As noted last night, against the backdrop of all the ridiculously negative press and "jonny come lately" negatively slanted analysts reports (on "plummeting VIP" (9 of the 10 largest still operating all but 3 rooms LOL), the late summer '14 corruption crackdown/Zhou arrest in late July, Ho's reset of mass expectations to half the run rate of 1H as told in Aug '14, Jinping's Dec visit, smoking ban bs, it was good to see LVS offer up less than disastrous update last night, and remain "uber bullish" on the future of mass/premium mass in Macau...
I pointed out a few less than flattering aspects of the results (lucky holds and solid Singapore results made to look really good by the obscured property tax credit incl in "ebitda" verbiage until they came clean at the end of Q&A and then only when asked?) , but still good to see less than awful results. Shel dissing MPEL's HODW and saying they are the best on ebitda (in total, not relative to ROIC/footprint) was also pointed out as Shel's being out of touch a bit, but that is not new either.
Good to see LVS get to 80% of adj. ebitda in macau from mass play -- ironic that they call that best in the group; apparently they don't realize MPEL was up to 85% on that metric for the Sep Q and will no doubt be even moreso now given that VIP is down hard 4Q yoy (adj for premium mass playing in VIP rooms for smoking purposes).
MPEL should also look "best in class" on occupancy as they have run at 100% (30-40% turnaway rate) since March Q2014. COD has had better ADR/revpar too -- without the comp promos LVS concedes they are now doing to fill rooms.
Singapore doing decent on VIP is also an important note... seems some RC players will travel a bit further than Macau to play. Maybe that is part of what MPEL was alluding to when Ho said the 300 or so VIP suites at COD Manila was "not enough to meet demand." Macau really does need to think through whether they want all that biz to go elsewhere, but MPEL and LVS are all set if so.
So I take it that "better than average" is when the house had a higher percentage of winnings against it's clients. But then how is average determined? Since I have heard that the "house comes out ahead", I doubt that average is ever 50-50. Perhaps I just have a problem with the wording of Luck. I'm just trying to understand this better.
oh geez , they banned smoking in Atlantic City and you see what happened.Smoking in Vegas illegal except on gaming floor. Smokers vote with their feet. Smokers and drinkers gamble more than non- smokers and teetotalers.
how much have u lost on FEYE QCOM FB TSLA NFLX FKU_HOLLY? we're laughin HARD rite now
Shel has skimmed over favorable holds for years... he tends to discuss them only when they are light to "expected" bounds.. As for the property tax credit at MBS, no one is viewing that as "earnings"... and MBS still looks good given floored expectations
The U.S. listed stocks are all completely washed out down here, to the point where even though Vegas is worse than skeptics have modeled, it may be that even MGM is too cheap.
Goos did you listen to the call and read the report? If you back out the one time item and lucky 'hold', they didn't beat. I'm content with their performance, but it was not a good performance, and I doubt Melco will hold as lucky as LVS did.
That being said, at least Ho repurchased shares at advantageous prices. (unlike Sheldon)
squeezetracker • Feb 20, 2014 11:40 AM
Adding to core down here
Group move underway without MPEL ... love it.
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squeezetracker • Feb 21, 2014 12:38 PM
We are now on our largest ever allocation and done adding unless the stock breaks down again.
It was a delightful little shakeout while it lasted, serving our wants just perfectly.
*note the stock was $42 at that time.
Actually, you were urging for a buyback instead of a dividend when the stock was at all time highs. Good thing the company waited on the buyback.
But it does mean you were bullish up at those levels. Can't really claim you told everyone to lighten up and at the same time urge the company to buy.
No, pretty much you are the only idiot here.
The other multiliias poster was a seller at the top and didn't reload until down about $10 before selling out in the high 20s and then reloading some at $25 as he documented here and elsewhere on various pseudo names and alaises. He's no idiot like you though -- he can actually write and is reasonably bright... he just lacks integrity and consistency, has no sense of couth, and is intentionally underhanded and deceitful as called out on this board.
And several of those who considered my suggestion to sell or lighten or hedge out the double top (both times) above $43 last January and March thanked me for that perspective right on this board and on email.
You really ought to find something to do with your time -- you sukk at dissing people and must simply like being stomped on. Thanks for the entertainment tho... fun to call it out your stupidity when i see it and have time.
Great to listen to upbeat comments on LVS and Macau as the "Greatest gaming market in the world" (per Rob). They did a great job emphasizing the positives and fun to see them address "new Macau" by saying "diversification" at least 25 times on the CC... Also good to see their emphasis on adj ebitda... that is the important measure and why mass/premium mass is the future for MPEL and LVS. Shel still thinks absolute level of ebitda makes LVS best in class and all that matters though. He stills struggles with the difference between that and what matters more than total ebitda: adj ebitda/capital invested (cash ROIC). No one is ahead of MPEL on that metric in Macau, not even Steve now that VIP is haircut 40% or more at WYNN.
LVS numbers (not so much the script) also make it obvious that Vegas is hurting -- as discussed here while the weakest of the bunch and the idiots on this board were dissing macau last summer, so much for the big Vegas "resurgence" the analyst group was touting last summer while the May and June fly ins from China were happenings, along with Steve's "Latins" LOL
A point of departure: Shel's comments on HODW and entertainment at COD were out of touch. Shel does not understand that HODW is an "every visit" thrill for most of MPEL's "premium" end of the market clientele and that the show does change over time. He apparently also does not realize what MPEL is bringing to the party with Studiop City phase 1 and then 2.
And Shel has in fact done a great "diversification" service to Macau with all the MICE facilities... hat off to him for that investment -- all of the companies benefit from big events and it helps other properties fill up rooms (MPEL's COD is the best occupied property on macau week in and week out as you likely know -- 100% last three Qs running).
Again, good to hear an upbeat assessment on things going better than the bs media and weak analysts would have guessed, especially in the very soft Dec Q.
I see that below sheethead doesn't grip what an idiot he is yet... what a pos on all 10 or so aliases.
Everyone here longer run knows we bailed on the trading allocation and hedged out the core at $43 in January 2014 and on the next trade chunk out again at $43 in March after $38 reload...
Here's an excerpt (January 2014 with stock at $43.50 and dufusboy calling for $75 in 2014):
"several of the nubs here trying to dis me (and other longtime quality guys like grftt) are also on that thread and other topics with ongoing examples of cluelessness. Eyes wide open folks; when dippy new #$%$ trading club idiots and other clueless individuals try to dis guys who have extensive knowledge of the markets, sector and individual companies are making points that putzes (see definition below) attempt to refute with ignorance, it is time to consider that this stock changing hands from high quality institutional sponsorship with extraordinary niche knowledge to those chasing [2013's performance here]. Be careful if you have serious money allocated here in an unhedged allocation."
then, on that same thread I expanded on that for Bentley when asked for more info:
"Those who have not been around or forget how several here tried to dis me for calling the stock "frothy" above $45 and suggesting, on january 18 and 19 (the first of the double top highss -- see comments below ) that some who had nice gains along with us might want to consider hedging or selling some along with more reasons for that assessment, might want to read this thread top to bottom."
Everyone who can read beyond sheethead/mytek/tahoe/idotpumper/fcaholly/fcaimbecile/fcanyc/dthe98 and his other labels here can just laugh.
The longtimers since 2009 know our long time success with this stock, and that we own the core at $17, and the current trade allocation right at $25 now... unhedged long the core at $17 and trade chunk at $25.
Again, just for Shirley Mason, the $17 and $25 #s are before hedge gain numbers.
Even Steve Kent (Goldie Suchs LOL) is back to bullish this week after repeating his BUY in July (WYNN AT ~$200 and LVS at ~$78) and then again in mid Sep on WYNN and LVS (at around $187 and $65 or so) before backing down his rating on both just before the bottom last month. The two multialias tarts here think the analyst group had the doom for 2014 called out in January, a month after the dumbest of the two was hyping MPEL would get to $75/share last year. Talk about funny... that was right when I suggested selling some/hedging out at $43+ (as we did and i know you did too Dave).
Listen to the LVS call tonight, Shel had fun kicking Kent in the nuts and all the exec guys chuckled about it. Maybe the LVS execs don't realize these guys get fired if they miss 5-6 important group turns in a row? LOL
last 5 moths...ALL this bodes well for little mpel...expecially with the enacting of the new beautiful resort in Manilla with over 600,000 visitors? watch and see mpel is going up ...goos.
I guess everyone who sold over $40 is an idiot? They should have rode it all the way down like squeezetracker.