....continued from previous post......................as they want them to. Figuring what the traders want the reports to come out as is difficult since a good report is likely to stimulate interest rate hikes sooner rather than later and that would not be a positive, and a bad report is not likely to help since there is no way interest rates can go lower. I therefore believe that the economic reports this week will not help the bulls.
It is possible though, and perhaps even likely, that the bulls will be able to generate some buying at the beginning of the week, following up on the small gains the bulls were able to generate on Friday. The bulls are likely to use whatever ammunition is available and the only ammunition I believe they have available was the prevention of a sell signal on the weekly chart being given on Friday, as well as the successful retest of the previous low daily close with Friday's green close. Simply stated, I believe the indexes will end up going up on Monday and Tuesday but then likely begin to fail when the big economic reports come out on Thursday and Friday.
Also keep in mind that the end of the month is on Tuesday and where the indexes close out the month is important since they are all having negative reversal months and from levels of important resistance. As such, I believe the bulls will try to generate enough buying a
First of all, let me state that I am a chart reader and not an analyst, and that means I react to what the traders do and adjust my probability ratings on the trade. In addition, due to the fact that I do not have a crystal ball, I do "cover my behind" with diversification (anywhere from 6-10 stocks), risk/reward ratios of at least 4-1 on each trade (meaning I can be wrong as much as 80% of them time and still break even or make a small profit), and pinpointing my entry points where my risk is always small and controlled.
Simply speaking, I am not a seer, just an investor looking to "make more money than I lose" in a market that is full of sharks that are ready to eat all the little people that are trying to fundamentally evaluate a stock in order to make a profit.
On a more specific way, the reason for the rally today has a lot to do with the rally in the indexes, which I did see coming when I did the chart evaluation on them this weekend. The rally has "dragged" a lot of stocks up, including OSK. Nonetheless, the bulls in OSK have not yet accomplished anything of consequence. In fact, I shorted additional shares today at 48.93.
Nonetheless, FYI, below is the comment on the indexes I made to my subscribers on Saturday:
I have evaluated the index charts and I have nothing much to add to what I said on Friday. All the indexes had a strong spike down week and more importantly from levels of importance, meaning that the bulls now "need" something tangibly positive to generate new buying and that is likely to be a tall order, especially since Yellen's comments on Friday only helped the indexes in a very small way. Simply stated, buying dips is not likely to work as well this time as in the past.
Nonetheless, this is a week where economic reports of importance are due out and as such, the bulls could not find a better time to stage a rally than this week, if and when the reports come out as they want them to. Figuring what the traders want the reports to come out
OSK generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 5-week high and then going below the previous week’s low and closing in the red. The negative reversal was even more notable given the fact that the stock got up to the 50-week MA, currently at 48.70, and responded negatively thereafter. The 50-week MA has proven to be a valuable indicator given that the stock broke below the line 35 weeks ago and has not been able to get above it since, in spite of the stock trading around the line for the past 5 weeks and having tested it successfully once before. Minor intra-week support is found at 45.36 and pivotal support is found at 44.16. Resistance that is probably pivotal is found at 48.52. Nonetheless, above that level the stock still shows resistance at 49.40 and at 50.27. Probabilities favor the bears.
Odds have to be increasing-
1) AM General now is producing Mercedes Benz SUVs in Indiana -. a) They are teetering on bankruptcy and b) They will have their hands full making the Benz's - there is no way they can produce both credibly. Has to be big concern to DOD
2) Lockheed lost their Manufacturing Partner midstream when BAE shut down Sealy. That would have been a tough facility to compete against. Now an unproven truck maker is making trucks for the first time in a non-truck facility
Odds looking really good for OSK