hi sean, thanks for the kind words....
oclr has actually given us both our first positive energy since we got rid of that self-serving loser CEO. I like the new direction for the first time since early avnx days, when i never took mega-profits and rode it into oblivion.
I still don't think its appropriate, but I understand how it can get with the feeding frenzy. Anyway, glad to hear you guys made some money, especially my friend Ciel, who has been a long time bag holder like myself
Sorry sean, but with all due respect it is appropriate because we both own OCLR and have for many years.I just sold my FCEL to buy more OCLR. FCEL board right now has been over taken by irrational pumpers, bashers ,day traders etc and any real posts get drowned out. It is a feeding frenzy. Wish we had a little more here.
I am still waiting until earnings report, IMO FCEL will retrace from here. too many chasing flavor of the day, soon will move on to next flavor. I will buy then.
Stock has hit $3:02. I would love to see it go to $8:00. But at this point doesn't look like that is happening. It will get moment, if it crosses $4:00
amelanchere, nice positive day in front of Monday ER is a very good thing for FCEL.
Many poeple want to own this stock, and believe in the technology as they should.
There will be incredible catalysts for the group, being PLUG, BLDP and FCEL.
Look at PLUG today, I mean, it's price is ridiculous! From 0.12cts just one year ago! How'd I miss that one? lol too buried in oclr is the reason.
Anyway, it could be off to the races again next week
maybe you want to rethink being on the sidelines after seeing PLUG over $8.00 today. FCEL still has the most % appreciation left in it, as It needs to catch up to the pps of BLDP and PLUG and will in time.
Actually Oclaro has roughly 108 million shares, and according to management it might reach break even by the end of the calendar year but only in EBITDA terms and if sales grow to $110M per quarter... By the end of the calendar year, because of continued cash drain the tangible book value will have declined to about $1.5/ sh....
I don't see any of the major tech houses that sold off or divested their optical units over a decade ago wanting them back HP/Agilent(Avago), IBM (JDSU), Intel(Emcore) Hitachi (Opnext), etc). The only interest remaining for any of these big R&D houses still engaged in optics would be in discovering disruptive, next generation solutions that will replace transceivers and modules or that which enables optical circuits on PCBs. jmo.
How about Hitachi? They have been upping their stake... Maybe there is an opportunity for vertical integration and differentiation...
The InP is valuable and the patents would make a good war chest to help fend off any infringement dust ups, and its true that Oclaro and its predecessors have spend $$$BBB$$$ in R&D. But for all of that, there's little here that Finisar and JDSU could really use. A slight chance FNSR would be interested in the InP if u2t's new modulator doesn't pan out, but if the chances for that was likely, I doubt FNSR would have bought them in the first place).
Hard to see who else wants to dally around in such a difficult sector where the 12%-15% annual pricing haircut keeps profit margins near zero. If Neophotonics wants to play in the big leagues, maybe something from that direction, but they can do nothing more than issue more shares and swap out. Oplink is pursuing products outside of optics...so they have little enthusiasm for expansion. Come up with a bona fide buyer and make the case on who will benefit from buying Oclaro and why?
Your minimum price is close enough. A profitable company (before the end of this calendar year) with greater than $400 million in sales and roughly 100 million shares worth 1.6 to 1.8 times sales yields your $6.00/share (back of the napkin calculations). Factor in cash in the bank, a customer list that is excellent, then I could easily see $8.00/share.
Many shareholders will lose money at $8.00 per share but the reality is that this company is for sale. Alain disagreed and he is no longer with the company. Alain spent many millions of dollars on R&D and we will be lucky to get back a modest portion of the amount.
Current management is incentivized to stay through the second quarter. Personally I would like to see the company wait until the fourth quarter to announce the sale. I believe the price per share by November will be close to $8.00 per share.
They outsource manufactoring in Thailand for the optic sector. Whoever it wins in the field, OCLR FNSR or anyone else, Fabrinet makes money manufactoring for them. Very good chance to double from where it is now, Still a Cheap stock!
Sentiment: Strong Buy