just glancing at the news, looks like GTAT wants BK filings that are "double super secret", talk about an info vacuum for investors-speculators-gamblers
my bet had ended up at "decent used car" size, just sold 60% of the car, since I honestly know nothing about whats going on. the 40% left, that we'll just let ride, worse case salvage out 50-75 cents, and who knows, maybe in a year or 3 its 15-$20 stuff. Or even book value which yahoo says might be 1.50
so--gtat---there might be a real company there. Might even still be a company that has a bright future with AAPL. there are probably acres of sapphire furnaces in AZ right now with little to do. probably. will acres of furnaces soon be busy??
inefficient pricing: certainly included: surprise, fear, panic, margin calls, even "rules" requiring "no BKs allowed in my holdings", etc. Is gtat a zero for equity? could be but not overnite, isnt right now. Reality on all this, TBD.
thoughts: Was Apple really that wrong about GTAT, their abilities (to ramp and deliver product)? The schedule did seem unbelievably aggressive to me.
I read one, and only one piece right after the iP6 launch that "gtat missed by two weeks", two weeks was why no sapphire screen. That made it easy to think that a 6S might show up fairly soon (like the 5S) with S meaning sapphire this time.
surprise for sure. just posted over at wtt re gtat, got some $1 shares, on zero DD. so, assume they really were to supply sapphire laminate for iP6 and could not deliver on time, so no revenue. just a gambling bet, but some Ch11s do come back, equity not always zeroed vs EVERY BK filing does get dumped, so there can be a pricing inefficiency there.
huh, put up a nice post here earlier, apparently yahoo bounced it because it contained a link to a Yahoo "news" piece on baba. Gotta love Yahoo for destroying any value that was ever in their message boards.
I keep looking at rndy some. there is no-zero div, yahoo always misreports a div, almost a year now. will chicago-Marianos come on quick enough to service their debt load gracefully? tbd I guess, my dd there is minimal, just interested.
I have friends that do the exact same thing. I also consider myself a value guy and try to use the buffet-graham theory (hence our positions in HOFT). I was home from work yesterday and watched CNBC for a part of the day. I had to laugh at how many guys came on suggesting they would buy Alibaba no matter the price. You never seem to realize how many people just get caught up in the euphoria.
At one point Cramer mentioned that he actually went on the Alibaba website and they all looked at him with puzzled faces like why would you do that.
Goes to show you how many people just buy the headline of the day.
Thanks for sharing all that. Really the only reason I'm interested at all is because of this screwball neighbor / friend of mine who never seems to learn, always bets the farm on some story. I really need to just short whatever he buys. I am a bit interested in gtat, I think their process is interesting and real, using ion implant to cleave off thin layers of crystal, sapphire in this case. But like you're saying, if you can't value the thing, how can you know you're buying at a discount to value? (graham - buffet stuff). Anyways, my friend is all over alibaba fever now, got me interested enough to google up a few of the stories. And story it is, talk about people getting excited with near zero knowledge of what they might actually be buying. Another sign of an aging bull-market, some mania phase? tbd, regards, nm
I havent done the full DD on GTAT that I would do if i was considering entering a long position. This is because the financial multiples are well above where I would ordinarily consider a long investment. Price to book is currently 7.5x, which is considerably high and this is based on today's price after a significant move off of the high. It almost unheard of to see such a high multiple of book on a company not making any profit.
GTAT is calling for profits of a $1.50 per share on a nonGAAP basis in 2016. I generally prefer to see companies provide guidance in GAAP terms but wont automatically throw it away if they use nonGAAP. It's all about what they are removing or including between GAAP and nonGAAP earnings. Generally i dont care if they are excluding goodwill writeoffs as i feel the goodwill is already represented in the earnings number. However, adding back share-based compensation or interest on debt is just deceiving investors to sell them on a higher profit number. If I was considering a long investment, this is one of the first things i would dig into. Right now I dont really know what their GAAP to nonGAAP adjustments include.
The next question I'd ask is how much more costly is a Sapphire screen compared to a traditional Gorilla glass screen. If Sapphire screens are more expensive to manufacture and will cost more to implement, will they be able to pass that cost off to the consumer or will Apple have to eat those additional costs through their profit margins.
At the end of the day and over the long term, stock values are based on profits and how the book value of a company is expected to grow over time. While Sapphire screens sound great for the consumer, I expect Apple to continue to maximize profits of each unit sold.
At this point IMO GTAT is strictly a momentum play and I don't see any value in the name. This could change as the stock price gets cheaper.
Bull, any sense of what that gtat might actually be worth? Hard to believe they gave away the farm just to get in bed with aapl, their sapphire is apparently in the watches. I've got a hunch there will be a iP6S (s for sapphire this time), wild card idea maybe even by Christmas. (iPhones with pristine sapphire screens will sell well in the used market, up-graders always want to upgrade anyhow, I think the sapphire screens actually might help build the total # of iPhones in service that way, a semi "forever-phone" that doesn't really cannibalize (damaged/old) replacement sales much. Just a thought.
You're right of course, options are a suckers bet because of (impossible to) timing. But so far at least (40 years of this) I never short outright, for the standard reasons, so if I want to dabble (October Insurance?) a little on the short side, PUTs it is. But its gambling for sure, zero sum stuff.
Have you looked into puts on SCTY? That company is flying just by being associated with Musk. Long term I expect a complete meltdown in that company. However, with options its more about timing than being right on the call.
My guess is they'll just manage a product cycle here well enough for modest sales-earnings growth over the next year or three, plenty of pent up demand for iP6s. My 25 year old an example: Doesn't care about Apple, BUT he'll ditch his Android now for iP6, probably the big one. And I wouldn't be surprised to see him with the watch a year from now. I don't see enough honest growth / market mania for AAPL to be a 2X thing, but stranger things have happened. What I think I see is minimal downside, 2% yield that assume will get boosted (div amount boosted), low risk shot at 10-20% over the next year, even if the Fed starts to hike. JMHO, what I really want now is for hyped-greater-fool TSLA to run out of fools! (that's the gambling corner :-) assume "they" want more aapl, only negative they seem to have is "wheres China deal?", so I'm waiting for some "exploding battery" story, some such, for a possible discount op.