PTRY currently in proxy fight... could signal true change on the horizon. Potential for sale/lease back of properties to unlock cash. Like SPCHA a very low P/S indicates a potential for a huge move if profitability can be unlocked.
Private equity tried to buy ALCS for ~$14/share but shareholders voted against it... very rare occurrence indeed! Horrible recent quarter but like SPCHA it has strong potential if it gets its act together.
"If you accumulate 100 shares at a time, it will be a pain and rack up commissions and take lots of time."
FYI... this is one reason why I now have an interactive brokers account. Commissions are $1 plus exchange fees. It allows me to actually trade low volume stocks because if my limit order doesn't execute fully I don't get killed by commissions.
"You know, i invested basket of small community banks last year or so but my results about (+-0) huge drag for overall performance. I have divested all, because they quite much lost momentum, i don't know was it looming TARP div increase or what, but i sold them and planing to buy back, when dust has settled down. I will look GRBS closer. "
Interesting - I did the same as a result of scanning my insider purchasing records and for every last one of the ones I invested in, I could kill myself today for having taken short-term profits and selling too soon. All were up, not one was down - even today. Luckily I held and ramped up my holdings of UBMI during the December tax selling.
I've learned that these banks do have/follow a seasonal/cyclical pattern. They get a bump up around this time of year, summer is slow and they sell off, then they pick up again in September/October.
On GRBS - don't buy unless you are prepared to hold a long time - just look at all the zero volume days on the price history table/pages. I bought because I was interested AND a large volume ask was showing. If you accumulate 100 shares at a time, it will be a pain and rack up commissions and take lots of time. I probably would not have purchased (at least now) if the large ask wasn't there.
Could you also comment that tarp increase. Do you hold any banks, which haven't paid that back yet? How they are performing?
"...+If there's no insider purchasing, I really don't care what it is or how good it appears."
I agree, if insiders don't see any value on their stock, they may be right.
"+If you really have an iron stomach, check this one out - I just bought this morning - will probably end out holding for 5 years - GRBS. Teeny tiny bank (I am partial to banks these days that are mispriced)"
You know, i invested basket of small community banks last year or so but my results about (+-0) huge drag for overall performance. I have divested all, because they quite much lost momentum, i don't know was it looming TARP div increase or what, but i sold them and planing to buy back, when dust has settled down. I will look GRBS closer.
"+What else are you invested in? "
Right now i don't have any ideas which i'm overly excited, That's why i'm so eager to hear your ideas. :)
But i hold with stocks like ESCA, RCMT, BRN (disapointing). Also some otc-listed companies like AASL, NXOI.
I still kick myself, because end of last year i did some re-balancing, and i sold EONC about $1, and today it's of course has outperformed my portfolio with wide margin. :)
It seems I've invested here for the same reasons as you.
If you like low P/S stocks here are a few I've been following:
JAKK, ALCS, PTRY, NOR
Any thoughts are appreciated!
Thanks - appreciate it. You are definitely correct - most of the things I invest in are thinly traded/followed and it can cause ulcers at times. However, what I've learned is that I'm usually right, just early to the party. It happened a few times over the past year - my biggest winner (over 100%), I was the only person posting on the board (UBMI) and they ultimately got a buyout early this year.
However, what I will say is that the first thing that leads me to a company/stock is the insider purchasing. From there I slap on the fundamental analysis. But the insider purchasing is always the first filter. If there's no insider purchasing, I really don't care what it is or how good it appears.
If you really have an iron stomach, check this one out - I just bought this morning - will probably end out holding for 5 years - GRBS. Teeny tiny bank (I am partial to banks these days that are mispriced) - good insider purchasing record, CEO just bought shares last month, and financials look really good. But, because of the low float, sometimes there might not be a trade for a week or two at a time!
What else are you invested in? I've found that folks I run into on the boards I participate on generally have similar likes/dislikes when it comes to where they put their money.
I really like your ideas, when it seems that you are clearly playing a lone hand. These ideas are not too crowded.
I agree, SPCH has tremendous potential. I keep looking this one too, meanwhile i wait to get more cash.
"FINL is trading with a 19 PE and P/S of 0.8. If we value SPCH with a 19 PE with 4% net margin, that's about $4/share"
I meant to type a little more, but space ran out.
But my final point again comes back to P/S - with SPCH currently at 0.04...obviously if that is a more normal number, the shares would be valued many times higher. Even in distressed retail names, I rarely see P/S below 0.15 to 0.20. At 0.04, it is extremely compelling.
1. Similar to ULBI, management holds a large stake and is buying shares. Above $2.50 in the past there's been some sellers, but below $1.75 the past few years they've been buyers.
2. Earnings for this past quarter. Here is a retailer that turned in a good/solid profitable quarter. That says something important. While most other retailers have had a downright awful holiday quarter, SPCH turned in profits - and that was during an ongoing turnaround.
3. They have a good website/system. I ordered something online a couple weeks ago (after already owning shares). The price for what I purchased was a good 30% to 40% below what the price was on Amazon and the shipping was free. The website was very good, the selection was very good the ordering process was very good, obviously the price was great, it shipped out quickly, and what I ordered was exactly what I wanted, it fit well, and everything was excellent from start to finish. Couldn't be happier.
4. I think the shares are very undervalued for what the financials show. Price/sales is 0.04 - the company is being valued as if it's going out of business. I remember a few years ago when I invested in Finish Line (FINL) it was valued in a similar way. Longer term Finish Line shares have soared - I think the same is possible here. However, while I was too fast to sell my FINL shares, that won't be the case here.
Like ULBI this is another turnaround play. The big difference is that SPCH has the sales and they really just need to tighten things up to reduce costs and increase margins. With price/sales so ridiculously low, even very small full year earnings will move the shares much higher. How difficult would it be for SPCH to have net margins of just 1%? That would translate to EPS of about 5 cents/share. I think SPCH should be able to have net margins comparable to FINL, which is just over 4%. FINL is trading with a 19 PE and P/S of 0.8. If we value SPCH with a 19 PE with 4% net margin, that's about $4/share.
For those who do not believe that painting the tape is a real thing, have a look at the only trade of the day thus far:
$1.15 ... 1 ... NDD ... 09:37:37
If you don't understand how to read that, it says that someone sold 1 single share for $1.15 this morning.
You think they were scared that the bottom would fall out of the stock and they might lose their $1.15? Or maybe they just want the last trade to print at $1.15 down from $1.16?
What it means is that this person:
1. Is short and is trying to make you believe the stock wants to go lower
2. Someone who wants to buy shares at a lower price, tries to prime the pump and make you sell to him at a lower price
Either way, the only reason somebody would sell one single share (when the bid is sitting there at the same price) is that the person is afraid the shares will move higher and not lower - having seen some trades yesterday at $1.18 - he has good reason to be afraid, because when the shares move higher, they are going back to $1.75.
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