I am also a long term holder of NLY. With this stock I are not as interested in price appreciation but the big divvy yield. I like to do a spread sheet that look like this with each purchase:
Date bought| Price per share| # shares| Total cost| Price/share now| Value Now| Dividends | Total Value |
on the same line above at the end: | gain/loss| % Gain/Loss| Net cost/share|
In this way you see your true net cost per share and true yield (not figuring taxes of course)
I am a long term holder of NLY and two events need to be understood about NLY. Keep an eye on book value (short term interest rate has huge affect on bv) the other is the size of their long term paper holdings which NLY has been reducing to slow down the reduction of book value. You need to take a real hard view of what interest rates are doing or will do over the long term NLY has not gone through this kind of interest rate environment before, so their entry into commerical paper is their attempt to diversify, which is a very different business model from their past successes.
Those big insider buys were the reason I doubled down at 9.90 or so (well, that, and I think the shorts here are out of their dad-blamed minds for not more fully covering right after it was clear the insiders were bullish). I sold those blocks (a bit too early) to capture the profit and control my exposure, but at my current $10 cost average, I'm inclined to reinvest going forward - it's still the largest single holding in my Roth, and balances the usual high risk/reward stuff I self-manage. NLY is much better positioned to capitalize on whatever boo-scary, nutty nonsense the market throws it's way than most of the rest of the mREITs, and they clearly know the difference between a bubble and a panic caused by book-talking bozos saying "bubble!" and/or "taper!" over and over again. I'm probably the only one here who actually wishes they could suspend the divvy for a Q or 2 to better pounce on the next episode of stupid-reckless bond selling, but in this case, the main REIT strength is a weakness - they have to pay out what they have to pay out - hence, reinvestment makes more sense than heaping that 3%/Qtr on top of my cash pile...I'll still bid that buy myself via a bigger trade that captures the 3% share count increase, rather than let my broker give me a #$%$ bull-rush price that negates the value of "commission-free! wheee!!!", but obviously that's kind of a risky way to be a cheapskate.
I'm sure you all have discussed this previously, but when I was kicking around for a decent yield investment I ran across NLY(which I owned a few years ago but got scared away from) and saw all the insider buys. They are impressively large buys and were done at a price that is not far from where the stock is today.
So that's obviously a bullish sign and I would guess that the real fear here is when the dividend cuts will stop and rebound to earlier levels. I bought in this morning in hopes that my timing is good and am curious to get a feel for the sentiment here. All I could find in the first page of posts was spam.
Glenn Beck once said Obamacare would mean "the end of prosperity in America forever." But so far, it turns out President Obama's 2010 health law is actually putting money in Americans' wallets.
To be exact, President Obama's 2010 health law was responsible for about three-quarters of a surprising January rise in U.S. consumer spending and American income growth, according to calculations by the Wall Street Journal.
While not exceptional, the gains were significant: a 0.4 percent rise in consumer spending ($45.2 billion) and a 0.3 percent rise in personal incomes (up $43.9 billion), according to new figures released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The growth came in spite of the expiration of unemployment benefits for the long-term unemployed and all that horrible winter weather.
So what exactly did the Obamacare rollout do to cause such a rise? For one, it expanded the Medicaid program, a critical and highly controversial aspect of the law, by adding up to a $19 billion in benefits in January. On top of that, health care enrollees additionally received another near $15 billion in the form of tax credits as a result of the rollout, according to the BEA.
Together the two changes have freed up many Americans to spend money that would have gone towards health care premiums on goods and services instead.
The benefits of the Obamacare rollout thus far also appear to throw cold water on the idea that the law will hamper the economy -- especially when considering last January. Back then, both consumer spending and personal incomes had their worst month in years and fell by several percentage points after the battle in Congress over the so-called "fiscal cliff" ended with payroll taxes shooting up across the board.
Overall, that tax hike resulted in an $700 per worker tax increase on average, according to the Tax Policy Center. Who's killing the economy again?