Can't believe this company cannot get creative and unlock shareholder value for the PA assets. Why not spin this off as a separate company? They do not have the problems Cabot has with differentials because they have excess takeaway capacity through their midstream holdings. TLM's PA assets could reasonably be valued at 4B or more as a stand alone company, just look at the valuations of other PA E&P's and they do not have the midstream. The only thing they talk about is selling the midstream only, which I think is a big mistake. Just cannot believe the geniuses that Icahn has on Board have not been more creative than just selling assets at discounted prices. I plan to keep holding as I feel there is real value in TLM.
to be completely accurate, I should note that although NG did set a new six month low yesterday for the third straight day, it rallied into the close to be actually up for the day. Today , in premarket it is flat, acting like it is reaching a bottom.
It should be noted that the natural gas storage stats are still decidedly below the 5 yr average and this is bullish for prices
the "gas" has been coming out of ng prices, with the 3rd straight new sixt month low being set today. Supply outlook is easing which means the price should continue to be soft.
This, of course , makes TLM , which is heavily weighted to natural gas, worth less, so not favorable for long positions.
shareprice on the Toronto exchange is bumping along near the 52 wk low, and it would not be surprising to see the NYSE listed shares continue to bump along near $10.
to buy or not to buy is the question individuals and corporations are both asking. Value depends on drilling results and the potential of the drillable prospects. TLM has been around a long time and it has some very good acreage in proven provinces. Indo is worth keeping in focus. Xom's discovery of the 600M bbl Cepu (Indo) field in an area thought to be drilled out is noteworthy. Similarly, North Dalota's Williston Basin was was all but written off 10 years ago, now it's the hottest area in play. Value is often defined by future events that remain unknown until they occur.
I have to agree with the other poster, no buyout of TLM, not going to happen, not even a remote chance. I don't know where you got that idea, but if you understand everything that goes with it, there is no company that would want to buy TLM completely , when you can parts for fire sale prices and buy plenty of other better deals on the market right now, why would any company be crazy to bid for the whole company when it will bring along huge problems and obligations, not to mention the huge debt load etc
thanks for the encouragement, I am not so sad, while I will lose money on this trade I have made money on other trades, just wanted to right a wrong I committed.
Based upon what I have learned, I believe that you are incorrect in your belief that TLM will be bought out completely. It just is not true or even plausible , if you look at the the realities.
There are just too many betteir choices by an acquiring company , and besides that TLM has a number of things and obligatoions that pretty much eliminate it from any serious complete buyout consideration
They are trying to sell parts, and are having trouble even doing that, even at fire sale prices. They will probably get some of those parts sold, but it is not very exciting, especially in the short term.
don't beat yourself up too much. many times your first instincts are correct. at some point there will be a buyout, it just might not be before your options expire. with 30 million acres net (14 M in SE Asia) TLM has lots of unrealized potential.
I want to apologize for my previous post asking about a buyout. I looked into things further and there is nothing to support that false rumor. Even worse , apparently they are having trouble selling unwanted assets even at fire sale prices.
Glad I only bought a few calls, they are going to zero, but at least my loss is limited.
Sorry if I misled anyone, it was unintentional, but a dumb move on my part.
I see unrealized value in TLM's legacy acreage above established petroleum systems. Reworking these proven areas with long reach laterals, some fracs and updated sesimc will occur. Value maybe $15 in buyout.
No, no, no, I sold much higher than that. But I don't see too much happening with the Iraq and North Sea albatrosses hanging around TLMs neck. The North Sea is a money pit they are committed to and no one else wants..
did i buy your shares at 10.21 today? i have a history of buying early but this is looking very nice. 10.08 looks to be the bounce. i say hang in there believe in Ichan.
Sentiment: Strong Buy