go take a hike pal. You are on the wrong channel. T-Mobile is the grow bigger than ATT. Legere is stealing customers from the others at rapid pace these past 2 years. You must be crazy to sell or short it during its growth period.
Doubtful. T-Mobile has better prospects than the failing Sprint. T-Mobile will remain a player in the market for the foreseeable future. As to how strong it will be has yet to be seen. The Red, Blue and Magneta balls are still up in the air. The Yellow ball doesn't have enough air in it to sustain itself. Son is attempting to reinflate Sprint but the rate of reinflation is not adequate.
Look at the chart: TMUS has gone up toward the thigh end of a several month price range. It went up about 33% from lows of earlier this year, a degree of gain that many investors would be happy to have in the bank on an annual basis. That sets up increased sell pressure to lock in gains.
Stocks also tend to move up ahead of earnings. The bias is not huge, it averages only about 1.3% for all stocks. However, it is most pronounced in adding to the momentum for stocks that had been beaten down or otherwise trending higher prior to the release. "Buy the rumor, sell the news" is a common market phrase that applies to TMUS' recent rise leading up to earnings.
The mid-term factor is that as T-Mobile has continued to grow the market has continued to saturate and have higher expectations. TM and competitors have to reach into the hat and pull out more performance, higher bandwidth, more-for-same or less pricing: increased value proposition for consumers. The 'young and restless' gen-Y/millennials (whatever the newly coined name happens to be), is not without limits. That presents a risk that growth will slow and margins will collapse. T-M's results counter that risk that if continued will cause the stock to rise based on higher sales and P/L numbers.
Investors looking for an edge on the market will use a combination of chart analysis and fundamentals.
Short-term TMUS looks bearish. I interpret the chart to show the stock being under pressure from profit taking rather than what may be interpreted as negative trends in fundamentals due to the results. Although ARPU/ARPA shrunk, the results are positive overall.
If a pull back or period in which TMUS digests recent gains occurs and the TA turns bullish, the stock may turn back to a buy. TMUS has moved up more than most stocks do in an entire year. The long term position is BUY... wait for a good time to enter new positions.
An analyst a few months back predicted that the pps for TMUS will go to $72/share on its own. It appears that he may be just right. If Papa Son or Charlie or Comcast OR . . . . want to acquire it they will have to pay over $100, JMO. Assuming the world does not fall apart in the mean time.....
T-Mobile (TMUS) continues to rock the US wireless market, turning in better than forecast/guided subscriber growth. The guidance for the year 2016 sub growth and EBITDA was increased. This shows that T-Mobile is not (yet) seeing a downward slope in its growth - growth has leveled off which allows T-Mobile to compete on capacity and pricing while increases profits. In other words, T-Mobile is hitting the sweet-spot between growth and profits as competition has increased.
Long Term Outlook:
T-Mobile is achieving growth while also achieving sustainable growth in cash flows and bottom line profit. T-Mobile's challenge over the past four years was to exploit network improvements into market growth in order to achieve a sustainable level of revenue and profits. The long-term goal includes achieving volume efficiencies comparable to the larger rivals Verizon and AT&T. T-Mobile's quarterly results go a significant step forward to assure TMUS will surmount future hurdles to be a long-term competitor.
Good grief, for all the talk that the CEO does, you'd think he'd have a decent balance sheet. Who cares if you made $400 million if you're sitting on $30 bil in DEBT????? They'll likely implement a divvy here, but with that balance sheet, that's certainly not appealing. Can the stock go UP? Yes. For sure, it could double on fumes and hype with ease. But my strategy as an investor is to stay AWAY from debt pigs, no matter how great their goods, services and commercials are. I'll remain a consumer only.
Debt only becomes a problem if the company fails to use it to return a profit that pays it off and then some over time. The wireless operator business is among the most highly debt-leveraged in the world. That is significantly due to 1) The networks used to provide service requires spending tens of billions of dollars upfront and billions more to build the infrastructure starting years before a dime of revenue is produced. 2) Mobile is by far the largest consumer product area in the world. It requires spending billions more to field devices to sell to consumers, tying up to tens of billions more capital float.
The wireless industry has come from nothing in the 90's to the largest cash flow business with most of the world's population as users. Just fifteen years ago few operators had wideband spectrum. Service was voice and some text messaging. Since then, operators had to go into debt to acquire spectrum and build out networks that cost tens of billions. The last big auction in the US will be occurring over the next 3-4 years, winding down after the 600MHz incentive auction. Thus, business success has been pegged to going into debt during the 'spectrum acquisition cycle' to be followed, they hope, by a period of increased margins as the assets are leveraged without large new capex being required.
T-Mobile is doing a great job thus far in leveraging their debt position.
A forecast of 72 or 100 is easy to make.. if the growth in subscribers and sales follows through with a reasonable increase in margins then that price range should eventually follow. However, that is not much of a forecast because the growth curve may just as well change due to increased price competition, market saturation, and ups and downs of build cycles. Throwing any number out there and saying 'it looks like it is right' means little until the track record of the firm/person or logic behind the forecast has lent credibility. Most financial analysts are ANALysts: they build financial models using the basic forecast modeling software/spreadsheets the industry and their firms have developed they or past ANALysts have probably modified the model to fit the industry sector and specific company so that the model is almost always within a few pennies of actual results so long as they correctly gather and plug the numbers into it. There is room for interpretation but for well-known industries the models should be reasonably accurate. That makes the job that of watching for changes that occur in turnover, capital expenditures, etc. If there are no major shifts then its paint by the numbers to reveal the picture.
Retail investors are noobs - those who make money usually do not let their egos get the best of them by making predictions they have not done the work to justify. $72, $100... what crapola. If you have not followed the recipe, done the work in the kitchen, then you have no business throwing out numbers or making statements about past predictions that turned out either being hair brained or far too early to make investors money.
If anyone knows how to get a hold of this dweeb then please let me know. I'm looking to get in a cage match with this stooge and if he wins I will then switch to T-Mobile and purchase some stock. Otherwise please find him a morgue afterwards.