I ain't been gone...just busy blowing my short profits on #$%$, coke, and private jet to Vegas. Im ahead by $15 on a lot of shares.
Responses to the longs and news update.
- No way GME gets bought out when their primary business line just suffered 20% decline in sales. Margins getting squeezed and no one likes retailers much these days.
- I ain't just hoping and I do admit I am totally way over obsessed with this. But, I am posting to get the word out so that people will continue to abandon this turd.
- Sony - Did everyone see the nice news that 50% of the PS4 buyers are getting PS Plus? Since that includes free games and incredibly cheap old games, then I figure all those customers are pretty much done with GME forever.
- ATVI - Of course they are talking up their new AAA content and I am sure they will sell a lot of it. But, they are also fired up about their three new FTP which GME wont sell a bit of. Of course it helps that their retail sales fell 20% during the quarter and the year.
- I dont believe the "this is just like any other console transition" These consoles aren't that different but the rest of the world is. DLC, FTP, Disk-less consoles, Steam, Hugely expensive AAA, mobile, Apple, Amazon, etc. - none of these were around the last time we had a console transition.
I got to go...I got a fine bottle of 2010 Husic Cabernet waiting for me and Trixie.....have fun boys....
I think you, like many others, feel that hoping really hard is actually going to affect the stock. Gamers aren't checking in here to see what you've written before visiting their local GameStop. You think buying games for new systems is going to end?
I'm starting to picture the largest wall of your room, with a whole bunch of stuff pinned to it, and lots of different colors of yarn tacked up, "connecting" all kinds of stuff together.
Assuming a $50 per share take-out gets a pro forma valuation of about $5.1 bn netting cash. $900 million of EBITDA levered 2.5x at 6% = $2.25 bn of debt and annual interest expense of about $135 mm. That leaves about $2.85 bn of Pro forma equity behind the debt receiving annual free cash flow of about $400 million for 14% FCF yield to the equity. This business has been stable for years, even in a world of high speed internet connections. If it remains so (and it should given we are at the start of a long console cycle), that's a nice potential return for a private equity firm.
well, just heard abt. Zachs downgrade, it's red now, maybe because of the sell rating, does anyone think this stock is a hold, just don't know whether to hold or sell, peaked into our game stock store here and there were some customers but didn't really help me to know whether to wait for a higher sell point
exactly@ new games systems always have the initial punch in sales and then peak 2-3 years out when the the price drops and more games are available. where the hell has mojo been
Sentiment: Strong Buy
People are going to wait and see if Titanfall is a decent game before they get it. I suspect Titanfall will only get 30% or less of a typical Call of Duty's sales. So in that respect, I don't think Gamestop will be selling a lot of Titanfall copies. Also, Planetside 2 is going to be a big game on PS4 but it will be a free-to-play game, probably download only.
This year will probably be a bad year for Gamestop's business, but I think it will pick up greatly afterwards. There's no one else who is trading used games at their level. And core gamers who buy PS4/Xbone are not going to abandon their consoles for a mom-friendly candy game on their phone.
Low preorders for Titanfall makes sense since it's a brand new IP from a brand new company, even if the designers are veterans. Parkour game + robots is a unique and thus risky game concept.
I don't think you understand video games. You just see games as a commodity like beef or steel, it seems. The 99 cent games you can get on an phone or tablet are completely different than what you can play on a $400-500 console. The control scheme is different, the demographic is different. Women and grandparents are playing Candy Crush on phones, not the core gamers who want to play 64-2000 player cutting-edge sci-fi shooters.
You're still assuming that the Xbone's failure is bad news for Gamestop. Doesn't make sense. The Xbone is more expensive and yet inferior to the PS4 as a gaming machine. Of course it will do poorly. This is good news for PS4 though.
Wii U is dead on arrival and the Wii is extremely old. It still outputs 640x480 resolution when 4K TVs are waiting for 3840 × 2160!
In regards to your other posts, you're thinking too short term. Launch consoles never have a good lineup of games. The PS4 has almost nothing to play besides Battlefield 4 and Tomb Raider. It takes 1-2 years at least before a new gen of consoles really picks up steam. It's always been like this.
Its official, the launch party is over and now the real hangover is going to kick in...VGChartz reporting the following ugly numbers in US.
Microsoft Total Console Sales (X360+X1) in US dropped from 340K last year to 244K this year. Down 28%
Sony - Total Console Sales P3+P4 up from 216K to 232K. Up 7%
Nintento - Total Console Sales (Wii+WiiU). Down 181K to 79K. Down a shocking 56%
Total Console sales down 25% from one year ago.
So all the launch parties are over. The pent-up demand is satisfied. The inventory is piling up.
And here we are....game sales down, pipeline of new games looks bleak, industry layoffs and investment looks terrible, and worst of all, people aren't buying the hardware which means no one will write the software.
Lack of content - Preorders for games are way down. Two games in Jan Feb this year are getting pre-orders. Last year same time - 9 games. Consumers are sitting on their hands because there is not much to get excited about.
Lack of content - Game sales are down, even with new consoles.
Lack of content - Big dev shops are laying people off as console sales decline. They are not investing in new content. So long term getting even bleaker. Read the news on these guys and see if you agree....Disney, Nintendo, Square Enix, EA, Avalanche Studio, TakeTwo....
"Lack of content, consumers who can buy games for a buck or two on mobile appears to be the biggest problem."
Lack of content would be a problem if the consoles weren't brand-new. They are, and it's not.
People buying mobile games for 99¢ are not a problem because they're not deciding between $50-$60 dollar games and $1 games.... they're buying both.
I am seriously considering increasing short position again.
- VGChartz showing retail sales down for month of January.
- Feb looks bleak because last year there were lots of cool games coming out, but this year none until Titanfall. Pre-order volume is approximately half of last year.
- Game developers in crisis. Check out stories from Square Enix, EA, Avalanche Studio, TakeTwo. Number of games in the pipeline continues to really plummet.
- Apple TV continues to lurk. When it comes out, it will crush the casual gaming console market. I know people are going to say "That rumor has been out there for a long time and it hasnt happened." Yes, but delay doesnt mean denial.
I have to admit that its odd....Digital downloading of AAA games is apparently not GME's biggest problem. Lack of content, consumers who can buy games for a buck or two on mobile appears to be the biggest problem.
Will oversell for months. Big drop coming. Like when EA went to 13. Sorry but GME is not a place to be even with all the buybacks. Maybe September 2014 will turn positive.
Xbone not doing well is a problem for Microsoft, not necessarily for Sony or Gamestop. PS4 price is still $450 or so on Ebay. If the people who don't buy an Xbone don't go over to the PS4, then you have a point.
Xbone is not able to match the PS4 performance in BF4 and Tomb Raider, so it makes sense people don't want to buy a $100 more expensive system than the PS4, when they get less in return
Titanfall is a brand new IP. It's developers have a good track record but I don't think pre-orders can be compared to existing franchises.
The new consoles are 8 years ahead of the old tech, but your'e judging them just 3 months after they release. No one who played Battlefield 3 on PS3 thinks Battlefield 4 PS4 is "not much different". Gameplay is similar, of course, but the visual upgrade is immense.
I doubt Apple will be a direct competitor to Sony/Microsoft. If you look at XBL/PSN's games, they are quite different than anything you'd find on the Apple store. Apple has had gaming desktop computers for a while, but they aren't even remotely popular. The extreme cost is one problem. And then few companies will develop for the Mac OS. Most Mac gamers end up installing Windows to their Macs through bootcamp just to play PC games.
The Nintendo Wii U is a big failure, but can't be compared to Xbone/PS4. The price is too high due to the expensive Game Pad that no one cares about. The system specs are WAY behind the level of the PS4. In some cases, the Wii U is just a step ahead of Xbox 360/PS3.. 8 year old systems. Nintendo has been a generation behind everyone else. It was fine with the Wii since the Wiimote lured in all the casuals.
The new gen of consoles has been out for a while now, and I don't think many people are buying Battlefield 4 or other big games (Assassin's Creed 4, Killzone Shadow Fall, Dead Rising 3, etc) digitally.
All this being said, perhaps large scale, large file size games are not where all the sales are at anyway. Personally I wouldn't buy a PS4 or XBONE so I can play a casual game that is 500 megs or so, like Tetris or Angry Birds. It doesn't make sense. If I have a 1080p HDTV, I expect to play 1080p games that really wow me.
- New rumors of the Apple TV box. aka "The GME Killer"
- Actual news of the Amazon console. aka "Slow death cancer for GME."
- EA reports earnings and its all about digital. Physical games declined 28% year on year. Ouch, that really hurts....
- Xbones and PS4s are fully in stock almost everywhere. Xbone inventory surely piling up. Next step is price and margin cuts. What if people dont really want these after all. Its not like they loved the last Nintendo box. Even if they do, the next gen is all about download.
- Speaking of download - anyone catching the latest installments of Call of Duty? Its all DLC. Sorry GME but no product for you.....