Pfizer Inc. Message Board

Without my many inheritances from dead relatives, I never could have satisfied my Trader Joe's chocolate covered orange stick addiction.

Free funeral food is another reason why I like it so much when my relatives die, although of course gorging on grub takes second place to the inheritances.

The pathetic lifeless loser exists to eat.

My fatso brother in law keeps shoveling it in. At Mike's service, he ate like a P*I*G PIG!

Viagra was only a $2B drug at its peak and a few extra sales at generic rates wouldn't add more than $50M to $100M in revenues for a 457B company. We are talking about a tiny fraction of 1% of PFE's revenues. The news isn't worth more than a nickel a share on the stock - if that. Sorry.

"prior results do not reflect future action" ... investors buy stocks based on future expectations .... fact is
the entire pharma industry has been turning itself inside out ... and nobody can know with any certainty
what the landscape will look like in a few years , other than it will be much different .... then add in the
flavoring from the political landscape ...

Read was skirting the truth because the fact is that the euro traded in a rather narrow range in Q1-13 - between about $1.27 and $1.33. It was down only slightly for the quarter - it did not plunge. What was very weak was the yen and indeed PFE does a reasonable amount of business in Japan. Still, yen weakness in the overall scheme of things for a company Pfizer's size wouldn't have meant all that much.

Value Line shows four-year projections and for the year 2017, they are projecting Pfizer revenues of just 60 billion - only about 4% greater than 2013 projections. It's mighty tough to get very excited about such palty growth but that's about all that can reasonably be expected given European austerity and the fact that PFE has such little pricing flexibility.

Earnings per share gains from stock buybacks will also be bearing less fruit with buybacks in the $28 to $30 area whereas not so long ago the buybacks were being done in the very low 20's.

I see little reason why this stock should sell for much more than its current 13 PE. As a popular advertisement in the '80's asked, "where's the beef?"

Unlike PFE and MRK which bought quality pharmas near their lows at the bottom of the 2008/2009 crash, BMY was low on cash and could do little to offset its patent expiration cliff. As a result, they continue to pay the price earnings-wise. After seeing earnings peak at $2.28 a share in 2011 just prior to a slew of major patent expirations, here is the miserable 2012-2015 situation with respect to earnings per share:

$2.28 in 2011 (actual)
$1.99 in 2012 (actual)
$1.81 in 2013 (consensus))
$2.15 in 2014 (consensus)
$2.02 in 2015 (consensus)

Do investors look at earnings projections any more? Is anyone but me seeing this? Or are they so taken in with the likes of Cramer and want to be "cool" by saying that they own Bristol MARS? Does anyone but me see that at the current $40.02 stock price, the stock with its pedestrian 3.5% dividend sells at virtually TWENTY times estimes 2015 earnings? I mean isn't that a wee bit RICH for such miserable expected earnings performance even out to the end of 2015?

At the other end of the valuation spectrum is BIDU, the dominant search engine in China whose biggest competitor is just 1/7 BIDU's size. With BIDU currently at $87.65 (it was $166 two years ago), here is its 2011-2015 earnings per share situation:

$3.02 in 2011 (actual)
$4.79 in 2012 (actual)
$5.03 in 2013 (consensus)
$6.25 in 2014 (consensus)
$8.05 in 2015 (consensus)\

In 2011, BIDU's $3.02 in earnings were just 33% above those of BMY. Nut in 2015, BIDU's earnings are expected to be virtually QUADRUPLE those of BMY. But yet BIDU currently sells for less than 11 times estimated 2015 results while BIDU sports a 19.8 multiple relative to 2015 expectations.

Is it any surprise that I am foregoing the right to say that I am an owner in Bristol MARS? I'd much rather own one of the fastest-growing companies its size in the world with a PE with respect to 2015 that is less than HALF its normal growth rate of about 25% per year.

No dividend. Pfizer will be filing for bankruptcy tomorrow.

Thanks

NDA acceptance within 2 weeks =$$$$$$$$$

not sure how much lower pfe will go , unless we get an across the board whack to the
markets ... i don't think that the upside is all that close at hand , so there should be
ample time to wade in , or accumulate more with PFE ...

BMY didn't pay much ... that one could be a real leader going forward ... also BMY had a terrific run up in the
past year ... not sure it's in the same bucket ..
i also don't rule out MRK and PFE , but their pipes seem to be a bit behind the curve ..
it's only a matter of time , for the top 5 or 6 pharma's to really ignite ... right now , they are all in the middle
of one of the biggest transistions that any sector has seen ... bumps in the road are to be expected , so
enjoy the divs and sleep well ....

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