Volume heavy day (relative to last week) – interesting to see someone buy 5000 shares at $10 in after-hours after stock closed at $9.87…
Wish I could read the tea leaves better, but it does seem like something is brewing. If I had to guess, I’d say results sometime in the next 2 weeks.
Thanks for that info - didn't realize that.
Still extremely puzzled by the lack of volume. In my opinion, the release would come out at the start of the week (i.e. Monday). I would have thought more people would want to buy in and play on a Friday. Maybe all the players are already in, and the stock is still just flying under the radar.
That's definitely possible. For ASCO late breaker, it's just about primary endpoint if I read the rules correctly, and they would have had a lot of work on OS done already given they just did an interim efficacy look that was reported last November -- probably 75% to 80% of the event count on OS looked at in that interim.
It might take them longer to do all the secondary and subset analysis, but the top-line OS analysis should be done already, I would think.
Fair point, it's also possible they're taking their time and just doing their due diligence on the dataset (Scott mentioned at a recent conference that the last thing they wanted was to release top-line numbers that turned out to be wrong because they didn't spend enough time analyzing the data).
In the case they didn't submit for the ASCO late breaking abstract, they'll likely present at ESMO, which has a submission date of May 7,2014.
I think people were expecting to hear something in conjunction with the ASCO late breaking abstract deadline (April 1 I believe). If so, that's a mistake. I think something is more likely after OGXI hears whether the abstract has been accepted ("mid-April").
It's very possible, of course, that they're not submitting an abstract to ASCO. In which case, we could be waiting a day, or months.
Just looking at the recent slide to ~$10...not sure it's indication of a leak (still low volume). My guess is 1) outflows in the biotech industry in general & 2) investors getting impatient for Phase III results (which seems silly given that guidance has been mid-2014 for a while now)
If you don't mind the volatility and lack of liquidity, the long-term risk-reward tradeoff seems compelling (to me, anyway.) I say long-term because I feel more confident about 427 than 011. I don't have a good feeling about SYNERGY, but I'm not going to try to time the market, or the SYNERGY results since this is a long term investment rather than a trade for me.
Just to clarify, OGXI licensed ISIS' second-generation antisense technology for custirsen but that was after OGXI's co-founder Dr. Martin Gleave decided that clusterin would be a good target for a cancer drug. Or maybe that just makes things muddier, as far as the F-R rule is concerned.
Great point - hopefully he's wrong here too...
I'm a bit surprised there's so little volume - with the price as low as it is, seems like a reasonable risk / reward profile given the upside.
AF isn't infallible. His most recent bad call was on MNKD on April 1 (FDA approved MNKD's diabetes drug despite AF's prediction to the contrary.)
Personally, I've always had an issue with the attention/exposure the guy gets. Nothing in his background (bachelor's degree in poli sci) suggests that he would be extremely knowledgeable in biotech, which is just such a complex field. He certainly knows much more than I do, but I do take a lot of what he says with a grain of salt.
Despite my reservations about SYNERGY, I'm long OGXI (price is too low to sell, anyway). However, I believe AF already stated that he believes his Rule applies to OGXI's market cap in this case (I think I posted the reference in a previous thread.) I'm not disputing your interpretation of the Rule, but your view is not shared by AF. That said, AF recently stated that he intends to amend the Rule shortly. He didn't say how or which biotechs might be affected (he just wrote "stay tuned.") This might be why!
If you're a biotech bear, you have the Feuerstein-Ratain rule on your side, which has been very effective.
Or do you? AF says the original developer is the one to look to for the market cap test -- AF thought that was OGXI for custirsen, but it's not -- the original developer is ISIS, as we all know.
My theory is this:
- IF they submitted a late-breaking abstract, they will know if it's accepted by "mid-April" -- call it April 15.
- If the abstract was accepted, its title will be in a list released on Monday, April 21st.
- I doubt they would want that title to be released without guiding on the top-line content, because once the title is released, it's clear that OGXI mgmt has the results and there is a risk of leaks
- So, I would expect a press release sometime between when they find out if the abstract is accepted, and Monday April 21st
Just my two cents
12-31-2014: 483,088 (shares short)
There hasn't been much put buying and the spreads are unfavorable. so the uptick in shortselling could be hedging by longs (in lieu of buying puts) rather than outright bearish bets (JMO). Would explain the recent downward price pressure, though.
We don't know that yet. They may have submitted one. They won't if it's accepted until "mid-April". Titles are released April 21.