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Shire plc Message Board

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  • the way your boys made them bid up the price to fair value. LOL now all those ex VPHM sellouts will be out on their #$%$. So what goes around comes around. They were losers and still are.

  • Reply to

    Is my math right for the merger?

    by sharktank30 Jul 22, 2014 12:54 PM

    Thank you for clearing that up! I was reading it and doing the math and thinking "am i getting screwed here". But sounds like, although not a ton of money, another 5% is nice and a solid 15% gain on the stock.

    I was seconds away from buying at $180 then the phone rang and then market closed. Next day, stocked boomed ! damn you phone!!!

  • Reply to

    Is my math right for the merger?

    by sharktank30 Jul 22, 2014 12:54 PM

    "If we receive 91.07 per share we own, "
    No. The SHPG ADR shares you are referring to equal 3 regular shares.
    I don't think the regular shares are going to be as high as $91.07, but if they were that high, the SHPG ADR price would be $273.21.
    Also, Shire shareholders will own 25% of the new company, not of ABBV. So you can't look at ABBV share price other than the closing price 7/17/14 as in the math below.
    I think the way to calculate the SHPG price is 24.44 GB Pounds times the GBP/dollar conversion rate or about 1.7082 as of yesterday plus 0.896 times $53.52 (ABBV stock price at the close July 17th).
    To do the math, it is $41.748 in cash plus $47.954 in ABBV stock for total value of $89.702 per Shire share times 3 for the ADR price of $269.11 which is 5.97% higher than today's close.
    Instead of $53.52 for ABBV's price, they might be using the 30 day volume weighted average of ABBV shares prior to the close July 17th, which , as I recall , was $54.83 which gives a slightly higher ADR price.

  • The very earliest is probably November, maybe December. These things take months to work out. WhatsApp was finally acquired by Facebook yesterday and FB bought them in February. Could be early 2015 due to holiday season and timing.

  • If I owned 5 shares of Shire I purchased at 234.95 (purchase price of $1,174.75) . The stock is trading today at 254.50; could sell and make $100...... :/

    If we receive 91.07 per share we own, that comes out to $455.35. We then own 25% of AbbVie. Stock is trading at 54.10 today so 25% of that is 13.53 shares. 13.53 shares x 54.10 = $731.70. Add this to the $455.35 cash value from merger and that's $1187.05. This is a profit of only $12.30, but I get shares of AbbVie. Compared to $100 profit.

    So is it essentially a risk of holding on and keeping AbbVie shares that makes it entertaining, or did I do my math wrong here?

  • Reply to

    Suggestions for a new investment?

    by jackmurphy349 Jul 14, 2014 9:09 PM

    Well if the INSM share price has indeed been capped, this buyout of Shire could turn out to be perfect timing both for shareholders of Shire and shareholders of Insmed - and very bad news for the arrogant shysters who have accumulated substantial Short positions in INSM.

    Those bozos might be happy to sell an extra three hundred thousand shares in order to prevent the price moving to a higher level, but I doubt they'll be prepared to sell an extra three million shares.

    Three million shares at $20 would cost $60 million. Shire's market cap is over $50 billion.

    If only 0.1% of that $50 billion is moved into INSM by proactive shareholders who realize what's coming - demand for $50 million worth of shares is surely going to force the Shorts to take their lumps and cover their positions.

    Geneva, May 24 -

    [ The Sixty-seventh World Health Assembly closed today, after adopting more than 20 resolutions on public health issues of global importance.

    The delegates recognized their growing concern of antimicrobial resistance and urged governments to strengthen national action and international collaboration. This requires sharing information on the extent of resistance and the use of antibiotics in humans and animals. It also involves improving awareness among health providers and the public of the threat posed by resistance, the need for responsible use of antibiotics, and the importance of good hand hygiene and other measures to prevent infections.

    The resolution urges Member States to strengthen drug management systems, to support research to extend the lifespan of existing drugs, and to encourage the development of new diagnostics and treatment options. ]

    Would not phasing out the treatment of pulmonary infections by tablet or injection in favor of inhaled liposome formulations be guaranteed to substantially reduce the opportunity for antimicrobial-resistant strains to emerge - and therefore "extend the lifespan of existing drugs."?

  • I would think some minor positive catalysts would be ABBV shareholder approval and SHPG shareholder approval.
    As analysts have said, there is the possibility of setbacks due to "headlines" if politicians or analysts interpreting the politicians say it is likely tax inversions will be made more restrictive than this deal calls for retroactively to before the deal was struck last Friday.

  • i sold my shares, and am using it in the market to generate cash, i want to benefit from this 90$ a share, when do u suggest buying shares again? begining of october? since the news says closnig in the fourth quater? thnx

  • Reply to

    Suggestions for a new investment?

    by jackmurphy349 Jul 14, 2014 9:09 PM

    SHPG was rumored to be looking to acquire NPSP, so I'd think it's likely the new ABBV would pursue that target after the buyout closes.

  • Reply to

    Suggestions for a new investment?

    by jackmurphy349 Jul 14, 2014 9:09 PM

    Jack, re your -

    "But using a more conservative (and tidy) combination of a price of $50,000 and a multiple of 7 - the current market valuation would be equivalent to 2,000 patients using the therapy."

    the excuse that supports this charade is that "the market" is only expecting the drug to be approved -

    1. In the US: for NTM only - and then only for the sub-population with persistent multi-drug-resistant NTM infection covered by the clinical trial.

    2. In Europe: for Cystic Fibrosis only - and then only by a small proportion of the current TOBI users.

    But an excuse is all it is, buying the professional investors more time to accumulate shares at an obscene discount to their fair value - either from gullible retail investors who believe "the share price says it all" or from the Company via share offerings.

    Such as the offering last July - after confirmation of the widely-expected EMA Phase III success had mysteriously resulted in the share price DROPPING to below $10, from the $14-plus it hit two months earlier in the expectation of that success.

    The solid proof of the charade is that fact that even now no analyst covering the stock has ever acknowledged the possibility of use in TB.

    The FDA has even granted Breakthrough Therapy status on the basis of efficacy in converting patients with MDR-NTM to 'sputum culture negative', some of whom were testing culture-negative after only four weeks.

    The inefficient delivery of antibiotics via the bloodstream to treat pulmonary infections is doubly inefficient in the case of mycobacteria, which actually colonize the macrophages whose function it is to digest bacteria.

    For that reason the currently recommended duration of therapy for both NTM and MDR-TB is a minimum of eighteen months.

    Yet not a single analyst has realised that an inhaled aminoglycoside capable of converting MDR-NTM patients to culture-negative in just one month is likely to be a far better TB therapy than any single therapy currently available?

  • Reply to

    Suggestions for a new investment?

    by jackmurphy349 Jul 14, 2014 9:09 PM

    According to Barron's , JAZZ is highly likely to be next takeover target after Shire Plc and before any action taken by Congress to limit inversions. Jazz potential upside in this case will be at least $60 -$65 per share .Not bad if you buy 100 shares of Jazz !!! and it is in the very very near future... Spread the good news.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    US Admin trying to stop inversions

    by blackoutbuzz Jul 16, 2014 10:11 AM

    It does not matter. ABBV will own Shire NO MATTER WHAT. REGULATORS CAN NOT STOP THIS ANYMORE. ALL THEY CAN DO IS CREATE NOISE. THAT IS IT. THEY WANT PEOPLE WHO EARN MONEY TO PAY FOR THEIR ENTITTLEMENTS. That is why USA has the maximum corporate Tax.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Suggestions for a new investment?

    by jackmurphy349 Jul 14, 2014 9:09 PM

    Insmed's market valuation at close of business on Friday was about $700 million.

    During the latest presentation the CEO suggested a price for a six-month course of between $50,000 and $100,000. The most recent biotech price/sales multiple I've seen used is 8.

    But using a more conservative (and tidy) combination of a price of $50,000 and a multiple of 7 - the current market valuation would be equivalent to 2,000 patients using the therapy.

    The Company suggests target populations of -

    1. Nontuberculous mycobacterial pulmonary infection:

    50,000 US plus 30,000 Europe plus $30,000 Japan.

    (Australia, New Zealand, South Africa etc?)

    2. Cystic Fibrosis:

    30,000 US plus 35,000 Europe.

    There are no approved therapies for the former. No current approved therapy for the latter allows dosing just once daily.

    Furthermore I personally am certain the therapy will be used by a significant proportion of the estimated 630,000 Worldwide infected with Multi-drug-resistant Tuberculosis.

    The CEO recently disclosed that two companies had made overtures with regard to commercialization in Asia. China has the worst MDR-TB problem of all - an estimated 120,000 on the mainland alone.

    Doubtless even if the off-label price is lowered to $30,000 for a six-month course it will still be out of reach of the great majority of the MDR-TB patient population.

    But for those who can afford it - a therapy which does the same job (or better) as the currently-recommended injected aminoglycoside, and without the risk of kidney damage or loss of hearing, will be a no-brainer.

    A "quintuple" from the current share price will comfortably be achieved by 15,000 patients using the therapy.

  • Yes, as long as you buy SHPG before the deal closes, you will benefit from the higher price. If ABBV continues to move higher, than so will SHPG because a large part is the stock swap. .8960 of new abbv/shire share x3.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    US Admin trying to stop inversions

    by blackoutbuzz Jul 16, 2014 10:11 AM

    Sweet...SHPG negotiated a breakup fee that applies even if the deal falls through because of any inversion law stopping it

    @@@@@A $1.6 billion breakup fee would be paid to Shire if the acquisition isn't completed -- even if regulators block it.

  • As long as you have SHPG shares, you are covered. There is only less than 5% difference which will be chewed up in Taxes or transfer tax. Hope you have these stocks in Dividend Reinvestment Plan.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • thanks for the help, new trader trying to learn.
    my last question, so as long as someone buys shire shares before the transactions are made, they benefit from the 90$ per share?

  • Probably December 2014. It has to go through Shareholder approval and Due Diligence Period just like you buy a house, closing is after mortgage approval and inspections. But for now the money is in the bank.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Yes, the premium will be higher as abbv's price moves up.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • i mean the actual premium paid, and share swap, when would that occur

SHPG
252.75-2.28(-0.89%)1:53 PMEDT

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