Forget about the price (marked to market) chart. Look at the volume chart. Big volume right before the close. Even the incompetents at the Fed know something is strange in biotechs. CYNK anyone?
Papa, the company succeeded in transferring genes to red blood cells is bluebird bio. I agree that gene therapy for CF would be a big challenge and it may take more than 10 years, but transplanting normal CFTR to the lung cell nucleus are being attempted in UK as I said before.
Thank you Rojo for this update on VX 509. You may be right about the decision to do the phase 3 trials for VX 509 in RA in house, but given the competition for existing biologics already FDA approved and being used widely to treat the autoimmune diseases 509 could treat, is the cost of the lengthy trials in the various disease indications likely to result in a significant market for an oral small molecule alternative with the efficacy described above? Is it safer/ more effective than existing biologics, or is it simply going to marketed as more convenient but just equally effective/safe as existing parenteral treatments which are already widely adopted ? Would the latter advantage alone be likely to be worth the cost of development, by Vertex or is this better to license, like VX 787 to a larger pharma (if one was interested) which is better funded to absorb the development costs?
Van Vollenhoven group presented the data in Annual European Congress of Rheumatology and ACR 20 of 61-62% with various doses, Moderator of the conference at the conclusion did talk positively about this drug's phase II B trial with Methotrexate. This event on 06/14/2014 is now published and available in Medscape. I think VX 809 data was so important that VX 509 became non event full. With Hep C program gone, I think VRTX may will move forward with phase III. VX 509 now has a name " Decernotinib" and also a web site IP has been reserved for it and this makes me think that work is in progress.
I also have done some back ground work on VX 970 and it seems like VRTX has been working on ATR kinase inhibitors for a while and they have portfolio of molecules,
Good luck to all longs.
No drug, especially one that does not cure anything, can be successful price at $300,000. Obamacare is not covering it, nor can insurance companies afford to cover it.
Unfortunately, macro events looks like they will overwhelm VRTX and others. Closed out and will get back in once the dust settles in the 80s (hopefully not lower).
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Outflow from sector ETFs are pulling the larger cap biopharmas down, and Yellen's comments on the sector did not help. Better safe with a defensive position than sorry if the overdue correction occurs.
The cost of drug research is not unique to Vertex. It is largely mandated by the federal law enforced by the FDA. The difference between the Vertex of 15 years ago (the time of the publication of Werth's first book prior to the approval of any Vertex drug) and now is like night and day. Business people are at the helm of the company and are prioritizing development resources which has resulted in financial stability of the company, Look at the street's analyst's average revenue and eps projections for VRTX in 2015 and you can see the science is finally going to generate a sustained profit with 809/770 being approved by the FDA. The R&D focus of the company will continue to be pursued with a reasonable allocation of the company's assets to allow for future growth. The initial vision of the founder will finally be realized but within the context of responsible financial stewardship for shareholders, That is why the stock is quite stable at the current stock price, and with each press release detailing further progress in the approval process for it's pipeline assets, the share price is only likely to rise further given the growth potential of these breakthrough treatments.
After the first year everything is profit??
How are they thinking here is a snippet form an article.
For starters, the science at Vertex is so complex and costly that a voyage to Mars looks easy by comparison. The company’s visionary founder and CEO Josh Boger tells his staff at one point, “If you give me 20 years and a half-trillion dollars, I guarantee I can put people on Mars and bring them back. I guarantee it … But making a new drug that changes people’s lives is almost beyond human understanding.” Reading Werth’s two books makes that a believable statement.
Vertex’s science is also potentially beyond our ability to fund. The company’s burn rate is spectacular. For much of the book, the company hemorrhages about $60,000 an hour.
Then at least buy some married puts. If u rode 65$ to 95$ you should have plenty available to buy some cheap insurance. Obviously, with a short percentage like it has/had many have not hedged.
You have no clue right? This stock is all about the CF franchise which recently met it's primary and secondary endpoints is a large phase III trial...Quotes about historical ratios etc.are similar backward looking and does not reflect the significant event that just happened.
Buy low, sell high..... 19X book, 23X sales. revenues went off a cliff QoQ. Insiders sold 35% of holdings in last 6 months.Low short percentage. Wish you the best.