophy stays fairly even and transparent, If I were at or near break even I would consider selling strongly.
The interest rate environment is just too unpredictable with the Government messing around from month to month with interest rate comments. We're definitely not in a free market or NLY would be a phenomenal investment. In other words, we're at the whim of the government and so called government economic indicators which makes an interest rate sensitive stock like NLY a bit of a dice roll.
On top of the above is the fact that interest rates really have no where but up to go in the medium term at least (the rates falling continue to confound everyone in the bond market). As long as the rates rise in a predictable and fairly slow manner, no problem...but should inflation do a major tick up in a fairly rapid way, it could get very negative for NLY quickly. We saw how the hedging strategy employed last quarter caused a non-GAAP loss, if that continues we will have a "real" GAAP loss as the hedges come due or expire.
Having said all that, I am fairly optimistic that NLY management is doing everything they can to maximize shareholder value and as I'm way on the other side of break-even than you, and having experienced the mistake of selling based on short-term emotion, I am holding those emotions in and continuing to hold NLY and continuing to collect what at this point is still a great dividend.
Obviously, this is only my humble opinion and you should definitely not take investment advice from the Yahoo Message Board!