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Oppenheimer Holdings Inc. Message Board

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  • superbmetamorphosis by superbmetamorphosis Jan 29, 2015 11:41 PM Flag

    The relationship between past and present has been something many have contemplated. The past – and all that it signifies – most certainly has a firm grip on the present for it carries the weight of tradition, legacy, and more importantly, memory. But some glorify the past and just dwell in its historical trends. What these forecasters fail to understand is that the past inherently signifies an absence as it holds within it that which is no longer present. Despite this absence, it still creates an odd sense of certainty to the forecasters who by an absence of a strategy of their own, cannot adjust when the historical trends too depart.

    This idea of the past weighing in on the present, by relying on the living memory of past events, result in “dead” trends in the present and it actually creates an outcome that is more wrong – an outcome that is followed by a majority and works for some time but it does not negate the fact that the trend followed is the wrong investment approach. For all that computer models indicate, and for all its information, one is left wondering if it can really predict outliers. Because the past might outweigh the present for an extended time period but it will only result in crippling future predictions when an unforeseen event arises.

    Moreover, the use of past events is quite telling in answering how precise these hypothetical analyses can be and for how long. It conveys how unresponsive these computer models really are by how readily they evoke the past, without a systematic/selective change in tactics, and how crippling that is for an overall strategy.

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