Not really. I bought around the IPO levels at 18.77, but you would not know that so fair comment. Nevertheless, my view is the same. At a low end divvy of 1.50, the yield at today's price is around 7%. Assuming it falls further from here, an even better yield. Just need to pay close attention to asset purchases (like Hostess a few years ago @ 400mm) and the expected sale (rumored at 2bn) and calibrate the divvy on asset sales. I would like to see a wash-out that takes it down to 17-18.
You were doing great until you contradicted yourself:
"pummeled since its high of 34" ... very true btw... BUT then you end with "produced solid total returns (divvy plus cap appreciation)" REALLY?? CAP APPRECIATION, 36.22 to 21.06 yesterday??
I like this company, but not at this valuation, mid teens.
Stock has been pummeled since its high of 34. IMHO, all based on them harvesting their PE companies and paying out hefty dividends over the past few years. They are working to re-build their pipeline of PE companies for the next wave of harvesting which won't be for 3-5 years. In the meantime, you are right that their Credit Division should start to produce higher next income driven by higher rates. Most of their assets are variable rate so you would expect to see a better contribution form this division. How much of a dividend can this division produce is unclear to me. However, the stock is inexpensive at this or lower levels. I was hoping it would go to the teen (17-18) so I can buy more. Been long this puppy for a long time and it has produced solid total returns (divvy plus cap appreciation). so I am holding for the next leg-up which should take it to 30. Best of luck to all on this investment.
Mixed bag when it comes to analysts' expectations. Most recently, Piper Jaffray's initiated (06/02/15) APO with a $33PT. Morningstar, which I think has the least conflicts of interests, has a $42 PT but is clearly wrong. CS has a $23PT, Citi $25PT, Bofa $27PT.
Dividend is hard to anticipate as it depends on the quarter's realizations. I believe what weighs more is last quarter terrible results. My bank's analyst (JPM's) has a buy rating and a PT of 25.
looks like a buy opportunity that will pay you close to 10% dividend to wait it out. It seems that different PE firms come in and out of favor, maybe based on if they bought some good firms or not in their portfolio. Tides shift, so looks like a good buy opportunity, unless I'm missing some big risk at APO.
I agree. I mentioned the law suit because it is the only thing out there. Before, it was falling oil prices, now I do not know.
Most PEs are just off highs for the year, APO is close to lows year to date. I thought rising rates were good for companies like APO, which had a huge credit division. Similar to how banks benefit from rising rates? Lawsuit is related to the price they offered for a company, correct? That isn't a damaging lawsuit.
Last year Carlyle was hated and had a bad year. I guess this year APO is going to be in the penalty box.
"Apollo Global Management, LLC Analyst Rating Update
Apollo Global Management, LLC (NYSE:APO): 4 analysts have rated the shares as a strong buy. The Company shares has received a rating of Buy from 3 Wall Street Analysts.
Insider Trading Report - Jun 9, 2015"
"Update: Apollo Global Management, LLC Short Interest Drops by -0.6%
Apollo Global Management, LLC (NYSE:APO) stated loss of 24,166 shares or 0.6% in the short interest. The short interest registered from 4,244,038 on May 15,2015 to 4,219,872 on May 29,2015.
Insider Trading Report - 6 hours ago "
Anyone know why APO dropped so much in last couple of days on no news and flat overall stock market? Doesn't APO's massive credit division benefit in a rising rate environment? Rates based on treasury yields are at year highs so why is APO trending toward year low?
Looks like some small insider buying activity recently. Is there something we should be worried about with the declines or is this just a great buying opportunity going into a rising rate environment?