I believe UTX will beat big time. Didn't Hayes say the weak dollar and weak China were bad. Well the dollar is stronger and China has stopped going down. That should be good for UTX. Hayes has something to prove because of the HON thing. He will do everything he can to show good numbers. Most important is the Fed is talking tomorrow. These stocks are not trading on earnings but on what the central bankers are doing. Yellen will continue to say what the market wants to hear. No interest rate increase for as far as the eyes can see. The market will like that and stocks will go up including UTX.
If it does not tank today, I am taking more off the table and putting it into the income fund. Have to be guaranteed income at my age. This stock used to be solid under the three preceding CEOs. I wasn't a super-fan of all of them but Hayes ranks 10th behind the other 3. How do you like that math?
A miss will be seen as very negative and will send the stock back into the '90s. Even meeting estimates will send the stock down--the market is expecting a beat since FX has been a tailwind all of Q1. I think it will take an EPS beat of at least 2 cents to just stay where it is. Hitting the estimates won't cut it--options traders are betting against UTX 7 to 1. Could be ugly!
Very disappointing, indeed. Since dividends paid to common shares do not affect EPS or FCF, the only explanation I can come up with for this is that it reflects Hayes' bias for stock buybacks over dividends. Based on the previous buyback, UTC could have raised the dividend by almost 8% without using any more cash than it did in the previous year.. Choosing to raise the dividend only 3.1% allows Hayes to divert the remainder (almost 5%) to his stock buyback program. As a common shareholder I greatly prefer a dividend increase which puts real money in my pocket to a stock buyback that provides no cash and often fails to move the stock price at all (witness last years' $10B buyback that did nothing--the Honeywell drama did far more to boost the stock price than the buyback ever did, and didn't cost shareholders a cent). This move does not bode well for those of us who are looking for significant UTX divided growth in the future.
Do you believe a 3.1% increase?! That is one of the most disgusting things that the BODs and a UTC CEO ever did. They should be ashamed. I was a fan of Hayes up until now. It is a #@$'n insult to the retirees, investors and employees (ESOP holders). Scrooge is running the show. That is pure unadulterated garbage.
airborne, it all depends on why oil prices are going down. If global demand for oil is growing, but supply is growing faster, that is a good thing for many stocks for the reasons you mentioned. It's when we have the unusual situation where worldwide oil demand is flat or shrinking while supplies are growing rapidly that things start going the other way. In that case, dropping oil prices are seen by traders as an indicator of a slowdown in global growth which is bad for business in general, and stock prices go down in anticipation of declining earnings. This is a temporary situation, of course--global demand for oil will eventually continue its long term upward trend, supplies will balance out and the negative correlation between oil and stock prices will go away. Many economists think this process is already happening.
What I do not understand is back in the 70's when we had the oil embargo from the A-robs the price of oil skyrocketed and so did everything else because we make everything using energy and the stocks went down because of it. Now oil is tanking (I love that pun!) and when it does, stocks go down. I see cheap energy translating into cheaper manufacturing costs, more discretionary income for business and civilians. I am clueless (a lot of people say that).
I'm the eternal optimist, Airborne, (Except when I am a pessimist, as I was back in February). IF we crest $110 in the next few months, the real target will be in the 115 -120 neighborhood. We will see.
It seems that no matter what companies do, their stocks go down when the price of oil tanks (good pun!). That's insane because lower energy prices usually means decreasing expenses for major conglomerates. When oil shot up stocks went down. Now oil tanks and stocks go down. Someone explain this to me.
I am also taking money off the table this week before the Q1 release. Results are not impressive for the past 12 months. The HON offer has stimulated some momentum on the stock but I am not sure it can last. On the other hand, if Q1 is solid and dividends announced are above 10% then I will be happy to hold the rest of my shares.
I am like the Hawk waiting up on the tree ,I sold for a nice profit , yes wating for UTX going bye a lower price to jump all over again, good luck everybody.
I took a little bit off only. I am still hoping for 110 this year. HOLD (hopefully will not be left holding the bag)