Is there an underlying message being sent ? Could " Games " be a :Guise " ?? hen You corner a rat ,it can be deadly . Stay tuned folkz , the show / showdown must go on............. Oil not staying low for long term.... not a chance.
They should cut the dist in half and hire a new mgt team that can run a company with a conservative mgt style, build cash flow and reduce debt....they need to do something drastic to regain some credibility instead of a gunslinger approach to business...
I always believed that you had until the end of the year based on trade date...but I usually take losses before this time ..so when I googled it I got several websites reporting the settlement as the date. I noticed that they were Canadian, but they all said the same thing . They couldn't be all wrong...well guess what they were.. Thanks for clarifying... so we still have 3 more days to wait for tax losses to end .
Oh of course you did. And you took a position in LINN I remember you saying and are losing. BAC has more then a few thieves I mean fleas. BAC I wouldn't own if you gave me shares. They have the worse reputation on wall street and here in our area as well.
i know they don't have to in the short term, but ngl's have fallen out of bed and it may be they just decide more prudent to conserve cash. my question was if they did decide to do that where would it trade, i'm not suggesting they actually will.
The problem with your hypothesis is LINN doesn't have to "suspend" their dividend. They have hedges in place through 2017. Therefore a better assumption is they may "cut" the dividend in half (50% - worse case). That means the stock will be at $15 SP with a 10% approximate yield.
just assume nat gas and ngl's go down more and oil trends lower, yes they could probably pay the distribution for a while due to the hedges, but linn decides for the long term health of the company to suspend the distribution, or knocks it down to practically nothing in order to improve the balance sheet and ensure it's position as a premium player as an upstream mlp in the future . where does the price of the stock go in the short term?
WTI pricing trades as futures out 2-3 months and futures contracts are influenced by the news, media and statistics. Lower rig counts, lower OIL output, reduced budgets etc... all impact futures trading, As the news and media continue to reduce these figures the futures contracts will begin to price increases heading into 2015. This may come much quicker than you think.
The Saudi's plan is to let Non Opec ( Probably in reality Non Gulf Opec ) producers become the swing producers. In addition to Libya, other non Gulf oil producers might descend into chaos and suspend production. Sure some smaller frackers might go belly up but their assets will be gobbled up by bigger players. WTI goes back up to $65.00 then more and more fracked oil becomes viable again. Perhaps there won't be a Keystone pipeline, but there will be tremendous political pressure for additional Bakken pipelines which would add $12.00 a barrel to the well head price for typical Bakken plays). So I suspect that the shale plays might stabilize in production rather than decline.
My guess is it will be the natural decline rate in production that can't be replicated with today's pricing that will turn crude's price around. Assuming that new Shale oil production (not including flow from old stripper wells ) equals 5 mlllion barrels per day and World Oil Production is 94 million barrels per day... that leaves 89 million barrels per day of non shale production. Assuming a natural decline rate of 5.5% per annum and that takes away about 4.9 million barrels per day.
Balance that against an inventory of projects (that already have sunk in costs) that are unprofitable based on all in costs but are viable on marginal investment basis. For example, there are supposed to be an inventory of 600 proved fracking wells that are awaiting completion as well as off shore projects nearing completion that will work against that 4.9 million barrel annual production decline.
Meanwhile the inventory build is supposed to be about 2.2 million barrels a day.
Your post justifies my rationale for a LINN bottoming process. Its when the mentality and emotions begin to cloud logical reasoning and hope is lost and fear sets in that we investors know "we are close to a bottom". This post is one good example of this train of thought. What is important to understand is historically OIL stocks bottom months before the price of crude hits a bottom. It is very difficult to establish when true bottom has hit only after the fact and a 25% upside miss. The facts are OIL is a commodity with supply/demand regulating its market price. Yes we are in a decline due to excess OIL in the market and reluctance of OPEC to cut production. OPEC saw a low in November of 1M barrels imported to US. This trigger was the deciding factor for them to reduce OIL surplus by allowing OIL price to slide (no cuts) in order to reduce rig counts. A chart of rig counts vs WTI pricing historically tells the story. Now with that said, Non-OPEC countries are hurting each day as Billions are lost and budgets are defaulting. SA is already under budget and starting to feel the pain with huge losses on a daily basis. History tends to repeat itself just in different economics and technology. This time is shale production which is still mostly expensive, high rate of decline wells and cannot withstand lower OIL pricing. The 1st quarter of 2015 will see a huge rig count decline and begin to have a high impact in US OIL output. The SA goal is to reduce US output by 1M barrels. This will occur much quicker than most estimate. The price of OIL will once again regulate itself and bottom in the very near future. With all this said, LINN energy is a hedged 100% in NG thru 2017 and 60-70% hedged in 2015, and 50-60% hedged in 2016. The unhedged portions seem to be scaring the average investor but what is known is that hedges can be exercised for huge profits. This will provide LINN with some cushion for lower OIL erosion in 2015.
When Oil dropped below 90 I told you to sell....you continue to read Ann Landers gossip over here on yf...You are swimming in a sea of RED.....better known as debt.....go over to SA and read Richard Zeits article and learn something instead of focusing in on the loser 24% yield....I can't believe you hang on to this piece....You better hope they cut the distribution or they will die right before your eyes.....