It might be as simple as the floods in Texas relieving a bit of anxiety from this fall's prices.
A run to the two for corn would be disastrous.
I did not add either.
There is a Chilean wine concern higher up on my list, it is very well run but has also hit the skids. Just like RAVEN, It is and ADR and very narrowly traded but has a strong global position and reputation. Their symbol is VCO. Their wines are tough to beat quality/price at any range.
The play is China where they do not have to displace the locals.
And I do respect the small regional brokerage of Dougherty more than most of the more famous outfits--I think it possible that they would publish promising developments to authors from Barrons as quasi representatives of management. A dangerous practice but possible. I'm sure Dan would like to have a more comfortably upbeat year---finally.
Yet I don't expect to buy shares at the current elevated price even though there is room for them in my portfolio.
It is possible, I suppose, that Dan said something to Dougherty reps which would give a clue that Raven has turned a corner. Of course, such information is supposed to be distributed to all concurrently, but, no matter how careful, such information can be determined. In fact, one of the things I've done in driving past Raven's various plants would be like that--and I've reported it to you though theoretically the information is available to anyone who wishes to look at it.
If the price keeps going up for another couple of days, I might conclude that there really has been some sort of promising development of which I'm not aware.
Forget about the article, but lets take a look at what the insiders have started to do the last two months, and that is, buying some shares, which you really haven't seen in years.
I am regularly amazed by the temporary effect of such an article or a brokerage recommendation has on the stock price. I have virtually no confidence in those recommendations, so any stock effect seems to me to be silly but valuable for efficient buys or sales. Of course there is also the probability that some bodies will take advantage of those blips while also providing the promotional material. I doubt that is the case for Dougherty though.
The "Sizing Up Small Caps" column has a nice article on Raven this week. I posted the entire article at the IV message board, but here is an excerpt from the story.
IN THE PLASTIC-SHEETING business, oil-and-gas customers account for about 35% of sales. Raven also supplies sheeting and coverings to other industries, and to agricultural customers. That business, which has been strong, will help to offset the weakness on the oil-and-gas side, potentially leading to flat division revenue for the year.
Raven’s participation in Google’s Project Loon could be a big opportunity that isn’t getting adequate credit from investors. Dougherty’s James says there is a 70% chance that Google will proceed with the project, perhaps by next year, which could mean orders for tens of thousands of balloons. James estimates Project Loon could generate $50 million to $100 million in annual revenue for Raven, and be worth between $4 and $8 to the stock. Raven has no competition in its ballooning business.
Raven management is on the hunt for acquisitions, and has plenty of financial flexibility to make a deal. Maintaining the dividend is also a priority; the company has paid one for 42 consecutive years.
While Raven’s business is cyclical, the company shouldn’t be dismissed. When markets turn up, the company’s shares are apt to take flight.
That is really getting back to the core of Raven--initially formed to produce balloons in 1956. One of the 4 original Gen. Mills engineers who came to Sioux Falls from Mpls was at the annual meeting a few years ago. Raven withdrew from the hot air recreational balloon business a few years ago while offering to provide support for balloons still in service. Largely, I think, for liability reasons, but I suspect it was also a difficult market to service due to many individual buyers.
The Aerostar division holds some investment potential IMO, despite being old and usually unexciting. Loon could provide a bit more pzaaz to the business. Great story you posted about the launch cage you posted on IV, Steve. That picture of the single guy holding a little balloon in the wind looked almost like a joke--surely that cannot be an actual early LOON launch. Can it?
As this is a FFP contract, does anyone have a good enough understanding to judge the risk here? Meet all requirements for way less than $6M = big profit, and obviously visa versa. Are most all their DOD contracts FFP or are some CPFF?
At least I rather be in the core than in the limelight.
Good news. Luckily they did not sell every thing else to capitalize on the failed ag boom.
Also saw an article in Bloomberg about Loon.
Google's Mike Cassidy describes two advancements that could help Project Loon become commercial as soon as next year
NASA is attempting to launch a Raven Aerostar high altitude balloon this week in Hawaii. The 34 million cubic feet balloon will carry an 8,000 pound device—being tested for future flights to Mars—to the edge of space.
Lots of coverage on TV, but no mention of Raven.
NASA's #LDSD balloon launch from Hawaii is go for today! You can watch live on NASA TV beginning around 7 a.m. HST (12 noon, Central Time).
Sioux Falls, SD (June 1, 2015) — Raven Industries (NASDAQ: RAVN) has been awarded a firm-fixed price (FFP) contract through the Naval Air Warfare Center Aircraft Division Lakehurst, N.J. for the procurement of Exportable Persistent Ground Surveillance Systems (EPGSS), spare equipment and technical support. The tethered aerostat contract was awarded for approximately $6 million and is expected to be delivered over the next 12 months.
“Raven Aerostar is proud to support past and present efforts protecting and defending U.S. and Coalition forces. Whether it’s with our tethered aerostat systems, Vista Radars or stratospheric balloons, we have the unique ability to deliver affordable persistent solutions at any altitude,” explains Lon Stroschein, Raven Aerostar Vice President and General Manager.
Found this on Seeking Alpha, but not on Raven website, so can't vouch for the accuracy.
Jun 1 2015, 08:35 ET | About: Raven Industries, Inc. (RAVN) | By: Yoel Minkoff, SA News Editor
Raven Industries (NASDAQ:RAVN) has been awarded a firm-fixed price contract through the Naval Air Warfare Center Aircraft Division for the procurement of Exportable Persistent Ground Surveillance Systems and other equipment.
The $6M tethered aerostat contract is expected to be delivered over the next 12 months.
Hi Skip. I found a 13 G/A filing from Jan. 13, 2010 that showed Moquist owning just under the 5% limit with the box for that checked. There were a few Form 4s filed after that, but I think after he left the company his holdings were under the 5% level requiring filings. Would be interesting to know if he still holds some and whether he has much in the way of conversations with current management.