BTW, interesting how DECK was hit due to Finish Line and Footlocker; nke was not too bad as the previous two show shoes are selling, but buyers are waiting for discounts and thus the margin pressure. This has actually been my norm for running shoes - I always wait until Finish Line puts shoes on clearance and buy a 2 for 1 - not going to pay $150 when I can pay $60-80 for the previous year's leftover model and buy 3-4 pairs at a time for a year's worth of inventory. DECK is not going to see this - sales are too hot right now and they finally have inventory under control after the burn of 2011 when they were just destroyed. Plus weather is staying cold - seeing $5/share for this next ER, but as usual, guidance remains the issue.
Thanks - I am sitting on 600 shares - my last 12 weeks have had covered calls all expire worthless, with the average about .50-.60/week in profits. Some weeks as high as 1.30, some as low as .15.
I do however get a little tired of the management sandbagging guidance and that is my fear this Q; however, I see them having about $5 EPS and about 850 mil in revs. I will keep selling my CCs - likely look at the 98 or 99 this week for a small bit of change. Every little bit reduces my long-term mortgage.
But at the same time, I don't want to get too pumped up about the possibility of a big DECK beat - I took a hit on this winter ER last year on some calls as I was too bullish as was the overall community - the ER was great, but guidance stunk. My big issue with management has been the constant sandbagging of guidance which is just irritating to no end. I fully expect this winter Q to be near $5 with about $850 mil in revs. However, I could see them playing the same game as least year in cutting spring/summer guidance and suddenly seeing us move back into the 80s only to then rebound back to the 90s as usual. However, maybe they surprise...
Jimmach: Many thanks for the view from S. Korea. Very interesting.
I agree that Zappos sales look unusually strong.
Read some extremely enthusiastic reviews of HOKAs today, too -- in Zappos. Lots of revenue will be coming from that stream.
As you can guess, I am a longtime long, and I strongly view my strategy as the way to make big money in in this company. It's a great company, and patience will win out.
Best for the holidays!
I am in South Korea and as the temps finally fell into the 10s and 20s this week I am seeing some pairs show up; however, the import tariffs are quite high for ROK citizens as the shoes sell at about a 30-40% markup here and knock-offs have a bit more leeway here. However, still seeing them in style and have also been monitoring Zappos where Uggs remains in the top 21 of 28 women's shoes best sellers, which I really don't remember seeing last year - I think it was closer to 12-15 of 28, so I am also assuming this will continue to move.
However, my strategy is a bit different as I sell weekly covered calls - my 99s for .80 expired dead today as the calls I have sold over the last 11 weeks have done similar. Will look to sell the 98 this coming week, even if for only .20 as it remains unlikely to rebound on a short week, but I will relook it on Monday (Tuesday morning for me)
I simply want to report that the data I use to monitor UGG sales are all the more impressive now than when I last mentioned the subject on this message board. I will mention, in particular, that as of a few minutes ago, UGG styles held the number 1, 4, 7, and 10 spots for the best-selling footwear for all catégories combined (men, women, and children) at Amazon. An astonishing number of other styles also have very high sales ranks.
I have followed DECK sales for many years, and have never seen such sales volume as I am seeing this year. If my indications are correct, this quarter will blow away the company and analyst sales and earnings estimates. So, barring a huge and broad market downturn, I expect DECK stock to enjoy a very large gain during the next two months.
I would appreciate any acecdotal évidence about sales that anyone can provide. It would be a lot more useful than garbage about Jim Cramer and the brilliant CEO Angel Martinez, who has guided DECK to such amazing success during the past nearly ten years.
We can;t even rally decently when the stock market goes up 420 points in a day and interest rates pop higher. We have a management that is literally #$%$. Angel MArtinez goes abd gets the board to authorize a 300M stock buyback when the company faces warm weather, rising sheepskin costs to record prices, and low interest rates making the stock fall due to other dividend stocks providing safer income....but then when everything turned back in our favor(3 years of sheepskin declines in 2013, 2014, 2015 and cold weather significantly early) and the company is flush with cash(expected 400M on hand in a couple months...no buyback.
He finally became smart enough to get the board to authorize an increase in the credit facility...but for two years with the stock sitting at 60-88, he has not bought back a single share. Just a real stupid POS managing this company and its the reason any error is perceived as huge mismanagement....because the way this company is managed, its almost as if Angel likes to hold onto a mountain of shares for years as he ages(now 61) and watch other companies just completely outperform his(despite Deckers having the most popular product for the 3rd holiday in a row).
It's actually very funny. This guy "works so hard" and his shares do nothing over 4+ years(actually down after inflation)....makes you wonder what is it all for in the end.
do we have to wait till they level the quarters out more or is 1.8 bil revenue enough to get someone interested, maybe one of the sneaker outfits would like the growth DECK would bring.
Happy Holidays to the longs!
Opportunity for buyback was Tuesday at the close...may drop down there again, but looks to have regained traction. Sold the 99 weeklies on Monday for .80...figured it had no traction to 100.
I did the same thing Mark, and feel great about it. There have been a few people on this board I am thankful to for articulating this stock's patterns. Parked my money in $BGCP in the meantime and made a quick return today. Will be looking for re-entry points
Just has to happen. Interest rate is the likely reason for this havoc on the stock. But stock still not being priced in for full year 2014 and 2015 EPS and with interest rate at this level, stock should close the year at 101-103 to price it in.
50 cents a quarter and start making the shorts pay.
Not holding my breath. Learn why there is no point in rushing to invest. Inept management...who does not give a $$$$ about long term investors and compensating them for their patience. This company has cash and enough room with credit facility that they can start paying their shareholders...nope. Just keeps GIVING THEMSELVES options and diluting OUR ownership....so they get compensated with free money(as in shares) despite the stock and income doing nothing performance wise for over 4 years now. Pathetic.