mrdtino..Looking back days when I use to work for JNJ & PFE; mildly involved in technology acquisition team thru R&D inputs.....cost of money was important but much bigger decision making factor is how sure of acquiring assets...So my opinion is most of deal makers prefer wait till targeted assets are clearly defined instead of rushing into due to cost of possible rising interest rate...I never recommend early move for cost of money...Big pharmas are blessed with favored term money...
That is reason I don't believe we will see any buy offer near term ; next 6 month...
Also option activity show none.....
Bonk if were to be Lilly or Novartis or Pfizer or anyone else....I can see it being done before year end. The smell of rate hikes still exists regardless of Greece. I guess our Dovish Fed Chair speaks this Friday - might learn more as to which way they're leaning. Better to swoop now no?
SOOZ; I don't believe any buy offer is in air....absolutely no sign of leverage option players now or to Jan.2016.. IF IF IF LLY make offer soon ,it won't be $145 to draw competitors to table...that is too amateurish game plan for LLY..and $160 won't even be close for INCY/HH & board to serious consider. INCY has too deep pipeline to sell at $160....even $200 is too cheap...unless near $225, deal won't get serious now ,before Jan.16....
Way Biotech sector and INCY is going ,we can get $300 -$400 in 2-3 yrs
I am not interested in sell at $160 this yr and pay 50% income tax.
Technical it is then Sooz. Just feels different but Technical Move works too!! if Lilly has been sniffing around...they may be sniffing harder!! Nice strong moves into the close Friday and Today.
i view the move a 100% technical. slow stochastics turning up and incy has been seeing some decent accumulation the last 3-4 session. i still think Lily will make an offer in the $145 area which will be rejected before we are offered $160 which i think would have a 50:50 chance of getting done.
bottom line, i think it is a good time to pick up some laggards in the sector. added to BIIB today and a little more BLCM.
Now over 1.5 hrs later, we saw quick drift down but recovered...looking better with more interest on buy side to hold....today is 4 days of biotech strength...glad I am 95% biotech investor...bought more HALO today...
checking option ; no sign of confident activity, short or long term.....only breeze I can feel is shortage of supply on low volume trades ?
Mrdtino; yes , I feeled same nice warm breeze even at pre-opening, now it's clear difference ...hope it's not buy out rumor.., we don't need buyout...lets wait couple more years for that..........at $300-$400
I sure picked a great weekend to get norovirus (over the illness but still highly contagious); still, it gives me a chance to think about stuff.
In Recap, the patients who entered hospice care all discontinued Ruxo (check me on that). I'm curious about whether they had any choice, and about whether there's a prospect of palliative use of Jakafi going on-label as a result of the Janus trials.
Ruxo alone was not a test treatment in Recap, so continuing it in a hospice setting would have been outside the protocol; Capecitabine is a drug meant to prolong life which does not increase patient comfort, so it would surely be excluded from hospice use. So in a strict sense, continuing Ruxo into hospice should be excluded. But objectively, a meaningful number of subjects on the trial drug experienced weight gain, which is unheard of among terminal PaCa patients, and which in itself contributes to subjective wellbeing in both patients and families. Subjectively, it's not presented in a way that's easy to be sure of, but non-specific constitutional problems MAY have been helped by Ruxo.
One of the secondary outcome measures of Janus 1 is "Safety and tolerability of the treatment regimens assessed by a summary of adverse events and clinical laboratory assessments. [ Time Frame: Baseline through approximately 30 days post treatment discontinuation. Approximately 21 months. ]"
Again, Ruxo alone is not a treatment arm, but the study is large enough to highlight any "never happens" tolerability events. It seems possible, in principle, for Janus 2 to be modified to allow continuation of Ruxo alone into a hospice setting, if the hospice programs agree. That could be enough to put it on-label. Hospice programs could adopt palliative use of Ruxo without a label, but Incyte can't promote it without one.
Jacosa, terrific analysis as usual. Funny, when you mentioned Characters I thought you were referring to Vaseline and the Geron folks...Seeking Alpha - some of Cramer's cohorts. The usual suspects. Happy 4th to you and many thanks for all of your previous and I'm sure future wise posts!!
Good find! Time will tell who has the best drug solution to MF and some of these other complex cancers. Guess I will just hold INCY to see if they fit well in the profitability quotient.
We seem to be getting fewer characters to a posting.
The long-time ends of those curves are confounded by crossovers in the trial designs, and of course you should study inclusion and exclusion criteria and protocols to be accurate about who is helped by what sort of treatment. But just from those curves one can say that a fairly typical mild-to-intermediate-risk MF patient will live a year longer taking Jakafi than with the control treatments.
Future refinements in what you can say about survival advantage will not have such compelling trial designs behind them. The best we can hope for in medium- and high- risk patients is comparison against matched historical controls. While treatment of indolent and low-risk MF is not on the Jakafi label, we can expect to see studies in these groups, either from Incyte or from independent investigators. These trials may have simultaneous randomized control groups.
Note that for less-rapidly-fatal diseases, a modest visual separation of Kaplan-Meier curves can represent a substantial difference in survival time. On the other hand, when we see results presented concerning pancreatic cancer, large visual separations may represent few days of survival. There are drugs that change the shape of Kaplan-Meier curves (this is often called disease modification) and drugs that shift the curves (often called giving a respite).