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Melco Crown Entertainment Limited Message Board

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  • Jim,
    The useless blitherings of Shuli Renn and james detar and other pseudo-journalists knowing nothing about the markets, these stocks or the industry but foaming the stories as told by short hedge fund interns (LOL), or our own Shirley Mason, desperately it seems attempting to dis people posting anything worth reading here and distort facts and conflate issues on all of her aliases (drjackoff, toast, idiotpumper, matrixtrade, janetate, blaqnite, fcaholley, fcanyc, fcaimbecile and all the rest, including now trying to use a fake "tony" alias after tony himself dissed drjackoff for months on end here), may give some casual readers here a cluttered view of every relevant issue. A really funny one recently was Shirley's dthe98 alias suggesting Philippine residents can't gamble in Manila - they are 70%of GGR there.

    There is no "new" non-solicitation initiative. It has always been "illegal" for foreigners to solicit Chinese Nationals for the purpose of encouraging mainlanders to go gambling in casinos away from China's own Macau. The recent and marked proliferation of gambling venues in Vietnam, Cambodia, Russia on top of the pre-existing venues (Australia, Singapore, Manila, Vegas, Korea,) has intensified competition for players from all categories, but the particular renewed enforcement of the standing non-solicitation issue is with regard to promotors from away actively advertising group tours of mainlanders to travel to China adjacent properties by the busload. See the dovetail to the group vs individual visa

    The big, high quality, well-funded, rules compliant VIP tour promotors will continue to dominate whereever they set up, responding to clients requests to take them, esp right now while Beijing has Macau under spotlights. Even so, the big tours control ~80% of RCV there. Sun City now has at least 19 cage rooms in Macau, incl a new floor at MPEL's Altira and just opened in WYNN's refurb VIP area, but also has expanded to Manila, Korea, and other venues.

  • I thought that the Macau casinos were NOT allowed to solicit Chinese gamblers (VIPS) to v[sit their other casino destinations ? That is probably why Ho made the comment about Chinese VIPS already were going to Manilas other casinos before COD opened.

  • For casinos in Manila's gaming strip, more is better
    BY ARADHANA ARAVINDAN AND NEIL JEROME MORALES
    SINGAPORE/MANILA, March 2 Sun Mar 1, 2015 4:00pm EST

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    (Reuters) - More than three years after opening ultra-luxe nightclub Pangaea in Singapore's glitzy Marina Bay Sands, owner Michael Van Cleef Ault is now betting that Manila's casinos will be able to draw rich punters and partygoers through his doors.

    The founder of some of the world's most popular luxury clubs launched two nightclubs in casino operator Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd's $1 billion-plus City of Dreams casino-resort, hoping to capitalise on rising wealth in the Philippines, which last year was the fastest growing Asian economy after China.

    The increase in the number of wealthy Chinese gamblers fleeing Macau amid Beijing's intensifying crackdown on corruption is also likely to work in Manila's favour: VIPs are already frequenting casinos in locales such as Australia.

    Macau, the world's biggest gambling hub, is due to post February gambling revenues on Monday, which analysts expect to fall by up to 55 percent versus 40 percent growth a year ago.

    "We want to bring more people to Manila, make Manila more of a club destination, a destination for other things, for luxury, for clubbing and these integrated resorts will only add to that," Ault told Reuters at the newly opened Pangaea in Manila, with its animal skin and gold-dipped feather decor.

    Melco's City of Dreams is the second of four integrated resorts licensed for Entertainment City, Manila's much-smaller version of the Las Vegas gaming strip. The first casino, the $1.2 billion Solaire, is seeing a pick up in business after intensifying efforts to attract more high-rollers.

    The casinos are central to the government's aim to boost tourism and the economy, but challenges include Manila's dilapidated infrastructure and concerns over safety and corruption, problems that have limited foreign investment in the Philippines for years.

    In its most recent published data, industry regulator the Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corp (Pagcor) said gross gaming revenues rose by a tenth to $2.2 billion in 2013 from a year ago, a figure dwarfed by Macau's $45.2 billion revenues and Singapore's $7 billion intake in the same year.

    Melco's ties to Macau junkets, the businesses that connect wealthy punters to casinos, and high-rollers could encourage its existing Chinese VIP clientele to visit Manila, analysts say.

    But Manila's main attraction for casino operators is its thriving local gambling market. The regulator expects gross gaming revenues in the Philippines to rise to $6-$7 billion by 2020, when all four casino-resorts open.

    "Ultimately, what will underpin this property, is really first and foremost the domestic market and people who are already coming here," Melco Crown co-Chairman Lawrence Ho told reporters at the casino's opening ceremony.

    The Philippines relies on Chinese VIPs for about 30 percent of its gaming revenues, compared to over 70 percent in Macau, brokerage Macquarie says.

    Entertainment City has two other casino licensees - Japan's Universal Entertainment Corp, which is opening a $2 billion casino-resort in 2016, as well as Alliance Global Group Inc and Genting Hong Kong Ltd, partners in casino-hotel firm Travellers International Hotel Group Inc that will start operations in 2018.

    More casino openings will encourage more visitors to the area, and attractions like the City of Dream's clubs, the DreamWorks Animation indoor theme park and Hollywood actor Robert De Niro's Nobu Hotel will also boost its appeal.

    "It helps to show that it's a serious destination with great all-round facilities," said Greg Unsworth, the head of PricewaterhouseCoopers Singapore's technology, media and telecommunications practice. ($1 = 44.0800 Philippine pesos) (Additional reporting by Farah Master in Hong Kong; Editing by Emily Kaiser and Miral Fahmy)

  • Thx for the update, squeeze. Well done!!

    tf

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Feb GGR numbers get reported probably Tuesday and, again old news, they will be awful as everyone knows, but from a quant valuation perspective (just ask the 5 largest holders other than Packer and Ho LOL) that is more than discounted in the oversold shares already... Meanwhile, fun to document again that it is more than a few other pm see "value" here: Blackrock, Oppenheimer, Harris and another 7 or so well established value funds taking up all they can get sub $30, and all began buying/adding large last summer too.

    Herro's Oakmark Intl fund is the largest holder of MPEL now. Portfolio mgr Herro bought 10m+ shares in the Sep Q (so between $27 and $37/share), and another 11.3m+ shares during the December Q (so between $21 and $27), and now owns 21m+ ADS shares.

    Owner Name Date Shared Held Change (Shares) Change (%) Value (in 1,000s)
    HARRIS ASSOCIATES L P 12/31/2014 21,063,500 11,307,300 115.90 505,945

  • Noted a few times here since last summer -- value funds are returning/adding hard to MPEL shares as the momo guys left: "we know the value pm replaced the momo crowd in these shares starting mid-2014, and most of the biggest holders continued to add during the Sep and Dec Qs as per the 13Fs -- so did Ho and Packer via the $300m of buybacks since September."

    Here's what Oakmont Int'l's pm (Dave Herro) told VI journal (before the December 13F was published two weeks ago showing that Herro's fund aded 11m shares of MPEL 4q and now has 21m+ shares largest holder):

    "The keys to investment success, says David Herro, are skill in valuation and having the discipline to actually buy low and sell high. He would know.

    He’s seen it all from his vantage
    point as one of the industry’s top
    international investors – Morningstar
    named him Foreign Equity Manager
    of the Decade in 2010 – but even
    David Herro is impressed with the level of
    economic turbulence today. “There’s always
    a lot going on,” he says, “but we’re
    probably closer to a peak than a trough on
    that front right now.”

    Herro has proven more than capable
    in navigating turbulence. He manages or
    co-manages some $55 billion for Chicagobased
    Harris Associates, and the Oakmark
    International Fund he’s run since 1992."

    "We recently bought shares [MPEL], one of six
    license holders to own and operate casinos
    in Macau. Macau-related stocks have
    been hit by a variety of concerns regarding
    corruption, visa restrictions, credit conditions
    and regulatory changes. None of
    that, however, impacts our view that the
    Macau gambling market is a double-digit
    grower long-term as increasing supply is
    comfortably absorbed by insatiable gambling
    demand from China’s rising middle
    class. This is a typical type of idea for us:
    there’s an industry under pressure, we find
    a player in it with distinguishing features
    we find appealing, and we place a bet that
    short-term problems are not indicative of
    structural tailwinds going forward."

  • i made over $2 million since the beginning of 2015
    My stocks and options have been incredible
    Nflx $330 call options
    $310 AMZN calls
    AAPL $100 calls
    I made $600,000 on cyber security stocks
    11,000 shares FEYE from $29
    6000 CYBR @ $28- stopped out @ $64
    1000 PANW from $62
    4000 CRM @$33 -split adjusted

  • goog title for article to learn that the author joins the pile of journalists noting that Feb gaming numbers will be awful... he quotes Wong as "shocked" that Feb is likely down some 50% because VIP and other high rollers did not play during Golden Week as compared with 2014? Someone ought to show him the calendar scheduling of CNY YOY. As most posters who understand the dynamics have discussed here since October, we can expect February numbers will be awful, and that will likely continue on for the quarter if not into the 2Q numbers... More towel tossing ahead, or are the bulls such as David Bain correct that the GGR bottom is in now that February is over? We know Vegas had a bump in table play from April through July last year (esp May and June), and we know the value pm replaced the momo crowd in these shares starting mid-2014, and most of the biggest holders continued to add during the Sep and Dec Qs as per the 13Fs -- so did Ho and packer via the $300m of buybacks since September.

    One thing is clear now, only half of the analysts following the group still have BUY ratings on the group -- that is just about the level this pack had in 2012 with LVS, MGM and WYNN stocks all down to about half their 52 week highs at the time. More recently, recalling that the 100% OF THESE ANALYSTS had BUY ratings on group until Lawrence Ho reset mass expectations in early August (while Steve Wynn, Jim Murren and Shel Adelson were still calling for a turnaround 4Q14), and then only 3 lowered their ratings to neutral/hold, deja vu contrarian nature of the "consensus" analyst ratings on the Macau names (group think) round 5 since early 2012?

  • goog "Melco Crown’s Ho Sees Pick Up in Manila With New Casino" for the other referenced Bloomnberg article.

    Also good to see macau's new "social secretary" clarify his comments on visas -- they want less of the "ultra cheap shopping tours" ilk mainland visitors, and would like to see more visitors coming into Macau on "individual visas" -- you know, the kind that actually stay and play, and spend some money on restaurants and food while they are there... This guy also made special note of using the new 24 bridge to ease congestion during cruch periods, and told reporters they want Beijing's help spreading mainland scheduling over times other than Golden Weeks, as well as the need to accelerate infrastrucutre projects to ease friciton and getting around for tourists and Macaunese people alike.

    Seems he was directed to clarify the misguided remarks Shuli Renn and many other journalists and weak analysts spewed about regarding his earlier remarks that they want to reduce mainland gaming on Macau. One day soon the bs will be over and Macau can regain a sense of normalcy...

    Also good to see WYNN has apparently gained comfort that phone betting by VIP is not a problem as long as the bets are placed through representatives in the cage rooms, another sign Beijing and Macau govts are rethinking how far to press the Golden Goose that Macau represents for Macau and China, say nothing of Macau's employment and economic development there and in surrounding areas. Perhaps the success of other venues is gaining the central planners' attention now.

  • missed this fun note last week... goes along nicely with Ho commenting that he expects COD Manila will do better than McQuarie's published estimate of 26% of Pagcor's estimated $4.36B of GGR for 2016.

    MANILA, Philippines - Leisure estate and gaming firm Belle Corp. expects revenues to grow bigger in the near to medium term especially due to the lease and operating agreements with Macau casino giant Melco Crowne Ltd.

    Belle CFO Manuel Gana said in the nine months ending September last year, the company booked P1.2 billion in revenue from the lease to Melco of the 6.2 hectare property where the City of Dreams Manila stands. In 2013, Belle realized revenues of P1.3 billion from the lease.

    These figures, Gana said, are seen to rise further as City of Dreams IS BEGINNING TO ATTRACT HIGH ROLLERS [emphasis added] and consumers and generate foot traffic.

    For this year, lease revenues from the City of Dreams property is expected to hit P1.4 billion.

    Apart from the lease revenues, Belle will also be realizing a share in earnings from City of Dreams’ gaming operations through its 78.7 percent subsidiary Premium Leisure Corp., which has an operating agreement with Melco.

    City of Dreams Manila soft-opened on Dec. 14, 2014 and had a grand launch last Feb. 2. It covers about two hectares of gaming space, more than 900 hotel rooms operated under three hotel brands (namely Crown, Hyatt and Nobu), the DreamPlay indoor amusement park, and approximately two hectares of restaurant and retail space.

    Belle also owns significant real estate assets in and around Tagaytay City, encompassing about 800 hectares of land available for future development.

    The Sy family consolidated its gaming assets including its stake in City of Dreams Manila under PLC...

    City of Dreams Manila is one of the four integrated resort and casinos licensed to operate in Entertainment City, which is expected to become a prime new leisure destination in the country.

  • squeeze in freeforum, advocating to sell

  • Reply to

    It's been brutal

    by colgateguy12 Feb 25, 2015 10:55 AM

    john....didn't take long....

    a new negative piece today......no rest for the weary.....then again...Ren is probably sipping a gin & juice and eating a A Lorcha at the Aurora as she overlooks the very area she trashes...

  • Reply to

    Top 7-8 Junkets control of the Macau RCV

    by squeezetracker Feb 27, 2015 2:11 PM

    the big if.. opened Golden Nugget AC and Foxwoods CT as well as a few others.. the heyday honeymoon always ends and they become grind joints.. look at the The Atlantic Club ( old Golden Nugget ) shut down last year and Foxwoods has had their own set of financial problems.. there will be a lot supply coming online end of 2015 and 2016 2017.. the monster growth numbers are over.. you can trade MPEL but that is about all I would do.. the $4 to $45 was a nice move.. all bets down, no more bets!

  • Over weekend, there is demonstration/riot in HK new territory, to punish shops who sold to mainlanders.
    The region is getting ridiculous. Most likely USA is behind this conspiracy to anarchy.. so that USA will take it , free of charge.
    anyway, if USA wants WW3, make sure we all know when to run or short with them

  • Reply to

    Top 7-8 Junkets control of the Macau RCV

    by squeezetracker Feb 27, 2015 2:11 PM

    Worst case may already be priced in @ $23- $24 pps. If it goes up on bad news we will know that we have reached a bottom. I would expect a knee-jerk reaction downward and then recover by close on monday ( if it is at a bottom). JMHO

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    mgm

    by paulchironis Feb 25, 2015 9:49 AM

    See the news on MGM!! Stock still went down. This entire sector is death.

    MGM should of been up atleast $1.00 buck today.. Closed down. I don't see how the rest of the casino space can go up before MGM. MGM will have its best year in 15 years this year and even this stock stills acts like death and trades at a discount to all it's peers! MPEL trades at a premium!

  • Reply to

    Top 7-8 Junkets control of the Macau RCV

    by squeezetracker Feb 27, 2015 2:11 PM

    the junket game has changed and will never be what it once was.. minus 55 percent yoy for februarvsomething is seriously wrong.. the chinese government has their own agenda and it is too hard to predict.. MPEL trading $23.81 with febs numbers to be released before market monday.. you are way over you head in this.. definitely not a professional.. the real professionals caught on in june/july when you were laughing at everyone!

  • Now Shirley (drjackoff, toast, janetate, matrixtrade blaqniteet al) is posing as Tony? What an idiot will do with his time. LOL

    Legit posters/readers here will notice that Tony's posts have actually been sincere of late while Shirley's posing as Tony here includes reference to "art thou", an anachronistic and decidedly western concept. Tony is Asian and has never used such vernacular.

  • Looks like they may have lit up the lamp on the buyback program again today. Having done $300m since November, they have another ~$200m to go before the upcoming shareholder meeting. It would be greatto see them spend it all and reload another $500m or more and get a lot of "round two" bought in before the group valuations improve meaningfully.

    Given that Packer and Ho are a couple of the richest billionaires in the world and together already have beneficial control of 68% of the stock and are both very bullish on the MPEL franchise, an aggressive repurchase program right now, just ahead of numbers ramping on COD Manila (phase 1 opened this month) and opening Studio City (phase 1 opens 3Q) would be entirely consistent with they have called their "sophisticated board," especially since Japan is seemingly on stall.

MPEL
24.02-0.23(-0.95%)Feb 27 4:00 PMEST

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