I hope some of the executives that agreed to this go to jail for not following their fudicary obligations.
If it weren't for the restrictive MLP regulations, I'm sure they would have fought harder to stay separate. As it is, it's better for IRA holders...
At some point people are going to realize that u still need Fuel. Refiners are one of the last places
to turn off the lights. The dividend yield keeps going up the PE already very low less than 1/2 the market
goes down We have had NO rebound to speak of and WNR has fallen almost straight down. Even in horrible
markets in the past u get large rebounds at some point . This stock is beyond FIRE SALE . SHorts will get too greedy and blow their gains and those who sold might end up chasing this back up the ladder at some point soon
NTI price was held up based on the buyout options, everything is going down based on lower oil cost and China currency devaluation - The only bright spot is while the 4th Q results will be bad the margins for Q 1 of 2016 are much much better and results will be good - if I can afford to hold onto my shares through August.
The 4th Q had a WTI discount to brent of from 0 to less than a dollar so the 4th Q report will be BAD, but the good news is share prices have more bad news baked into them and the discount for the 1st Q of 2016 appears to be running around $3.25 for wti to brent so the 1st Q earnings will be good meaning more like the first 3 Q's of 2015 so share price by August should move up to $35.00 if price relates to earnings.
Good buy, the facts are refiners went throgh a BAD 4th Q as the WTI to Brent discount disappeared, however, the 1st Q of 2016 the discount is running at $3.25 so this will be immensely better than the 4th Q earnings and all the market sees is low oil price and crazy as it seems thinking its over they have the upstream stocks UP, while the reality is they are losing money hand over fist and the Downstream refiners are once again in the Sweet spot and unfortunately it will take till the August month for actual numbers to appear and the market see the huge profits are back with refiners so BUY now and when August hits you will see what I am saying.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
U see these stupid articles daily about gasoline stockpile. Season vest just laugh every year u get a build in the wintertime . Hedge fund market manipulators. U would think they would cover after a 40& point drop.
in a few weeks.Greed will get them u watch
Of course I'm biased, I bought some shares at $30.80, and thought they were dirt cheap there too, but fundamentals for refiners certainly aren't bad, WNR will probably pickup NTI cheap (too cheap IMO), and oil is probably not going to stay in the basement forever (and I think incorrectly the refiners are selling off with oil).
My theory is that maybe the refiners are getting punished because they are part of 'Energy' ETF's, so when oil goes down, the refiners tend to be sold as part of those ETF baskets. If so, they are being sold-off irrationally, and so the current prices represent a bargain.
I know the crack spread is not quite as favorable now as a month ago, but hey, these guys are still doing well, and NOT being devastated by low oil prices the way an oil service company is for example.
Of course, we won't know until Feb 25th what their quarterly report shows, but is there anything else that I'm not considering here that would make one want to stay away from refiners at this point?
I ask in part because I'm considering buying more of WNR or other refiners, but maybe there's a good reason that refiners are still a 'sell' that I'm not taking into account, so comments and other viewpoints
Excellent question, I have no idea... If the market didn't for some reason like the NTI acquisition, well, it's already gone down hard for that. I myself see the acquisition as a plus, since they're getting a great company at a very reasonable valuation. I suppose it's possible that insiders know that the 4th qtr report will really stink, that would be my only logical guess. Or it could be it's just the weakest from a pure technical analysis point of view?