And now we know the end game: appraisal rights, apparently. Fortunately, it doesn't appear there is an appraisal rights carve out in the MA.
CT ORDER, then a bit later a spike to 13.71, then the much awaited put deflation. Anyone else watching this horror show? Somebody lost money on all that nonsense; hopefully it was the bots and not me. Is the deal done or not? And what's with dropping a CT ORDER, and not a K on the vote? Whatever.
PPS coming in, but puts still elevated. Keep your head and arms inside the car at all times, and hold onto the rail tightly. Good luck everyone.
HF in PA reported an 8% stake a/h yesterday. Clearly they were buying and pushing it up. Without any noise from them, though, not really sure what their end game is. GLTA
Recent move looks crazy to us given the following:
-ISS and Glass Lewis recommendation to vote for the $13.50 deal. Most institutions have a policy of voting w/ these recommendations.
-no other competing offers emerged during go-shop period
-Murdock’s assumed cost of debt for the LBO has increased dramatically since the initial offer was made.
-According to the PREM14A filing, Murdock said $13.25 was his final offer and almost walked away from the deal at that point.
At $13.96, your upside is MAYBE $.04 and your downside is either -$.46 or -$3 if the deal falls apart. Seems like a horrible risk/reward going into the shareholder vote next week.
Dole Food Inc. (DOLE) Chief Executive Officer David Murdock was sued by an Oklahoma police pension fund over his buyout that values the fresh fruit and vegetable producer and marketer at about $1.21 billion.
Underground Alerts Society (google em) just came out with a detailed report on DOLE today - I recommend any fellow shareholders here sign up immediately and wait for the next update, last time they alerted a stock as a buy it went up 1350%, and last two times they put out sell ratings the stocks dove over 75% - don't be the last to know and get screwed, I learned my lesson on their DOLE sell alert, and GOOG buy alert sub $300
Haven't heard any rumblings about competing offers....$13.50 still the best bid.
Interest rates have increased 57% since Murdock was doing his due dilligence (10yr from 1.75% to 2.75%). This significantly lowers his IRR, plus add in the +$1.50 increased offer and his expected return has to look much worse than he originally thought. Seems highly unlikely he would be willing to increase his offer.
I can't see another player stepping in given the debt load, business volatility, and Murdock's ownership stake.
Looks like arb guys are just pricing this thing off 50% probability of $14 offer and 50% probability of $13.50. I see the probabilty of $14 at less than 10% (would equal an expected value of $13.55).
Here’s the excerpt that people are getting carried away with. This just says Lazard contacted 4 groups as part of the "go shop" and at least one of them was given access to a website. We don't even know if the PE shop clicked on the link!
My advice is to read the prior 5 pages and see how close Murdock came to pulling the plug on the offer. He really didn’t want to offer $13.50 ($13.25 was his “final offer”) and he sure as hell isn’t going to increase it further. If he pulls the plug this stock is back at $10. Seems like a horrible risk/reward at $13.70.
"Beginning on the morning of August 12, 2013, representatives of Lazard began contacting prospective bidders pursuant to the “go-shop”
provisions under the merger agreement, including Party A, Party B, Party C and Party D. On August 16, 2013, the Special Committee held a
telephonic meeting with representatives of Sullivan & Cromwell, Richards Layton and Lazard to receive an update on the status of Lazard’s
conversations with prospective bidders. Also on August 16, 2013, interested parties that had executed confidentiality agreements were granted
access to an online datasite to commence their diligence review."