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Oppenheimer Holdings Inc. Message Board

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  • Reply to

    Terrible stock analysis

    by kingspoint29 Dec 9, 2014 7:26 PM

    I don't have an opinion on their stock recommendations however I believe their global macro calls have been spot on...the energy analyst spoke of $75 oil, long before GS or MS...he also correctly pointed out that if it drops below $70 it will quickly drop lower...

  • why is this firm still in business? the analysts are wrong 100% of the time. fking joke....

  • Economic health is very much a story of perception. So if it is through our perceptions that we perceive our economy, wouldn’t it be fair to assume that our perceptions would change if our economy does? And if we can agree that the economy has now changed for the better, why are we still so fixated in our pessimistic views? The question of how plausible it is to change these “wonderland” views must be asked. Things most certainly seem as the best possible outcome, it seems that we clearly were rewarded by being given what we wanted the most, a superb metamorphosis landscape of safety and a stable economy. But ultimately our trust of success fades, ironically, our current state is perceived as anything but the best possible outcome. To me, this is a function of the lack of trust factor.

    This mistrust in our policies as a nation, often perceived as unethical or against our own public interest. The reasoning behind this is something I have often pondered on. It would appear that every time our nation is being accused of wrong doing, something our gov’t cannot justify, the more negative opinion must overpower our leaders’ explanation. Our leaders are blamed for offering muted and controlled experiences they offer limited or skewed facts. Has it ever crossed their mind that it is plausible our ability to understand is limited to the tools of our understanding? And that at this point, understanding, is far trickier than what the word implies? And to a large extent the side-effects of such understanding can be more harmful to us because to reveal to the world whether our actions keep the citizens of this nation safe is to uncover to our enemies how we achieve it?

    The markets are currently in the eye of the storm. We could potentially remain there long enough to see blue skies ahead but I believe this to be short lived, we will eventually be torn apart and will drown in the political storm…

  • The Alice in Wonderland story relies on metaphorically explaining life as a landscape of illusion. This means that both truth and falsehood are interchangeable. What seems real might in fact be false if the lie becomes the truth, or the truth becomes the lie. The “Wonderland” report released today contemplates just that, what is real and what is not through the very unpredictability (as they perceive it) of the economic landscape. What this large financial institution is really relying on is to overturn the reader’s sentiment in questioning the legitimacy of the real in favor of the false. No matter how truthful they are in conveying it to others, so as their truth can convince and overpower someone else’s, the reality still remains that the price action of the stock market in the past few weeks has proven them wrong. The larger a financial institution is or the more subscribers the newsletter has, the more likely it is their market timed based analysis will fail (the GPS analogy).

    The mid-sized financial institutions are in a clear advantage here.

    The more “followers” you have the more likely it is for your recommendations to get “crowded.” This reality might not fit, neatly, in their illusion of truth or their version of “Wonderland” but the more they publicize their attempts to justify their failure in “Wonderland Markets” the more exposed to total failure they get.

  • So how do the examples of the HOV and GPS traffic patterns used in my previous post relate to stocks/market timing we experienced in the past few weeks?

    My main focus here is not to stress the consequences of the HOV now having equal traffic to other lanes because of the influx of drivers reverting to it but my focus is on the fact that human behavior can be influenced and steered in certain directions that can be predicted, or at times even instigated…

    And in a truly Kafkaesque style, the Efficient Market Theorists who speak against market timing are actually assisting predictions that are market timed based, i.e. by virtue of discouraging people to follow the market timing strategies produced, they prevent them from becoming over-crowded....

    ...and hence by remaining 1.0 HOV lanes they do in fact yield the results market-timing predictions forecast.

    To bring the point home in a strong and clear way, when the repetitive perma-bear herd pattern metamorphosizes in a contrarian play is when I start getting worried about stock market price levels...

OPY
23.20-0.30(-1.28%)Dec 24 2:48 PMEST

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