Distribution will be on 8/29 for holders of record at close of business 8/22.
Do you think this stock is worth holding ? What is your target price?
Company is growing nicely. Assets under management up and a very good pipeline of investments they will harvest over the next several quarters. The Q3 dividend is already .46 and will probably be somewhere in the .60-.70 range. Long term accumulate and hold. This company will have 300bn in AUM in two years and will be trading in the mid-40s. Its is volatile but has come well of its high of 36. Good luck.
Thanks, simpleguy. I've had this for a while and been very happy until lately. Although I am up considerably from distributions, it's fallen back to near my cost basis. I have a lot of faith in management but it's not easy to find reliable info on what's going on. May I ask where you get your info on dividends?
I feel your pain. Stay with it though because its a good investment. On their earnings call management stated that it already had .31 in distributable earnings from realizations (sales of holdings). So if you had this to the .15, the company pays our of its Management Company, the Q3 dividend is already @.46. There is almost 2 months to go in the quarter so I am projecting they will sell more investments and pick-up another .20 or so. I am also disappointed that the stock has not held-up better but these MLPs are hard to understand and I don't think the Analysts following it understand their strategy. Listen to an earnings call sometime and you will hear what I am saying. When I started buying this stock the Assets under management were about a third of where they are today. When the market wakes up to this company's business model, it should trade much higher. I project dividends of $3 per share in a steady state in about 2-3 years which implies a stock price of about $45 using a yield of say 7.5% and a 15x PE. Watch their investments into energy. They are betting that as the world restructures its infrastructure will require massive amounts of energy (and its starting) and Apollo is positioning excellent investments at great values. These guys are super bright and super motivated and don't overpay for anything. I would bet on Leon Black any day, and Josh Harris and Marc Rowan and as bright as they come. I study this company very carefully and know the numbers pretty well. I don't like some of the erratic expense (compensation) and personnel moves but these may be just minor blips. I would be buying more of this if it slips further. Good luck and keep the faith. Assuming the markets don't fall into another 2008 type crisis, I see 30 by YE14, 40 by YE15 and 50 by YE16.
Thanks again! I don't understand the overall operations nearly as well as you, but I do share your faith in management. So instead of being concerned with the current weakness, I will use it as an opportunity to add to my position. All I needed was a good pep talk. THANKS!
they never do. I followed BX for yrs and in bad times and good, the partners did well, not so much the shareholders. It took BX 6 yrs to get back to their IPO price.
They left enough on the table to pay this shareholder $4.25/share since last August so I'm not complaining. In my opinion the management is earning every dime they are paying themselves. As a matter of fact, I took advantage of the current weakness in PPS to add to my holdings.
The comp is certainly something to watch. One caveat about comp this quarter is that they changed their Carry Plans (incentive comp) from cash-payout to equity with vesting for many of the senior PE guys and they restructured James Zelter's comp plan (head of Credit). In addition, they said that the comp ratio was high for the Q and that it would normalize. Your points are good though, these guys are definitely going to get theirs yet they should be given credit for building a promising business. I really believe they will be at 300bn in AUM in a few years and will get this stock up to the mid 40s. Thanks for the intelligent post.