Time for the shorts to fall on their 3 million + swords Even though the politics in Greece were the absolute worst over the past 3 weeks, the price of SB is up over 30% in the same time frame. Shorts had their way from $11 down to $3 but it seems their gig is over. Earnings are out in10 days shorty. Can you just imagine SB's optimism and forward guidance. How about the imminent upgrades as the analysts begin to fathom the implications of the skyrocketing BDI. Better take your profits now; but then again some people have to be taught by pain.
Average volume (20SMA) increasing since early June with BDI almost doubling and the high short interest is like chumming the waters for those blood seeking "Momentum Players". They are sniffing around already and there is going to be a sea of short blood if the BDI continues to skyrocket.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
This could get really interesting over the next couple of months. I like my long position.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Now granted SB won't see an immediate doubling of revenue; but I'd sure be worried about earnings next quarter if I was short. And Greece worries are being alleviated more every week. It certainly defies all logic that anyone would remain short under these conditions. As Everett said whilst enjoying a fine picnic with Pete, Delmar, and the Bible salesman - - "I don't get it Big Dan"
The pressure on those dang shorts has been relentless all day. Bid size is now 390 inside with only 13 inside for the Ask. The door out is narrow and there are still millions of shares short. The BDI is literally smoking upward, and I'd be exiting if I was short.
Greek lawmakers pass key bailout agreement and the BDI has almost doubled in the past 2 months - - - the buyers should soon begin overpowering the shorts in a most delightful way!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I wouldn't want to be short this sock at this price with the Baltic Dry Index continuing to climb and with a Greece debt deal now the most probable outcome.
I agree that there is a higher upside for the common...but there is also a lower low side and also a bigger risk. To me the preferred are a better bet overall because they will be paid unless SB goes completely belly up. And there is still plenty of upside. I'm buying preferred now for between $17 & $18 and (assuming the company survives) will get $25 back for them while collecting about 11 % per year in between.
Why joining the Russell Microcap is the biggest news to drop for IDI since the assembly of a new board of directors
well ... here's the thing about the Prefs that is curious to me ....
- SB just declared a div for the common. even $0.01 is enough to require divs for the Prefs. So ... by regulation it immediately becomes defacto that divs will be paid on Prefs. And ... unlike common, Pref-divs are set. So ... typically this would assure investors and - the yield is quite attractive. Prefs should rise to the occasiom.
sure - SB common 'might' eventually have more upside. that is fine if one is more attracted to growth performance and .... accepts the increased risk. Prefs are more targeted to income, less risk placements. and ... 11%+ yield is highly outstanding if it lasts. there is a lot that can be done with constant cash flows.
I really do not think the story is so much about Greece as it is the BDI, shipping rates and ship turnover / inventory. Most 'Greek' shippers are not domiciled in Greece.
to each his own.
just IMO of course.
Greece will ultimately accept a deal, won't they? It looks like Mr. Market thinks so. Not to mention the Baltic Dry Index is rocketing off a multi-month floor.