Based on the stock actions there are issues that have not surfaced yet. With the earning missing of just a few pennies, the stock shouldn't down more than 30% from its peak. Until more shoes are dropped and dusts are cleared one would be better served to stay in sideline.
Its going through a period of consolidation. They are developing a solid track record on dividend pay-outs so I am adding at these levels. There has been some selling pressure driven I think by executives who have left the firm. Don't think its dead money. It can run right back into the 30's by year end. I view this stock as a core part of my portfolio. I have owned it since it went public and have been handsomely rewarded.
Apollo Global Management : Credit Suisse cuts target to $40 from $45; outperform
* Apollo Global Management : Evercore cuts target to $34 from $35; rating overweight
* Apollo Global Management : Deutsche Bank cuts target to $27 from $29; rating hold
* Apollo Global Management : UBS cuts target price to $34 from $37; rating buy
* Apollo Global Management : Citigroup cuts target price to $32 from $34; rating buy
Initial response to Leon's discussion appears to be positive. However, stock is down sharply. Buyers are slightly more than sellers.
Leon Black spoke for the first time and was joined by Josh Harris. They described a very robust, multi-faceted alternative management investment platform that should grow well into the future. I recommend you listen to it, especially the piece about Athene which is one of their key strategic initiatives. If I heard them right, they are only managing/sub-advising 17% of the 100bn? Athene platform. So there is significant growth to come from this entity, excluding the eventual IPO of it could pay-off handsomely. Don't forget that they also have an interesting mix of other companies (Sprouts, Hostess, to name two) to fuel future realizations. A few analysts recently commented that APO is 50% undervalued. From what I heard on this call, they may be right.
Based on 1st Qtrs dividend of 84., at $25.87 price equals approx. 13.% for the year. Those selling today have a double whammy loss...4% off yesterdays close & dividend.
Doesn't make sense to me, from my average cost of APO, I'm clipping along at 20% dividend return, better than bonds or any stock I can think of....
Apollo declares a distribution of $0.84 per Class A share for the first quarter of 2014
• Total economic net income (“ENI”) after taxes of $219 million for the first quarter ended March 31, 2014, compared to $764 million for the comparable period in 2013
• ENI after taxes per share of $0.55 for the first quarter ended March 31, 2014, compared to $1.95 per share for the comparable period in 2013
• Total assets under management (“AUM”) of $159.3 billion as of March 31, 2014, compared to $114.3 billion as of March 31, 2013
• U.S. GAAP net income attributable to Apollo Global Management, LLC of $72 million for the first quarter ended March 31, 2014, compared to $249 million for the same period in 2013
• Apollo returned $4.4 billion and $23.6 billion of capital and realized profits to limited partner investors during the first quarter and last twelve months ended March 31, 2014, respectively
I saw an article that disclosed that APO would pay-out incentive compensation in APO stock with a 3-year vest to eligible investment professionals who earn a share of realized incentive fees that APO generates from this new fund. This is noteworthy because if you assume a 2.5x multiple on invested capital on Fund 7, a 17.5% incentive fee and a 40% pay-out rate to the investment professionals, this move could increase distributable net income by roughly 1bn over the next 7 years. Shareholders would pick up this amount in dividends (after dilution for the shares issued to pay the incentives. In the past, they paid these amounts out in cash so distributable net income would be lower historically than what it will be on this fund prospectively. Unless this somewhat novel approach to compensation creates turnover, it is a shareholder friendly move that should increase their $.15 stated quarterly dividend.