I owned GERN for 7 years . Every time stock went to $7-10 they issue more shares,Glad I sold at $2.50 and bought SIRI AT . 25. SOLD SIRI AT 3. and bought ALU AT $1
I believe they said "similar to what was seen in prior trials". Clearly Kad has an advantage over Her+Chemo and Perj in side effects and QOL. Let's see if they make any changes to the trials. Clearly ADC's have some advantages, but to make a big leap something needs to be improved, either the linkers, or the manufacturing process. I am not an expert, but I have heard people say there's a variable number of toxic molecules linked to each MAb in the current process and that adds to toxicity, or prevents optimal dosing. Not sure it that has been improved in the newer products from 289 and on, or not . It appears no for 529 and 853 based on what I've seen so far. We need to know more about the current products and status of next gen improvements.
Bio agree with your comments here. Question is are ADC's only good for less toxicity and not increased efficacy? How did Kadcyla efficacy do so well in 2nd line trials? Will this bring into question all of IMGNs assets in terms of a leader in ADC platform? Have ADC's missed their window now with IDHN 1-2, PD-1 & CAR T? This is what I am looking forward in the full Marriane readout, Roche analysis and response for next steps.
Let's assume in terms of efficacy, Kad = Kad + Perj = Her+Toxic chemo mix. It seems to me in terms of efficacy Perj failed to add efficacy to Kad. I believe they have trial results where Perj + Her + the toxic chemo mix did well in terms of efficacy?
In terms of safety, we all know QOL for Kad is superior to both of these alternatives. Given reasonable pricing, I think MD's and patients would probably prefer Kad. Roche can price their drugs in their own self interest, price Kad out with low prices for their alternatives because if efficacy is similar Ins co's prefer cheaper/assuming the side effects are not adding to overall cost. We will have to keep an eye on Kadcyla trials and see if they shut any down, change them, or start new trials. I think it's probably safe to assume Kad is not likely to be $10BB drug that totally replaces Herceptin any time soon and maybe never. The question remains will if be a $1BB, $2BB, $5BB or a high-priced dud.
We should also consider trading motivation before Jan 1 and after Jan 1. Normally, tax selling and window dressing would be finished. Friday's decline/debacle might generate more long tax selling. Shorts are now sitting on a huge gain. Will they wait until Jan to realize the gain (for window dressing and tax purposes), or might want to take the gain this year to offset their losses in other short positions? Will they want to wait another 2 years to see if immunotherapy and car-t totally replace ADC's, or even 2 weeks to see if the BOD fires Junius and hires Pien or another turnaround specialist to cut and sell?
Do we have a buyer that will pay a reasonable price? Every day I see private co's being acquired for $500MM-1BB that do't appear to have the potential of IMGN. Does IMGN have some technology that will make the next generation of ADC's better? If so, they better get out and start promoting it FAST and stop wasting shareholder dollars on any trials for old, toxic drugs that are me-too. Cut costs NOW!
This is exactly the risk with these high flying biotech stocks. They perform beautifully until bad news comes out then they plummet.
For a long time i've stayed out of the biotech's but recently i've gotten back in. Fortunately not in IMGN, but this could happen to ANY of these biotech companies. When a company has negative cash flow and bad news comes out look out below.
DNDN was a high-flying biotech that went belly-up, What they were doing and their business model has no relevance to IMGN. Calling IMGN another CELG or DNA would be as accurate and have as little relevance to the current situation. IMGN has a long way to play out either positively or negatively.
It also means you don't get wall street. I went short today at 6.75 and I will cover at $4..this is another DNDN.