A feel for how well they are working together. I reread my post and see a mistake--my calls this morning were for $4, not five. I entered the order last night and it filled this morning though I assumed the price would pull back today as it started to do. But now up to new highs and perhaps I'm going to be proven wrong. But I'm currently over 10% and any calls sold are just bonus as I would need to sell at $37.50 or so today if I hadn't committed to them.
I do intend to keep selling calls as the price rises and such that they would sell off my shares faster than the total regained 10%. Partly I'm thinking 10% is now too much of RAVN given my lack of understanding and partly it is that typically some shares get taken away, but eventually I've sold calls above the final high point before a market crash or some internal problem and those are not called away providing a nice bonus for me.
I did sell some calls yesterday (still showing on Yahoo at $2.60 for Feb 35's) and this morning some 35's for May sold for $5. I am now considering offering some 40's for May. Like you, I don't see how EPS of $1.30 or so for the year would justify a price of $39--or even $35. And I'm not at all sure that Rykhus has turned all that new plant into an efficient enterprise.
I was going to report to you that I did a driveby of the airport campus last Sunday and was a little discouraged or hopeful depending upon my mood. The parking lots were all full of rolls of plastic, some of them tattered or missrolled. Might be feedstock for the new recycling line or might be mistakes which never used to be exposed to my view. Seeing the report yesterday, I guess the fact is that the plant is so busy that they really don't have much time to be keeping everything shipshape.
And then over at AT there is a whole new wing to the building which was there last year. More site work still in process. The physical plant is much better looking than it was 5 years ago, but then a lot of money has been spent on it. As we've been discussing, the prognosis turns upon whether all that invested capital is going to eventually become profitable. Not yet, is my diagnosis.
Aerostar looks anemic and I believe the long building across from EF is now labelled for other divisions. I wonder what the plants in Huron and ????? are doing if the parachute order is completed. Sounded like maybe some aerostats are beginning to sell and that is good. I do like the idea of proprietary product vs. contract manufacturing though it is different from the old electronic/contract sales which stabilized the whole company in years past. Less of a mfg co. and more of an engineering/creative company which makes them harder for me to predict.
So from my point of view we are still waiting to see how it goes. Maybe I'll have time for the annual meeting again this year and can get a feel.
Well, I am glad I kept most of my Raven, but will have to admit I am surprised with the strength of today's move up. I was kind of hoping to hear something about the Nemesis product line, but missed it if it was there. Feels like we are a little overvalued for the moment. But, the market is at record levels, so I guess Raven should be also. As a company, they are at least as good as the average company and probably much better over the longer term. I might consider selling some calls, but the spreads are huge and the premiums don't look that good to me.
I did read this on IV Steve. Thank you. Just very busy with the estate right now with little consistent effort to keep up with my own investments.
No mention of Raven in an article from today's WSJ, but sounds like they need Aerostar to me. Skip, check the article I posted on the IV site.
As I reread the PR, I do see a potential tie to our radar engineers in the east (I can't think of the name right now). The PR clearly states that this product hides things from radar like those guys are devoloping, so perhaps that is the tie to Aerostar. Again, it seems a lot of investment in new technology while the old stuff languishes.
I just looked up Gore Associates. An interesting private company and interesting lattice organization. They have several factories around the world according to Wikipoedia and originated as chemists though they are multidisciplinary now with teams set up--apparently no bosses--so a team might think is smart to get some other mfg company to go through a lot of the developmental work for both markets and processes rather than costing their own company money.
Goretex is apparently one of their products but even more some wire encapsulating/insulating products. Seems to me that I see lots of brands of Gore-Tex products so probably they simply license the use of their patented material and that could be what Raven is doing as well. But if so, does that mean Raven is going to try to market such product?
I often have the same problem with planning to do something but not pulling the trigger. Not in this case though and I'm up to my limit again.
Promotional PR from Raven is such a new function that I really don't know how to read this. Normally I would have expected some sort of contract with an branch of the armed forces under which I might get some clues as to the character being camouflage. Here it sounds like Aerostar (and Gore) are promoting a product for retail distribution? Aerostar got out of "outerwear" which was sold through big box stores and closed many sewing factories in early 2000 because Moquist could not see a profitable future there. I don't know how similar this deal is, but it sounds like the poorly functioning Aerostar division, in an effort to make something after losing contracts for aerostats and parachutes and hazmat suits, wants to try to make money in it's old nemesis.
I'd have to understand the deal better for a better analysis, but I'm not thrilled at this point.
Right now the zooming share price is my Nemesis. It's back over where I lightened up at $32.50. Had planned to add back at lower levels, but never pulled the trigger. Does anyone have any thoughts about how important this new Nemesis product will be? It seems to fit well with other Aerostar product lines, but no idea what the volume might be.
Sioux Falls, SD (September 10, 2013) — Raven Aerostar (NASDAQ: RAVN), leader in the design and manufacture of specialty sewn and sealed products and surveillance technology, announced today its groundbreaking signature management product line: NEMESIS™ Garments, Personal Hides and Equipment Covers. Raven Aerostar and W.L. Gore & Associates (Gore®) have partnered together to develop multispectral camouflage and signature concealment garments, hides and covers. NEMESIS represents a breakthrough in signature concealment for warfighters and security personnel. Using GORE® Multispectral Concealment materials, NEMESIS Garments, Personal Hides and Equipment Covers are the first material technology that greatly reduces the range of detection from sophisticated radar technology and multi-spectral electro-optical/infrared (EO/IR) sensors.