This morning trading suggests it may succeed in closing above the 200 DMA today. That would be bullish with the next resistance occurring around 7.73, the February high.
I would love to hear your assessment of ENOC but I don't care about your opinion about another person's opinion. Speak for yourself or shut up!!
Looks like we have significant resistance at the 200 DMA. If ENOC can't break through that resistance today or tomorrow, I expect it will retrace to the 50 DMA before testing the 200 DMA again.
I have a speculative "mattress" portfolio. This portfolio is focused on the transformation occurring in the energy industry. I added ENOC to this portfolio in July, 2015. The concept behind this portfolio is to shove these stocks under the mattress for 3 to 5 years. It is equally weighted between ENOC, TSLA, CLNE, and solar stocks, SPWR and SCTY. I consider the portfolio speculative and would not be surprised if 1 or more fail but expect expect the total gains to double the portfolio within the horizon mentioned.
I also trade in these same stocks using another asset pool. A week ago my trading position in ENOC was twice as big as the investment position. Today they are about the same size.
I like your 5.40 estimate and will probably trade on it depending on how I read the charts next week.
At the same time, the cup and handle analysis needs to be used with caution in this situation. The big cup you see was driven by fundamentals; a drop due to disappointing earnings; a rise triggered by a positive Supreme Court decision. It seems to me fundamentals will decide the next big move and the next earnings report is likely to be our first fundamental news.
In the interim, I am using trading range analysis as the market struggles to value ENOC. Since I believe in ENOC's long term prospects, this trading range analysis has an upward bias.
Today the price seemed to test the top of its range as it broke the 200 DMA but failed to test the recent 7.73 high. It also failed to close above the 200 DMA. IMO, this means it will now test the low end of the range.
One could argue 4.16, the most recent low is this number but it coincided with the 50 DMA at the time. I believe ENOC bounced off the 50 DMA and expect it to do so again.
As we study the 50 DMA, it also becomes apparent that the 50 DMA is likely to cross the 100 DMA within the next 2 weeks at about 5.05. Some technicians will see this cross as a buy signal and so the bottom is likely to coincide with this cross. Since I expect the stock to test the 50 DMA, the bottom will be 5.05. Perhaps the decline will be slower than I expect and the stock won't test the 50 DMA. if so, the cross may occur with a stock price of 5.40 and you will be right. Either way I think the 50 DMA crossing the 100 DMA is the buy signal for short term traders. ... 5.40 to 7.15 or so is not a bad return for a couple of weeks.
With this cup and handle formation, I would expect the stock to correct to around $5.40, which is a 60% retracement of the move. I don't see it going lower than $5.40. However, both our numbers are close to each other.
If it isn't obvious from the message...I expect ENOC to recover to at least the 200 DMA after it goes to 5.05. That recovery may take an additional week or two at which point the 200 DMA will be lower than today but still well above 6.00. At this point ENOC may close above the 200 DMA but after which it will go on to test the February high of 7.73 and perhaps the November high of 8.50. After that I expect trading will range between the 50 DMA and 8.50 until the next earnings report which is almost 3 months away.
Based on today's behavior, I want to refine my prediction. ENOC stock will fall for a few days until the 50 DMA crosses the 100 DMA. This should occur within the next 5 to 10 days. Assuming the price closes above the 50 DMA, this cross will be a buy signal. This implies the buy price will be somewhere between 5.19, the 100 DMA today, and 4.70, the 50 DMA today. Looking at the curves, it will be really close to 5.05.
So to summarize, I expect ENOC to fall to a low of 5.05 between now, 3/4/2016, and two weeks from now, 3/18/2016. Most likely this will occur before next Friday, 3/11/2016. How is that for a precise forecast. Will I be right? Guess we will need to wait and see.
Despite the anemic volume, it looks like we may test the 7.73 high of February. I would be shocked and delighted to see us get above that price.
There just isn't any volume....with volume, I would be bullish but I am going to stick by my prediction that it will top here and then test the 50 DMA before heading higher.
It looks promising that it may break the 200 DMA today, 3/4/2016. Not a sure thing but certainly promising and that would confirm your suggestion that this is the leg to take us through that barrier.
Looks like the close 3/3/2016 will be closer to 6.84 than 6.75. Still very modest volume so I don't think we will succeed in holding the 200 DMA this round.
This afternoon is shaping up nicely. Yesterday's close appears to be holding with a low this morning of 6.73 and this afternoon of 6.74. This suggests we may see a test of the 200 DMA tomorrow. It would, however, surprise me if it closes above that tomorrow. We will need to wait and see if that happens next week.
My expectation is it will test the 200 DMA and then the 50 DMA before closing above the 200 DMA. But the market often surprises me.