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Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

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  • Reply to

    Strong run up into earnings this week

    by looking_fortrends Jan 24, 2015 11:59 AM

    IMO - earnings will come in around $4.60 rev around 8.12B they will low ball guidance and stock will drop back down on Friday after running up during the week. I believe this stock is manipulated and management is in bed with the shorts. I would love to see them announce a dividend instead of stock buyback. GLTL it will be an interesting week.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Deck IMHO should run up strong into earnings. Shorts will cover and options have expired. Also, there has been NO bad news released...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Options options options..earnings..

    by bullrunning2day Jan 23, 2015 11:39 AM

    You are at least telling both sides here.
    My problem with DECK is under what condition does it go to $120? I just see too many things that could sabotage it going over $100 soon. Let us say earning ARE great then there is poor guidance that could ,make it fall, It could move up a bit on earnings then fall AFTER the news. With this a small miss could make it crash. Bad guidance could make it go down too. It is real hard to see a fast recovery of $12-$15 points. If it MEETS estimates we could see it under $70.
    I think you are right it could fall to present a better entry but it would mean holding the stock several months for a chance of profit. Who has more and more new money to double down? With unlimited money it works but few have it.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Options options options..earnings..

    by bullrunning2day Jan 23, 2015 11:39 AM

    I love your logic - if we went by this, then explain last Q and last year at this time. No warnings and yet poor guidance led to sell offs over 10% each time. While those were buying opportunities, it is hard for LT investors to swallow. Unless you conceive the big boys sold 80s for today on Monday morning and then sold off their shares, I call BS. Additionally, the 2-3x spike in volume on Tuesday with the midnight PR for a new COO just smells awful - nobody releases good news at midnight just like your boss does not call you at 2am to tell you how great of a job you are doing.

    I find it eerie that today Sam Poser said he is bullish on DECK, but then went on to cut his estimates by just over 1% to 4.77. Looking at this, I would expect DECK to come in around 4.85-5.00. I am waiting for 75 or under to buy more calls prior to the ER; if it does not get there, then I will simply wait for a post ER drop to initiate a new position. It all comes down to guidance.

    This stock can only be played through buying on dips and selling at any possible chance you have as it is the epitome of a rollercoaster. LT investors have been the bagholders as this has moved nowhere over the last year, even if you bought on dips.

  • Reply to

    Two reasons not to fear-

    by benshometownflooring Jan 22, 2015 1:02 PM

    jim, I appreciate your genuine input. ...hard to find on most boards. Good luck.

  • Options options options..earnings.. sell down so the options dont pay off. then run up before earnings.. There was NOT any warnings...so should be good..

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Value Trap

    by spittinimage6 Oct 24, 2014 4:11 PM

    Meanwhile Martinez and his merry cast of managers continue to collect inflated salaries at the expense of shareholders. For his next trick, in the Q4 earnings release, he will lower guidance and blame weather for lackluster sales.

  • Reply to

    Trucks should be backed up....this makes no sense

    by uggs8788 Oct 24, 2014 11:49 AM

    Told you.

  • Reply to

    Dec. 21, 2010-85.07/share close

    by uggs8788 Dec 13, 2014 9:39 AM

    Idiot.

  • Reply to

    Two reasons not to fear-

    by benshometownflooring Jan 22, 2015 1:02 PM

    Analysts are paid to provide an opinion to clients that fits the desired market narrative, not find the information to form a narrative. Think of them as intel analysts prior to the Iraq War - they pick and choose info to fit the desired outcome and then ignore or discredit that which does not.

    Volume tells the story - look at the last 6 months. You only see the level we saw Tuesday twice - at ERs. So where is the story behind the sudden spike? It did not drop after the announcement if a fund or funds had news prior to the actual PR, which seems very likely as they dumped.

    The earnings release date along with a downgrade and then the very late COO announcement were the only pieces of news on Tuesday.

    On a positive note, we have not seen insiders dumping - last Q we did see it in the mid-90s. If it does go to 75, I will add some more calls; otherwise I will prep some puts as the ER is about to come off as insurance. Also, Zappos continues to have UGGS as 50% of its best selling women's shoes and shoe products and has consistently had its products in the 50-70% range since Oct.

  • Reply to

    Two reasons not to fear-

    by benshometownflooring Jan 22, 2015 1:02 PM

    NO chance they are just not that savvy? There certainly seems to be a huge difference of opinion how good the quarter was this time. I wonder why analysts are not jumping all over the same issues you are making?
    Seems like all analysts would all have the same information instead of being all over the map. Most are still positive on DECK but they were also positive at $99. So were most here. I agree options expiration can't be a real issue here. I am not sure what to think about the earning release dates. Hard to see a conspiracy there. The drop right before a midnight announcement seems suspect but there was little additional drop after the announcement. Hum.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Two reasons not to fear-

    by benshometownflooring Jan 22, 2015 1:02 PM

    There is a drastic difference between unfounded volatility and unscrupulous behavior. No way it is a coincidence that the stock tanks as they finally release a statement for the ER and announce a new COO way after hours without actually announcing the previous guy's retirement (they noted it in April with no date). Sorry, but anytime we have a midnight press release it is not for good news. One can easily assess that someone very likely leaked it early thus the high volume sell off - it more than doubled in volume and was down 5% before a downgrade even came into play. BTW, the ER date was not listed on their website; Nasdaq had it for February, Estimize for Mar, and only Yahoo Finance had the right date. I had to email IR to confirm prior to their PR. I foresee this not being the best of reports based on the shady pre-moves - this stinks of LULU's June report.

    Options expiration on this one has little to do with it unless you figure big boys sold 80s for this Friday. $7 or 20% in a week comes about when they have news or ERs, not when nothing comes out. Don't fool yourself into thinking "this just happens." Horse pucky. This also smells of their ER at this time last year when the stock shed $13 after the ER. TIme to buy puts for protection.

  • Reply to

    What happened in 2012?

    by sthec Jan 22, 2015 7:45 AM

    I was teaching at a Big 10 school during that time and what I saw was a combination of three issues that led me to short the company through puts over that time.

    1. The unusually warm fall/winter of 2011-2012; when snow did come, it melted immediately or ended as rain and thus the temps kept UGGS from their main utility of warmth in dryer climates or frozen ice/snow.

    2. Sheepskin prices took off and the company lacked any hedging capabilities to counter this.

    3. Style change in women's fashion - riding boot took off and I literally went from seeing half the girls in class wear UGGS to 1-2 (180 student lecture hall with 65% girls) wearing them. But the riding boot and the hunter rain boots were all over the place due to #1.

    All these combined caught management with a multitude of issues - shrinking margins from costs as well as the ballooned inventory that then had to be sold by retailers at a discount; additionally, orders for the next year depend on the previous year and thus UGGS saw cuts on the 2012-2013 orders. All of this led to a collapse from near the 120s to the low 30s in the fall of 2013.

    What I see now worries me a bit, but not too much. I think they will come in with earnings near 4.75-5.00/share, but guidance is the thing - bottom line is they suck at giving guidance and sandbag it every Q. I am concerned that we had a $7+ drop with news that appeared to come out after hours which makes me wonder who was alerted to the changes ahead of time. COO retirement was announced in April with no date, and the change here with no real announcement until after the fact is a bit worriesome as well.

    Lastly, my final concern is today's trading - down on a massive up DOW day...not uncommon with deck, but somewhat disconcerting. So, with calls sold for 30 Jan last week on my shares, some calls bought for Mar, I am likely going to further hedge with either long-term calls next week or some puts just before earnings in case we do see a collapse.

  • Reply to

    14x Forward EPS

    by teamonfuego Jan 21, 2015 12:59 PM

    "third Quarter Earnings Announcement Expected: DECK has confirmed that earnings will be announced 01/29/2015. With 22 analysts covering DECK, the consensus EPS estimate is $4.53, and the high and low estimates are $4.83 and $4.45, respectively.
    Expected Timing: After close"

    If you take away their UGG's division there's mutton left.

  • Even a rookie knows, this is a STRONG BUY without a doubt.
    Let's celebrate. Target=86-90 by JAN 30 or money back!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Two reasons not to fear-

    by benshometownflooring Jan 22, 2015 1:02 PM

    You are right mede

  • Only way to play this dog with fleas. :) Put in the spread when it hit bottom.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Deck options - Jan 30 Call -- 79.00 bid 3.70 -0.46 ask 3.40 3.90

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Last quarter was VERY solid by all accounts, yet the stock got punished. Unfounded volatility is simply the way this stock rolls. If the ER is solid again, which there is NO real evidence against, two quarters worth of pressure will be pushing value upwards. Secondly, Options expiration can come into play with any stock. But when you are dealing with this heavily shorted company, a seven dollar drop in a day or 20% in a week is just run of the mill stock bullying. It just happens. just wait and see what happens next week. -return to the 90's I'm betting.

  • earnings for Deck is coming out soon. This stock is all over the place. I buy on weakness. IMHO it could really shoot up 15pts by earnings...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

DECK
78.33-0.11(-0.14%)Jan 23 4:01 PMEST

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