The Existence Of Superb, was a layered work that touched upon so many issues and used a number of devices to convey them. the idea of Playing with magical or mystical Elements such as secondary and tertiary meanings within each writing was a way to critique an Industry where the roles and norms are so confining it dooms and Destines its Members To comply with them or suffer because of them. so ends the brief yet Wondrous Life of superb.
Are you referring to leverage or gearing? I am not sure how you interpret the facts but regardless of your conclusion here, the fact still remains that mega financial institutions like MS & GS are currently in a disadvantage compared to mid-sized financial institutions like this one.
Case in point: as I was reading Adam Parker’s note today basically claiming that their clients’ would be better off doing the opposite of what they recommended, I couldn’t help but think how right I was more than a year ago on this board. From my post “A Self-Defeating Strategy”: The problem with market timing however, lies in this: take for example these new apps that allow us to choose the fastest route to our destination through the live traffic feed. As more and more people start using these devices that predict the fastest route, eventually half way to your destination you’ll realize that the prediction was wrong and it would have actually been wiser to take the opposite of the suggested route.” And followed later with this: “The larger a financial institution is or the more subscribers the newsletter has, the more likely it is their market timed based analysis will fail (the GPS analogy).
The mid-sized financial institutions are in a clear advantage here.
The more “followers” you have the more likely it is for your recommendations to get “crowded.” This reality might not fit, neatly, in their illusion of truth or their version of “Wonderland” but the more they publicize their attempts to justify their failure in “Wonderland Markets” the more exposed to total failure they get.”
With that being said and while I almost always stress the importance of not fixating on our own past views because they can in fact mislead you to false and wrong conclusions today. The question of how plausible it is that mid-sized firms are outsmarting the large ones has now found its answer.
Ahhh...it might appear as if a drunk person writes these posts but if you read it more closely you'll find patterns forming within each update, all my messages have a structured "rhythm"...take for instance the capitalized words....count the words between each one of them...a pattern emerges which reveals the forecasters price level by end of March...if you still think this is a work of a drunk....then stop taking those little blue pills when you're home alone...and repeat the exercise!
Market is like a playground swing. the playground swing Accelerates on its way down, decelerates on its way Up, while Losing Bit speed to friction. the motion will eventually settle Down to a regular back and forth pattern, with Swing coming Up Again to same height. odd as it seems, the Motion often turn erratic, first high, then lower, never Settling down Steady State and then never exactly repeating a pattern of Swings that came before. the erratic behavior comes from…Surprise!...systematic Bears’ incremental push upward…
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Although the mean reversion factor was spot on. The level or target price wasn't. 1992 was the year end target for the S&P 500 and unless something spectacular occurs on the last couple of trading days, the number was a little understated...as was the price for this stock. Convinced it would push up a little lower than 20 bucks at 19 dollars and 92 cents...the price target was overstated...maybe not this year...this year has generally been a difficult year for accurate predictions...but there is an explanation for that...
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It was a Monday, approaching noon, S&P 500 was dropping fast when it suddenly reverses course right at the 1992ish level and ends up for the day...
Someone likened this year's market price action to a roller coaster, I've said it again, back in July, to me, this is a "playground swing" market.
So what was the average price of the S&P 500 for the past 10 weeks or 2 and a half months? Well...the mean reverting market had a 50-DMA come in at 1992.
October 12th, 1992: it's a Monday, the S&P 500 TR YTD return is down 40bps around noon...
October 12th, 2015: it's a Monday, the S&P 500 TR YTD return is down 40bps around noon...
As I pointed out 2 and a half months ago YTD return was identical to 1992s...today it's identical again...will YTD be identical again in 2 and a half months from today? If so, I'll be checking for more parameters for year end...
Superb Mean Reversion