I'm only addressing two issues:
1. They're hemorrhaging cash.
2. Their product is derived from a weed, so the barrier of entry seems extremely low.
If cannabis is legalized, it could be produced in enormous quantities by... gardeners.
What a tired argument. The vast majority of people will want a FDA approved medicine that contains exactly what it's claimed to contain.
Yes, but... a weed is the source of their drug. People with epileptic children already use cannabis without violating GWPH's patent. I don't see how this company could ever make enough money to justify an $80 stock price. Even if it works, why would a patient buy an expensive drug from GWPH, when they would be able to get the drug from any other company that would spring up with the same exact product: an oil/extract/molecule derived from a weed, not produced in a lab?
Well, your obviously unaware the proprietary patented plant based method GW Pharma grows with, your also unaware that GWPH actually has numerous patents regarding cannabis already with the US Patent office.
Cannabis is a weed and hence virtually free to "develop" unlike molecular pharmas that take years of research to develop and patent.
What's the barrier to entry of GWPH's drug works? (In fact, cannabis DOES work, that's why families with epileptic children move to Colorado.)
So, how will GWPH ever make a dime?
Even if GWPH has a drug approved, if the DEA reschedules which would certainly be a positive...
Cannabis is a plant. How on earth would one company patent a drug, when the source of the drug (a plant) is virtually free?
And make THC levels 0%. For those well versed in GWPH technology. I am curious to hear your thoughts on how GWPH could leverage XXII technology to increase CBD levels? I believe they can affect 6-8 cannabinoids in the cannabis plant. In the tobacco plant they can decrease nicotine down to 0% and increase the nicotine content 200% compared any conventional breeding. Imagine what that could do for CBD and medicinal uses?
Just a wild guess but I'll bet you are in favor of that other insightful investor, The Donald...right?
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Well said sir! We would hate for these MD's to keep writing narcotic scripts 24/7 like they're candy...... The American fad is overdosing on narcotics and Xanax.
they sound like The forever stoned hippie WILLIE NELSON (ain't he done a lot for society and Some gangster singer Snoopy Dog.) no sir re bob not on my watch...I ain't letting liberals ram a drug through. Tried it once when I was a dumb kid and vomited and no more. The entire nation is behind me. Another fad!!!!
I honestly think $24000 is accurate, potentially more. It's not uncommon for a Marinol or Cesamet rx to cost well over $1000 per month even though one is a generic. And I don't believe those were necessarily considered orphan drugs which are by definition allowed to demand a higher premium. Furthermore, payors will gladly pay if it keeps these poor children out of the hospital, which is where 82% of medical costs come from. There is a pharmacoeconomic justification for the high price in catastrophic level epilepsy patients.
What is a "very high price"? Analysts are saying ~ $24,000 per year for Epidiolex, but I think that's too high. The company won't make any predictions on price, but say they have been talking with pharmacy benefits managers. Knowing where the price (with discounts) settles, would be very helpful in estimating peak sales.
Wikipedia has a decent explanation. If a company is developing a drug for a rare disease, there are incentives for the company provided by law. Tax credits, grants, exclusive marketing rights, and so on. It doesn't really mean much though until the drug is approved by the FDA. But if a company has qualified for orphan status of a drug, they should certainly apply for the potential benefits by simply doing the paperwork involved and submitting it to the FDA.
One challenge since the beginning of Epidiolex was how to patent the product since you can't get a NCE (new chemical entity) patent on a naturally occurring molecule. Sativex is a complex plant mixture so it's not an issue ( no generic is possible since it's so complex, kind of like Premarin for ex). That's where orphan drug designation comes in. In order to incentivize development of drugs to treat rare diseases that big pharma traditionally ignored (under 200,000 people affected), the FDA created the orphan drug act. It allows financial incentives, expedited approval, and most importantly 7 years of market exclusivity (even if the drug is naturally occurring). This is why pharmaceutical companies target orphan diseases even though the drugs work across a broad indication (for ex Epidiolex in epilepsy). Also it'll allow them to demand a very high price for the treatment. Shrewd business move.
Sentiment: Strong Buy