Has anyone "DONE" the calculations? Like Norris stated, there's a good chance the ratings agencies may have before they announced their upgrade. Just sayin'............
Short term thinking, unless you really don't like the stock. IMO you're passing up longer term dollars in favor of short term pennies. To each his own. That's what makes the world go around.
This is what was on my news ticker...
Raymond James upgraded LinnCo (NASDAQ: LNCO) from “outperform” to “strong buy.” The target price for LinnCo is set to $37 . LinnCo's shares closed at $28.01 yesterday.
How about Raymond James upgrade of LINCO, insider buying, no more shares to short at Fidelity and way over sold. A little something for everyone.
BRY merger complete
Cold winter (so far)
Index funds should be about out soon enough
Safe distribution (if not increased eventually, though I hope they learned a lesson about having a little more room there going forward)
Is it that you can't think of anything, or just can't think? I'm sure there are more, but those are my pre-coffee top of the head reasons it has room to grow. I think the upside is much higher than the potential downside at this point. I'm thinking we are looking at a low to mid 30's stock hereby march time frame. After that it is all going to come down to performance.
Make sense now I get it !! Problem is that there are over 40 million BRY shares held by institutions with hedge funds and short sellers piling on look for lots of selling pressure to continue!. thanks for the good post!
Elliot Miller on SA (I'll just copy his comment):
"Here is what I been told was the significant reason for the sell-off in LNO and LINE. BRY was a member of the Russell index and thus a component of many index funds. Linn is not a component of any index and thus cannot be owned by index funds. About 5 million BRY shares had to be sold immediately by index funds after the announcement of the vote results. Those BRY shares could not be replaced by LNCO shares or LINE units.The steep decline in BRY dragged down LNCO and LINE."
I think this is also in line (heh heh) with the theory that institutions who held BRY would not want LNCO, a retail yield stock. Assuming these effects are related, perhaps we'll see selling pressure that should abate relatively quickly after the beginning of the year.
To illustrate that, let's look at yield since the end of the financial crisis. As you can see, the present period is an aberration, throughout 2011, 2012 and the early part of this year yield was in the 7-8% range. If you apply the median of 7.5% to the likely 2014 distribution in the $3.05 range, that's $40+. One of the biggest mistakes you can make about markets is to assume present conditions will carry into the future.
I don't know if the short interest has been reduced. Yesterday at Fidelity I could of shorted 10k shares @ 36% interest rate. Today I was curious to see what the borrowing rate was and there were no shares available to be shorted. Curious as to the availability of shares to be shorted at other brokerage firms. We need some big institutional investors to get on board and put the squeeze on the shorts. Until that happens the shorts are in control. I am a long too many shares and cannot risk anymore funds to one stock. GLTA
Check one of my recent posts. My estimate of LINE plus BRY cash flow from operations for 2013, with three out of four quarters already in the bag, is bit above $1.9 billion. For 2014, expect quite a bit more than that with synergies, Permian acquisition, the merged businesses doing more better faster.
I will not go to the double. But I would agree LINE may see something in the Permian assets which is not recognized by the market.
HOUSTON (ICIS)--US spot ethane prices at the Mont Belvieu hub in Texas rose to a six-month high on Tuesday.
Ethane spot prices were assessed at 28.00 cents/gal, the highest price since the week ending 24 May, when prices hit a high of 28.50 cents/gal.
So this along with propane makes me think 1.1 at the high end of guidance is not unreasonable. Open question is how the extremely cold weather might have slowed production.
So if 1.1 base add 10bps oil acquisition and 10bps on BRY we are looking at coverage around 1.3. Before the 'capital efficiency' improves on the better margins oil is offering.
Certainly LNCO with a 10% tax sheltered yield is not priced for a 1.3 coverage ratio which should logically improve.
As you noted if the Hogshooter OK wells are slowed in favor of other opportunities it is telling us something. ;)
Good fortune to us both.