The Chembio Ebola test is a multiplex I believe initially with Febrile. However, a later release discussed Ebola/Malaria. The field test for DPP Ebola was massive: I believe over 3k people were at first to be tested. That insinuates multiplex and more that just a 2x.
I always thought that CEMI's Ebola effort was really more about malaria than Ebola, and have said so on this board numerous times. Malaria would be a game changer for CEMI. Of course, it's a tricky little protozoan, so success is definitely not assured.
Ah yes, I figured Orasure's political clout with FDA was strong, but last week's announcement from Merck should make Orasure's Ebola test all but obsolete. "Merck’s Ebola Vaccine Found to Be Effective by Expert Panel"
Merck claims that their 4000 patient trial in Africa proved it's effectiveness. I suspect Chembio's Ebola surveillance test, if it truly exists, is the future, and not Orasure's diagnostic test. Just my opinion.
Clearly, he likes to keep information close to the vest. There's been precious little information released in 2015. I'm not exactly sure how much we'll actually get on Thursday. However, if he feels it's advantageous to keep things quiet, I'm on board with that.
Agree to everything you stated. I call EXAS the biggest "CON" in the biomedical space perpetrated by management and institutional investors. Insurance companies and Medicare are paying up to $600 for a test that normally costs $75 for 3 iFOBTs. If the Cologuard was a better test, this would be a great story, but where is the 3rd party published medical evidence? Cologuard is fraught with False positives and False negatives across patient demographics that make it a costly boondogle.
How management convinced a high percentage of institutional investment and continues to burn through $42 million per quarter is an ENRON-like TV mini-series in the making. I suspect that institutions know what is going on and plan on dumping en-mass at some point in the future...likely at the first sign of lower than expected tests ordered. But until then, Institutions are keeping this company highly bouyant and management is cautious on providing guidance too early.
Someone on the board, who owns no shares, assumes a multiple of revenue of 3X is a valuation. It can be close for mature companies. Chembio is not a mature company.
Chembio is more of a technology company than a basic make a test and sell it company. No other technology can do the multiplex that DPP can do and with accuracy.
Funny, EXAS trades for an unbelievable multiple of revenue and that's a great stock to IT but Chembio is only worth 3x?
If you look at the option exercise history, for the most part and to a very high percentage, insiders are exercising options and not selling. Insider purchases are only one measure or their faith, exercising options and keeping those shares in this situation gives me confidence they see long term value appreciation. The one person who has sold, may easily be selling for a specific purpose- buying a home, financing college etc.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Let's assume for a moment that CEMI did meet TRIB's acquisition criteria, which would seem to be the case. There is only one reason, then, which might explain the absence of a deal, and that would be the price. As I've discussed before, these properties go for about 3x forward revenue. That's about $10 for CEMI. We can only guess that $10 was too low for the CEMI BOD (or, perhaps, TRIB is being unrealistic). It therefore stands to reason that Sperzel thinks that CEMI is worth more than $10, perhaps substantially more.
My only question, then, is why neither he nor any other top execs have bought any shares.
Not too much as relates to CEMI. Syph product off to a slow start in US, but they see $10 million market.
Africa HIV sales way down. TRIB management blames lumpiness. However, they can't ID exactly when rebound will occur, which leads me to suspect that they may be losing market share and just not telling anyone yet.
TRIB loaded up on cash for an acquisition, but they can't find a target which meets their requirements. CEMI would seem to meet their requirements, but the asking price is likely too high, and they seemed to indicate as much. So, TRIB is going to sit there with $110 million, paying interest and vastly complicating their accounting for...nothing.
They had some very interesting comments about dealing with the FDA. This sort of reconfirms my view of why LS got the ax. You don't undercut the FDA, and you certainly don't badmouth the FDA, which LS did on a conference call. Part of Sperzel's job has been to repair relations with the FDA, which he has clearly done.
Exas needs revenue growth of well over 1,000 percent to start to deliver shareholder value at $25/share. The market is finite for the current product and hospitals will be reluctant to adopt due to having facilities, personnel and expensive equipment in place for alternative testing. Exas has to hire staff to get people to send in the test (compliance falls on their shoulder, not the Doctors). They do not get paid if the patient doesn't send in their sample.
Expect another secondary. When this secondary was announced the stock dropped $5 (over 15%). It appears to be a house of cards with management taking in high compensation and only $12M in revenue. The margin is pathetic due to the overhead they needed to build up to be able to service revenue growth (growth that is far slower than they/analysts touted). Management likes to pump. That's a sign of a house of cards.
The opportunities are fantastic but 3-5 years out for the next series of products. Will those require the same process of Exas having to be responsible for compliance to get paid?
Exas is a $12 stock with a $25 price tag. The upcoming earnings release is critical to hold on to analysts that are needed to support the price tag.
So...it would make little difference to those holding in a tax advantaged account to take shares in the acquiring company and then sell those shares if desired...or hold.......more options in that way......I have Chembio in both tax advantages and taxable accounts......I would prefer....as long as we are speculating...........1 share of JNJ for each share of Chembio.......not a bad hold for sure.
They are on a different path within the diagnostics arena. Alere could have tried to use DPP for its 4th gen but went a route that broke the contract with Chembio. Also, Alere's big pharma partner is not aligned to Chembio because Chembio uses a competitors product in the DPP HIV and other tests.
Not to be adversarial, but I don't follow anything that you just said. This new management at Alere is on the same path as Chembio. Diagnostic Testing. The new path they took was to divest all their health care management companies that were a drag on the company. The only question that Alere has to ask about Chembio, is "what is the ROI"
Alere didn't sever ties with Chembio. As I read it, they developed a 4th generation HIV test and decided to bring it to market. They left the decision up to Chembio to decide what to do with their HIV product called Clearview STAT-PAK. Also, to my knowledge, Alere is still marketing Chembio's other HIV product. If the 4th Gen test is not performing well, as we are starting to see in some journals, I would say the door remains open.
I also like breaking everything down into dating terms, so here it goes. If you found a highly attractive person and that person politely told you thanks, but no thanks, wouldn't you try again, again, and again?