I don't have any idea what this will do in the short term, but after listening to the conference call and the conference presentation, I'm thinking you will be pleased with your purchase.
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Held on almost even. Darn hit 40 ?????
nail bitter hoping to make money wish I bought at 40 i tell ya
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Loss per share for gwph was not as bad as predicted and there earnings are a bit ahead. This is a waiting game based on results for Epidiolex trials.
Not really. Sativex should be available NOW for MS patients at least. Sativex is an efficacious formulation for a variety of neurological conditions. It has been successfully trialed and used for years in the UK. It's the Elephant in the room that is being opposed by most governments (they won't pay for it). It is a cannabis extract with both THC and CBD in a 1:1 ratio. So, it's bad. You could get high with it if you took more than the recommended dose. BFD. The FDA has it on a shelf somewhere. Outrageous. But the resistance is futile. We will have cannabinoid based medicine sooner rather than later.
If you still believe in epidiolex then you may be making a massive mistake. Have you considered buying a put option? I've hedged half my position with puts. Just because the whole small cap biotech market tanked 50-80% doesn't mean the fundamentals of GW have changed. Yes, we were in a bubble and we all wish we sold at $133. The "lawsuits" always come out of the woodwork when material drops in stocks occur. It was an honest accounting error that they detected and disclosed. Hardly fraud. If you are loosing sleep over this and can't afford to loose anymore $ than by all means sell. But please ask yourself if anything has really changed other than the share price.
I said the next FEW weeks. In reality Epidiolex comprises 95% percent of the share price (ex cash of course). So if the Epidiolex study fails miserably that'll basically destroy the company. Yeh they do have some pipeline opportunities but nothing as promising as the epilepsy indication. Maybe they can survive but it'll be at a much lower market cap. Shares will trade under 15 a share. If the data barely misses statistical significance then all is not lost because they can pool the data from the remains dravet study as well as the LGS studies. So the big make or break study is the first dravet ph3 which is due in the next few weeks.
I bought GWPH in the summer of 2013 at $9.50. At $100 I sold just enough shares to retrieve my original investment. I have a zero cost basis. This is what I call "prudent speculation". I guess that's why I don't feel too bad about the latest price decline. And besides, the fundamental reasons I bought in the first place have not changed at all. One poster here claims to have bought at $113. So he bought after the stock had risen 1200% in a little over 2 years. He better not quit his day job.
The accounting thing is paperwork. It is not relevant to the success or failure of the cannabinoid platform. The proven scientific facts are the reason I own GW. The lawsuits serve one purpose - to shake out the weakest hands.
Momentum and speculation stocks have the greatest volatility. TSLA closed at 148 today. Considering the 52 week high is 286 you probably consider that a terrible stock also.
GWPH dropped from over 110 to the low 60's before heading up to the 130's. If you had owned the stock back then you probably would have sold in the 60's and missed out.
Where you say "terrible stock", I say "arbitrage opportunity." It's just a difference of opinion. Maybe you will end up right on this but my view is if you think Epidiolex results at the end of Q1 2016 will be good then it's not worth selling right now.
Lastly, my "Strong Buy" doesn't mean zero risk. Sure there is significant risk but if my assumptions are right about the lawsuits and future Epidiolex results then this is a good arbitrage opportunity.
I hope you did not lose a lot of money. Everyone on here has lost money on a stock at some point and it's never fun.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Most likely, 2 years from now you will be thinking "I could have bought that for $40". You are right about the sentiment though. Lows are made when the sentiment is extremely negative. Are we there yet? This too we will know in the fullness of time.
To be fair you probably thought I was silly when I said I was looking at the $42-$46 range, and TBH everyone would of thought it silly that the stock would drop from $133 - $40, its all about sentiment now, and if Epidiolex fails it will be ground down to very silly levels, but it wont feel silly then, it will just be like it is now..