Well.. maybe short the news and cover on the lows.
This co has been around a long time, and rarely posts a qtrly profit.
On those rare occasions that they do, it's due to a unique, one-time gain.
They are projected to lose $3/ share this year and $2 / share next yr.
I see no reason to hold this thing.
Oh I know, I know.. they are in 'transition' to a new biz model right now.. LOL !!
That's been the story for the last 6 years...
First we value a car company based on the assumption that EVERYONE will put to model S vehicles in their garage at a cost of $100,000 each. Now we are saying everyone will spend $6,000 to have a battery sitting next to their house that may last a few hours when and if needed. Musk made his money selling rockets to NASA. It was a way for the government to fund his car company. But they were not supposed to cost over $100,000 each. Now this eccentric millionaire thinks everything he touches is gold. It is not. It is only priced that way.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Co's going to lose over $2 / share this year, even more in 2016.
This tesla thing will never hit the bottom line an any meaningful manner. Just a few more billable hours of engineering time for Enernoc.
thanks .. they seem to be flush with cash ,,, and @ some point the politicians are going to address the grid issue.. oh yeah i forgot ,,, they are all stupid ,, and will attack the problem the day after the grid is destroyed ..
I have always loved ENOC's story and traded it from the mid trinities down ,,, but usually kept my losses to a minimum ,, I am thinking of putting on a much bigger position ,,, any thoughts ?
It appears that David Brewster agrees with you, with a legitimate insider purchase at 10.75 a few days ago. I am in for two boats at 10.59. Looking to lighten up sometime soon, but unfortunately liquidity with ENOC is usually the limiting factor.
lesserfool --- murphy's law there .... I feel your pain, been there & done that on "timing" many times. Best to stick with rules as you did (even though it didnt work in your favor here) as the odds work themselves out over a broad range of trades.
I'm still long ENOC but it is definitely a perplexing one. As I posted on this board in the past, I like that they are transitioning to SaaS model as company. *If* they become the 800 lb gorilla in the space, then you can expect 5-10x multiples (latter on buyout) of SaaS revenue. Their projection for 2015 SaaS revenue is $140M, so make of that what you will.
I think what is killing the stock right now is the complete and utter lack of guidance in advance that would have prepared people --- anyone --- for the surprise that was given for forward guidance. Institutional investors dont want surprises .... not that individuals want them either, but institutions are the ones that give stocks like this a base.
I dont personally have a problem with them trading near term profit for revenue growth and market share (on the basis of the aforementioned multiple). Seems a prudent thing to do. But ... do that with some reasonably accurate guidance, avoid massive surprises. IMO, the street just isnt willing to give credence to the $140M projection on the SaaS side right now as a result of the surprise. And institutions dumping have pressured the stock. If they deliver on the numbers, then this is massively underpriced here. But that will take some time to play out. A really hot summer might help sentiment some.
For what its worth, I had considered taking my profits at 19 but stayed long for the opposite reason you closed out your short ---- I dont sell into strength before earnings. We should have swapped portfolio management for a bit there, and we'd both be happier for it today. ;-)
Hey, no problem. I shorted at 17.3x, rode it up to near 19, then covered at 17.4x right before earnings. I try not to hold during earnings, but I sure wish I had broken that rule this time! From a historical perspective, it sure appears like a good price here. It may be good for a technical bounce in the short term, but this could very well be a value trap in the medium to longer term. They are continuing their transition from a DR company into a software company. With an unclear market size and unclear investment needs, this business will be much harder to value going forward. Plus, I don't see anything good coming out of the PJM auction this spring, given everything happening in the energy sector lately. Finally, management has been very good at awarding themselves new shares and acquiring goodwill. I don't see any of that changing. Will continue to check in here occasionally. Good luck! -lf
Lesserfool, sorry -- you posted to me a couple of months ago. I wasn't around, wasn't watching and missed your post.
What a huge drop. I'll read up and maybe listen to the call this weekend. Saw it was pretty bad. But with a drop of this magnitude, a short term trade to capture some recovery --