Of course the results of clinical trials involve some luck. If the results of a clinical trial were known ahead of time, there would be no reason to run a trial!
"Do you own ovas too?"
I don't own OVAS, I only follow a few biotech companies. I haven't studied OVAS.
" from a technical standpoint this stock just broke through all resistance for the last year. How high do you think this can go in the near future (realistically)?"
Realistically, the market for cancer medicines is huge, and if a company comes up with a major innovation then they'll make a lot of money. If you had to list the biggest problems for the world then cancer and heart disease would be on the list for sure, well above the things that get the most press. (For example, climate change won't kill nearly as many people as heart disease.)
I'm not someone who looks at stock charts and thinks in terms of technicals and resistance levels. I am a long-term guy. In the long term it is science that changes the world. In the big scheme of things, trading the stock market casino-style seems to me like a waste of time, even in the case that it's very profitable. I'm happy to invest on long-term scales when if I think I see promising research, but I don't want to stare at a stock chart all day deciding when to move in and out.
No, I have never followed OVAS.
I heard about he company pre-IPO because I had been keeping tabs on the founders Eric Lander and Robert Weinberg. I had watched a number of lectures by Eric Lander in the heyday of the human genome project,. Then I watched the online videos of his biology course co-taught with Weinberg at MIT, which was absolutely excellent. You can tell immediately from their lectures that they're really first-rate scientists, even by the standards of MIT and Harvard. (I know lots of people at those schools.) This was before the $3M prize. I had a podcast habit, always listening to stuff while cooking, driving, ect, and occasionally I'd google someone's name and "podcast", if the someone was interesting. Lander and Weinberg were both on the "interesting" list. Anyway, I can't remember if I heard of the IPO from one of the podcasts or noticed it from one of the google searches.
I stumbled across that podcast of lead director Henri Termeer after investing in VSTM.
I found out about Charles Sawyers similarly, but foolishly thought I had missed the boat on Medivation because the price had already increased significantly!
how did you hear about this company? just curious. Do you own ovas too? from a technical standpoint this stock just broke through all resistance for the last year. How high do you think this can go in the near future (realistically)?
Some insight can be had into VSTM's company culture, especially in regard to buyouts, from lead director Henri Termeer. If you google "Henri Termeer Darden podcast" you'll get an hour long interview of the guy, where he explains his colorful career as the longtime CEO of Genzyme, which he raised from a tiny startup to a biotech giant, which finally succumbed to a hostile takeover. The guy is fun to listen to, even for people not investing in biotech.
"if by good fortune" is your own statement you need to look at. You are talking about PURE LUCK. lol. So your assumption is basically based on pure luck and hope on your part.
that might be the case, but as of now it would be a stretch. You are also assuming ovas doesn't keep going higher. I own both by the way so I don't favor one over the other. Also, it will take a lot more than 1 billion to buy ovas assuming they did it today. That is the market value..I am sure they would want a 20-25% premium AT THE MINIMUM. VSTM just doesn't have the finances to even come close to an offer right now. I am looking at reality right now..not fantasy.
Not a stretch, biotech prices react violently to data. If by good fortune it becomes clear from excellent data that VSTM will have a blockbuster in any large indication then a $1B market cap would be quite cheap.
ya but that doesn't really mean anything. They can change their minds anytime and just remember the motto: everything is for sale at the right price.