this baby is going BK. i have never seen balance sheet melt down like this. look at capitalized software. up 60% in 3 months. look at $95 million credit line draw. The sell side sluts are complete idiots. Trading this thing up on these numbers is idiotic. The cash burn in just three months is obscene. Buy all the puts you can. Einhorn nailed this.
I worked there for a few years as a developer/architect. Not saying what you should do, but I did not hold on to a single share after my departure. ATHN's principals will make money off the stock market, and the big ball of duct tape will just get messier every year, IMHO.
...this is ridiculous. Did anybody actually look at the numbers? It's all smoke and mirrors. Decreased revenues, and declining transitions to other products that Athena previously had indicated would provide "organic growth". This is just madness. People are going to get hurt.
there is a $21.0 m Other Income shown in the income statement. I think I recall ATHN had an equity interest in a company that went public which maybe they sold some of the stock. It will be interesting to know whether this was already factored into analyst models.
this is a story stock and story stocks make the most difficult shorts. it makes no sense to try and rationalize based on earnings quality b/c even if earnings quality was pristine, the stock would still be outrageously valued. The whole Street rational is that ATHN is a SaaS company and that therefore traditional metrics like P/E are not relevant, only sales multiples.
I think the only way ATHN works as a short is if it becomes 100% clear to even the dumbest person that they will not penetrate the hospital market in a meaningful way. They have been able to score big deals in the physician market (Ascension) and while I have my doubts about the true profitability of these big deals, it just doesn't matter because its the announcements that drive the valuation. One can not underestimate the way that the CEO has managed the Street. He has done an absolutely amazing job and while to the cynical (me) he sounds like a circus barker, those who matter (the big institutions) apparently love the guy and they are believers. And believe me, big institutions are much dumber than actual industry people-they rely almost 100% on what management tells them which is where the CEO really shines. If the short case ever begins to be apparent there is so much air under the story, ATHN will be a safe short at $80 than it is at $130
from reading street research, they basically ignore gaap and only focus on non gaap, which excludes the one-time gain as well as amortization and stock-based compensation. basically athn gets a pass to make up its earnings every quarter. pretty good deal. it really is interesting that the stock trades at over 100X pro forma, but the pro forma excludes some major recurring expenses like stock based compensation. the analysts justify the valuation by saying it's cheap at only 5X sales, but what is really hard to understand for me is numbers are numbers. The revenue growth is 21% and slowing and the earnings quality, including capitalized software, is less than great so I am not sure why someone should be willing to value this company so much higher than another company with identical numbers just because ATHN is supposedly a SaaS company. The CEO is very clever and has done a great job convincing the analysts that his company is different from every other company
If you look at detailed income statement for recently reported Q2/15 quarter: operating loss of about 2.2 MM was offset by "other income" of about 21.0 MM. So ATHN is still not profitable. The 21.00 MM one-time, non-operating gain (from sell of an equity holding) just disguises this fact. Interesting that the analysts on conference call (at least the edited version of same that I read) did not even mention this one-time, non-operating gain that was was used by company to turn an operating loss into positive reported EPS....
Yea, declining head and shoulders at that. Don't think that right shoulder can get high enough to not be a declining head and shoulders.
Except that Slick J. Bush always has tricks up his sleeve... and it's been awfully quiet.
Headed below 100 this year, but between now and then?? Not so sure...
I'm hearing that Athena is experiencing global outages as it forces users to adopt IE 11 by June 1st? Frequent freezes and crashes. Also possible security risks for IE 11 users. Can anyone confirm? Does this have anything to do with Delinsky's departure?
Thanks. I would love to read his analysis, I just read Greenlight Capital's recent analysis and I am surprised to see an upgrade at this price level. GLTA!
Maybe Oppenheimer coverage... but 2-3pt move is not much for this stock, historically. 5+ would be interesting. I've met the Oppenheimer guy at HIMSS one time -- talked with him for 30+ minutes on the space. Smart guy and savvy on tech side. I'm now long after being short for a few months. See what happens over the next few... Not sure I buy the whole vision from Bush -- it's bigger than him.
Ah... that.s what it was. Thanks. Interesting how it says that Oppenheimber INITIATED coverage .. when they covered it in 2014 and seemingly downgraded from perform to underperform 15 months ago.
Sentiment: Strong Sell