the CEO is from a average company that did not do any better then CE. He was the lead director when the previous CEO made many empty promises to us the shareholders and he did nothing about it. He now is running something he has no knowledge of, is much larger then he has experience with, he has made no changes in management to help him develop better thinking better strategy better execution, he is still dealing with his (as a board member) and his previous CEO bad decisions not to pay down debt. His management team is in immediate need of replacement. It is time for shareholders to demand a change. This CEO and management team are incapable to drive Our shareholder value. We need to stand up and demand change. We should be at the $80 stock price the previous CEO promised us. It is not happening.
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At a forward PE of under 10, one has to wonder why CE is being hit harder than other stocks in the specialty chemical space. Perhaps leveraged balance sheet? Perhaps reduced prospects for ethanol domestically (in China and Indonesia it could be big)? Perhaps too low dividend? The management has taken some steps and they need to continue to reduce debt, increasse dividend, and bring in more qualified professional to run this company. CE Board should explore strategic alternatives to move the PE up - perhaps sell whole or parts to LBO investors such as Carl Ichan.
lots of happy talk from CEO on his blog, he joins another board, less attention to CE. Mean time shareholders are left hanging. We were promised $70 to $80 by now. Not one promise has been kept. We need to hold this management team accountable, lets make our voice heard, go to shareholder meetings and hold CEO accountable to answer hard questions on share price, debt, ethanol, re-investment in methanol, weak management team.
They also confuse your mind, because you don't want to sell when they run away and you don't want to buy them back when the stock falls. When you sell CCs, you are also saying "I only believe this can run up this much", and that's kind of dumb way to think, because on the upside, you'd be pleasantly surprised, and the downside you hate how much they cost to buy back and they stick you into a losing play. Do I sell? Buyback? Buy more common underneath? You sell them thinking you'll collect the premium "for free" but THERE IS NO FREE MONEY, so it gets your thinking into goofballism.
Let me assure you of one thing: What you can sell a CC for is slightly LESS than EXACTLY what it is worth, whether you think it is worth less or more or whatever you think. It is like selling a dollar bill for 97 cents because you like the feel of metal coins in your pocket more than paper.
And then I hear the true beginners talk about "hey, if the stk falls, I can buy back the calls, and a guy once detailed for me how he had bought some stock and sold CCs and bot them back and sold them again and bot them back and sold them again and he was thinking he had made money on the trades. I showed him how all those trades really made him zero, in fact, less than zero bec the commissions. And he STILL had to hold the stock and he STILL had to look at the POS every day.
They suck, OK? Very simple. Every once in a while, OK. But as a trading methodology that you try to do on (almost) every trade, they are dirt. They are an amateur trap. Go do 100 CC plays and get back to me and let me know if you still think they cool.
No! They are NEVER good. Or...OK, they are good 15% of the time, but you cannot know which 15% of the time they are good, which means you have to GUESS which 15% of the time they are good, and you are only right let us say half the time, so they are only good 7.5% of the time, which is poor odds.
First...it is quite the different story if you sell ITMs vs OTMs.
I could go into a stupid lengthy explanation like I have done 500 times. But simply put:
If you are willing to hold the stock against the short call, BE A MAN and be willing to hold the dang stock. Get the upside instead of giving it away.
If you DON'T want to sell the stock, SELL IT.
If you don't know what the hell to do, buy a married put 10 points in the money for very little premium and sit on your butt. Or...just be long the stock like "normal" people.
I always say this: Go do 100 covered call plays and in a year or whatever, get back to me and let me know if you still think they are good plays.
I have probably done 700 CC plays. I still do them. And they still suck.
Eric: How dumb did you feel when you screwed-up your "iClooly Elite Touch Stylus Pen" because you didn't realize the ipad part screwed off the conductive part, and you tried to separate them with a pair of channel locks?
That's because covered calls are just about the worst play in the stock market. Don't take my comment personally, I speak from massive experience, I sell some myself (how about being called on on AXP calls at SIXTY when the stock is 75...?
not sure what you are arguing about. This is a loser company. if you look at the CE peer group performance they should be a 70 dollar stock. High debt, poor strategy, poor management will keep CE undervalued Current CEO is part of the problem, approved all bad decisions of previous CEO as lead director. I sold all my shares when he became CEO. obviously CE board is not ready to make a real change. Employees, shareholders, customers are getting hurt Unless shareholders stand up and push to drive change this will be a mediocre company that short money moves in and out of. Shareholders demand change!
About ready to put you on Ignore sm0.
Remember this from a couple of months ago....
As I said then, most of the stock sold was a retiring insider. Did you dump your shares or not?
Insider sells when in mid-40's to 50 range; market setting new record but CE going down
by sm081969 • Mar 19, 2013 6:17 PM Flag
Insiders are selling at prices below analyst target, suggesting they don't really have confidence in the future of the company. In the last few days, market has been going up but CE lost 12% - probably because insiders are dumping their shares and of course debt is 180% of equity which doesn't help either. It's small company that could be managed a lot better - very poor quality management team and Borad of Directors. I am thinking about dumping my shares just as insiders are doing. Less
yesterday, CE went over 50 and closed at 50 which is technically significant. If it goes to 51, a move to 55 would be very likely. Saw the news of CE trying to sell two small plants - they need to bring down costs, improve margins, and return on capital. Reduce debt and increase dividend is my mantra for CE.
The methanol principally will be used by CE who needs it to replace their current supplier, who sued CE (but lost) to get out of the contract.
Mitsui can value add their frac gas to methanol, can they value add their methanol? More Mitsui/Celanese parterships going where? How far will H.R.1959 go?
it is finally time to aggressively change management. If not change our Rohr. big gain and then all is given back with stock price. this will never change if management change is not a top near term priority. CE will be a nothing stock that can't get above 50 until management talent s addressed
CE needs to continue to: (1) Reduce debt (2) Increase dividend, and (3) Remove unqualified and incompetent managers. CE needs new blood with more aggressive management style. For now, CE needs a catalyst to move it up - stock is stuck at 49 at FPE of under 10 at a time when S&P500 is at 15, at a 50% discount. Some discount is reasonable given highly leveraged balance sheet, but 50% discount is too much. At FPE of 12, stock would be over 62. CEO should give interviews on CNBC or Bloomberg and talk about positive things about the company. As Europe and Asia recovers going into 2014, CE could be well positioned. CE could also retire some more debt. Any good news RIGHT NOW would give a boost and push the stock over 50 and after 2Q13 earning report (CEO must make sure it's damn good and announce another increase in dividend) push it over 60.
I am a current employee of Celanese here in Dallas. We are finally turning the corner. Mark Rohr is providing what has been missing since we were owned by Blackstone and that is leadership and vision. he is slowly kicking out the old regime of mediocre management and installing market focused leaders that are starting to get our business back on track. thanks Mark