good long term strategy. That would be a 3 bagger from here. i wish i had the option to stay long, but i am a short timer. i am sure you will see 10.
i thought it is important to clarify my above statement that says:
"i sell post data announcement regardless of the price." Nearly in all such events in the past, eventhough i sold right after the event and had some gains, the pps end up going higher (at times substaintially) after i sold. Trying to rush to the exit door and sell immediately after a positive binary event is highly anticipated by market makers who push the pps low to take shares away and then take it back up after the dust settles. So why do i do this? I do it because i like the freedom of having funds available for other opportunities and thus don't want to get into a trap situation in which a secondary or other events lock me up for months.
I am short term investor and seek low risk binary events in the near term (weeks to a couple of month). My exit strategy is simple; i sell post data announcement regardless of the price.
Mean target is $4.63 and that is a good benchmark. Positive data brings in upgrades to 8-10 range, and thus the pps will likely pass $4.63 and probably land in 5.5 to 7 range.
i read an estimate of 65k per yr per patient in the U.S, which puts it at about $200 mil for 3k patients. Company says the count is much higher than 3k, and that's where the 500 mil comes in (i think)
i have similar sales for BMRN, but not sure what the target population in EU and their cost. I read there is 3k in the use. And yes, potential BO is certainly there.
Question: When is CPP-115 data due? Is that late 2014? CPP-115 sure sounds huge.
I agree i posted similar conclusion a while ago in a different way.. you take potential sales conservative starting 2016.. 100M you multiply by 5 and divide by 70mil shares… (marketing is very minimal since patients are very well identified) value of CPRX should be at 7.1 without counting CPP 115…
Just curious on the CPRX Firdapse sales potential. BMRN has had sales of $6mil, $10mil, and $16 mil+/- over the last three years. While Catalyst expects higher pricing and more availability here in the US, I think the $500 mil sales for this particular drug might be a bit of stretch. I guess if you start to factor in possible alternative indications you might get closer... but... You need a few years to close to that.
But I see BMRN stepping in prior to any CPP-115 data being released. If CPP-115 continues to show effectiveness in further trials, the stock price may explode and make Catalyst and very expensive acquisition.
I think the results will put it in the $5-$7 range, and then it's a hodge-podge of events. NDA Submittal, Approval, buy-out, ... Or.. for sake of argument .. Jacobus back-door.
My two pennies... (I have a few to spare after last week) ;)
For me, personally, I'm in this for the long haul. I believe the true value is in CP-115 or a buyout prior to that data. While I'm sure there are others who have bought and sold to accumulate, I'm holding my position to limit tax liability and waiting for the big score.
With that being said, I don't feel that $5 is terrible number to pocket gains. But I think if you see the positive results, the NDA isn't far behind, and the approval of that within the next year, and the potential buyout within that same year.
Quite simply, too many near term catalysts to push this stock price to new levels. Very difficult to see where it goes.... Other than up.
I just compared (in a rather simple way) CPRX and FOLD. These operate in the same fields, mostly orphans, both have roughly 70 mil shares, and their pps are coming out of the sewer lately
FOLD recently ran from $2 to +$7
CPRX recently ran from $2 to +$3
FOLD j- positive PH3, stock ran from $4 to +$7
FOLD potential top line sales valued at $200 mil, current market cap at $570.
OCRX potential $200-$500 for Firdapse, CPRX market cap = $215 mil
A market cap of $500-$600 is about 1 to 2x, so reasonable (just for Firdapse) and comparable to FOLD. Assuming positive data which is highly expected, an average post ph3 is about $8.2. So we got a 2.5 for 1 sale going on now. At a minimum, CPRX should double from here with positive data.
I gave zero value to CPP-115. You add that and this stock is currently on sale at 3 to 4 for 1. All comments of simple analysis are welcome
At June 30, 2014, Catalyst had cash and cash equivalents, certificates of deposit and short-term investments of $45.0 million and no debt. Catalyst believes that its existing cash and investments will be sufficient to meet its currently anticipated working capital requirements through the end of 2015. So no secondary till later in 2015.
Upcoming Investor Conferences
Catalyst's CEO, Patrick J. McEnany and COO/CSO, Dr. Steven Miller, will present at the following upcoming investor conferences:
•Rodman and Renshaw 16th Annual Global Investment Conference, September 8-10, 2014, at the New York Palace Hotel in New York City.
• 13th Annual BIO Investor Forum, October 7-8, 2014, at the Palace Hotel in San Francisco.