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Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH) Message Board

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  • Consolidation over the past two days looking for direction. Good time to start doing upgrades and PRs.

    Over the Thursday through Tuesday offering period, 4,840,000 shares transacted. I would guess 2,500,000 shorts covered. We will see on the next short squeeze list. some of the upside resistance is due to share selling by covering shorts who bought at $10.50 taking gains to cover losses. I think we will hit Dougherty's forecast of $15 by mid-September.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Harry has posted Charts of the Day video on BDSI at TheTechTrader site noting: Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH) is one of the stocks we looked at here on Monday, and it did follow through a little on Tuesday, up 24 cents, or 1.8%, on 721,100 shares traded. It’s not the best follow-through, nor the best volume, but, nevertheless, it moved up through the mid-channel line. At this point, it may very well reach the 17-18 range, if it gets any kind of volume and accelerates.

  • Dempsey has been on the board of directors as an independent since 2010, and originally invested in the company as a Venture Capitalist. Looks like he sold his shares last week around $10.08 as a part of the offering. More info should be out in the morning. Once all this offering is complete, we may see a slight surge upward to $15. This move is getting a lot of visibility.

    Here is the notice:

    NEAL DEMPSEY, of Enphase Energy, Sells $3,008,070 Worth of $ENPH – #Form4 #InsiderTrading
    On 08/19/14, NEAL DEMPSEY, reported a net SELL trade of ENPH with a net transaction amount of $3,008,070. Net non-zero shares traded: 300000.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Harry has posted Charts of the Day video on ENPH at TheTechTrader site noting: Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH) had a nice pop on Monday, up 55 cents, or 4.35%, on 1.2 million shares. It’s surging across the top of the channel, at least the mid-range. It may start to accelerate towards 17-17 1/2, and then maybe 21. There’s good volume, good action on this stock.

  • Reply to

    This appears to be organized short covering

    by winonegipper Aug 15, 2014 12:46 PM

    I agree with you Telecom, its a consideration in this move up. Ganging 18 panels together on a single, new smart inverter product would double sales, at least here in the US. But... its an an extremely competitive, low cost global market with a thousand other global inverter competitors... much more price sensitive. Margin maintenance is my concern, and I think its a long way off from implementation.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    This appears to be organized short covering

    by winonegipper Aug 15, 2014 12:46 PM

    I think this is all about Nahi's comments about Enphase's development of a utility class product. Until now they have been relegated to the residential market. A whole new world. This is not a technical rally or short covering. This rally is purely about the future of Enphase.

    For that reason, I agree with your optimism. But my price target is north of 20.

  • Reply to

    This appears to be organized short covering

    by winonegipper Aug 15, 2014 12:46 PM

    Hi Fortifacation... My price target is $17 to $23 by the end of Q1 2015. (I will probably move back into bonds after that depending on interest rates and the impact of QE withdrawal in October.) Obviously this depends on a lot happening, especially operating margins remaining at 33%, and the marketplace continuing to grow at 40%.

    The Marketwatch release on the 14th stated they anticipated the order book for the offering would be filled by sometime around the 19th. If correct, last Thursday and Friday we probably did 1 million shares of covering short positions, and we will do another 1 million each day today and tomorrow.

    Looks like we are off to the races again this morning at $13.02 only 15 minutes into the trading session.

    Good luck...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    This appears to be organized short covering

    by winonegipper Aug 15, 2014 12:46 PM

    Interesting take. One I never considered. You have a extensive financial background?
    How much of Fridays movement was related to this secondary and what is your exit price/time horizon?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Here's my take... This is a private placement sale to a list of select buyers sponsored by Third Point's Loeb (and others) that had to be registered with the SEC because of its size. Third Point owns 7.5 million shares nearly half of which were out on loan to shorts. With the latest earnings and forecast, it's crystal clear shorts were in big trouble owing big money to Third Point if the SP ran up even further, so he tendered the "out" at $10.50 in a private sale to prevent potential short financial BK's. (He also made enough off of the loan fees already.) In effect, he's calling in his loans. ENPH set the price of the private placement last week to avoid negotiation. Technically it has no effect on share price, and the current market price is realistic. Nahi has a close working relationship with all these VC firms, and he's smart to continue his financing partners investment interests.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Share sale

    by getemlow Aug 13, 2014 7:05 PM

    i dont understand no dilution. is it shares that are part of the eps? this is way over my head. just bought the stock since installers were so impressed with the ease of installing compared to other brands on the market. hope someone would respond. thank you.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Insiders still own majority of shares. Float was very small. Offering allows more institutions to buy now with price trading above $10. Imo.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Share sale

    by getemlow Aug 13, 2014 7:05 PM

    Its just a bit frustrating they didn't wait a few weeks longer, shares were about to break out to a new leg up. They should have waited until at least the $15 mark, but that is just my opinion. It may not actually effect the share price much though, we will see.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Share sale

    by getemlow Aug 13, 2014 7:05 PM

    If I read the prospectus correctly looks like up to 5m shares (25% of Rockpoint, Thirdpoint etc holdings) will be offered - basically purchased by Needham and Northland at prearranged price (we find that detail out tomorrow a.m.) and resold for commission with ability to manipulate price up/down to maintain stability. I would imagine they already have some of their better investors lined up for this estate sale. Short term we may take a hit but sounds like the early investors want to cash in some of their chips (maybe for other startups) but still retain some ownership/control. Under the circumstances I guess this is not a bad way to handle it. Any others have opinion on this?

  • Reply to

    Share sale

    by getemlow Aug 13, 2014 7:05 PM

    You're correct in that no dilution. However, if what you consider "strong hands" are bailing out, there will be more floating shares subject to volatility. Might see a price depression for a short term depending on how this is conducted.

  • So this announcement explains why the share price hasn't skyrocketed since earnings were announced. Obviously there are people in the know on this one. Does anyone know how many shares are being cashed out by these early investors? Also, I suspect no dilution right? Just a load of existing shares that has to be absorbed at a manufactured discount to where the stock really should be trading.

  • Reply to

    7.31 Short Interest Down 5%

    by magoothemagnificent1 Aug 12, 2014 8:37 PM

    Talk about a slow slog to $12.50, two step forward, one back, buts its going there, before the next big leg up. The MM's know this one is severely undervalued, and doing there best too mitigate there short loses as they continue to cover.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The net change was only 200K shares on the run to $12 prior to earnings. Nice to see some covering but it looks like the bulk of the shorts were still on board going into earnings. And I would hazard a guess that they shorted more after earnings which would explain why we did not break out to new highs on what was a blow out quarter and equally good guidance. They are a tenacious bunch. But clock is ticking for them IMHO. I expect they will beat it down going in to Options expiration Friday... could be a great buying opportunity if they do. I think we will see a squeeze very soon on this GLTA ....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Hold your shares -- this ones going much higher, but the MM's looking to steal your shares here.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

ENPH
13.98+0.4800(+3.56%)2:48 PMEDT

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