pricing per foot for automotive for mass adoption would most likely need to be substantially reduced - a windshield probably currently costs an auto manufacturer $25
but to hit the 5% mark they could focus on less price sensitive markets - those that are OK with the added cost for the coolness factor of a green windshield.
Then do the standard Corning thing and refine processes for mass-adoption. Margins would shrink but they could find a way to make it work.
I said something similar a few weeks ago:
to put Gorilla Glass and automotive in context:
- approx. smartphone market is 1B units/yr
- approx. car market is 80M units/yr
- 1 car is approx. equivalent of 200 phones
capturing 5% of car market would be the equivalent of capturing 100% of the phone market which would more than DOUBLE GG output
The current consumer-electronics market for Gorilla Glass is less than 1 billion square feet per year. By contrast, the total automotive glass market is 5.5 billion square feet per year. According to Forbes, capturing just 5% of that market could result in specialty materials segment revenue increases of 25% for Corning.
BUBBA, thanks for the clarification. For the record all of my shares were purchased in the 2-5/sh range. I've been a shareholder for a long time and still hanging in there.
to the folks who down voted this: do you even have a clue? Why are you in a stock if you have no clue how the market works?
The $18.50 was a generous multiple based on TTM sales. Now that sales have fallen off the cliff, why do we even want this company? Never mind $18.50, why do we want it at all?
I agree. The Q1 16 numbers were not that stellar to say the least. I think $18.50 is more than fair.
Pack up the bags and walk.
unless 80% tender, the deal is a no go. Usually you get 60% or 70% in the first pass and then everyone sees a majority has tendered and they tender. in this case, they are all hanging for a higher deal. I think GLW should walk.
It doesn't look good but extension is only 10-12 days which makes it appear as though DCJV will be completed before 6/3.
The facts are that GLW is into total buybacks for $10.125 billion (565 million shares) over the past 8 years thru Q1 '16. Had the question been posed to me as a shareholder voting that GLW was going to undertake this massive buyback plan, I would have voted no.
I can't undue the past buybacks, no different than trying to undue the 2001 fiber debacle which resulted in shares priced at $2.
Only thing I look at is what the future holds and whether the plan will generate future returns on my investment. My two cents is strictly trying to understand his plan and if it appears achievable. I'd have sold my shares if I didn't believe otherwise. Simply put there was pain in the dilution in '01-'02 equity raise and it's more pain in the '14-'16 buyback to unwind share count and return the share level to 800 million shares ('95-'97) when company was a solid member of S&P industrials.
Not affiliated with Corning nor have I ever been. Only relationship is stockholder for 21 years as mentioned in one of my earliest post.
I'm not sure who you are but based on the fact that you used the word "WE" twice my guess is that you are affiliated with Corning. If that's true, why are you on this board.
BUBBA, let me say this as simply as possible. The BB's have not added one cent to the share price and at the same time the billions spent on the BB's could have been spent in acquiring company's that would be accretive and add to the sales volume and bottom line profit - this moves the price per share. You provided great metrics in your response and those metrics might work or be relevant with properly managed companies. GLW spent 10 billion and the share price went from 25 to at times less than 18.
The buybacks are active and % loaded for this year as long as price stays within P/BV of 1.3. Future years the % rate will wane. This is all centered on GLW's overall profile of cost of capital. Weeks locked up debt (bonds) with a corp AAA rating leading up to Q4 2015 and interest rates reflecting the AAA. In Oct when the 4 yr plan was announced it also included details that going forward GLW would manage their debt at a 2-1 debt to ebitda ratio. This ratio was the sign that leverage was on and so was risk. Soon after the call and 4 year plan, Moody's promptly downgraded their credit from AAA to Baa1 due to risk. Weeks had the money from debt and knew he wasn't going to be needing more on credit. Why? The DCJV was close to being done and announced come 12/13/2015 and with it he'd have $4.8 billion in cash. Who needs more credit when you have cash. Google: corning Moody's rating, it a good read and details the parameters for future downgrades or upgrades.
Q1 of 16 the debt to ebitda overshot the 2-1 metric. It came in at 2.37-1 but still below 2.5-1 parameter for additional moody downgrade. On the positive side of things display environment was coming back as mentioned by Weeks and then confirmed by GS Clark upgrade. Optical is showing strength (ex software issue). Optical remains strong due to database growth (AFOP) and carriers AT&T et al. Google fiber is driving the carriers fast and hard as well as some database business.
The 4 year plan gives Weeks the operating flexibility with respect to cash. The one item in the plan that is non-negotiable and locked is the dividend. Protect the dividend at all costs. The buybacks lower future cash outlay inclusive of the 10% annual increase. The buybacks also lower the cost of capital as stock is removed the burden is being placed on debt and that's leverage with risk on. Once again the buyback needs to be done at levels (1.3 P/BV or less) that does not negatively effect overall equity.
That's how I see it.
BUBBA, this company does nothing effectively. The share price, the lack of upward movement indicates a lack of confidence in management and rightfully so. The company has huge potential in the automotive industry, building industry with their Smart Glass and they do nothing that we hear of and it appears to be the same business as usual. We need an activist to step in - this is a 30-35/sh stock and they can't get back to the last high of 25.16/sh. Buy Backs have to stop because its been proven to be a huge mistake. Give the billions to the shareholders in the form of Special Dividends so we make some money as management.